ROTW -- Sun 2/26 GP R11 -- Fountain of Youth Stakes

[TGAB]

The race of the week will be the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream this Sunday, 2/26/12. It will be up early Saturday afternoon.

[Silver Charm]

Thx TG! Obviously a key and interesting race!!

[MonmouthGuy]

Algorithims scratch makes this race hard to bet. Was hoping to get Discreet Dancer at 5/2 or better.  Don\'t think he is value as an 8/5 second choice.

[Lost Cause]

MonmouthGuy Wrote:
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> Algorithims scratch makes this race hard to bet.
> Was hoping to get Discreet Dancer at 5/2 or
> better.  Don\'t think he is value as an 8/5 second
> choice.


Agreed...the only bet that seems to make sense now is to hammer the tri of 5/7/4

[Lost Cause]

Lost Cause Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> MonmouthGuy Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----

>
>
> Agreed...the only bet that seems to make sense now
> is to hammer the tri of 5/7/4


Or maybe not!!looks like he improved a little from 2 to 3 huh??

[MonmouthGuy]

I didn\'t touch the race, but Union Rags going off as 6/5 second choice w/o Alogorithims in race was crazy. DD as 4/5 favorite---insane.

[miff]

Race comes up a little above average average,visuals aside. Beyer of 95 with ground and weight may produce a mini TG top,if JB sees it the same as Beyer.Small problem in that 2nd horse, Newsdad,with a dirt TG 10, as previous best, only beaten 4 lengths while carrying 1.20 less points of weight while losing more ground than UR on the first turn but less on the last turn.No other 2 turn dirt routes on the day.

UR leaps to the top of the pile for now,very strong last 5/16ths in 30 flat easing under the wire galloping out well.Perfect dynamics set up for UR, ugly rail, negative speed, best path.

Men separate from the boys next 30+ days.


Mike

[TGJB]

Mike-- right on the gaps limiting how fast it could be. Also, I wasn\'t paying that close attention, but given Jeff Siegel\'s comment on HRTV BEFORE the race, I\'m going to take a good look at the rail both days.

Yes also on the Derby contenders now start sorting themselves out, though I would say 45 days. But there\'s already a big problem looming-- coupla guys clearly have horses exploding recently, will they be able to do so in Ky.?

[miff]

\"Mike-- right on the gaps limiting how fast it could be. Also, I wasn\'t paying that close attention, but given Jeff Siegel\'s comment on HRTV BEFORE the race.

JB,

Went into the day standing with DD until I sensed the bad speed/rail from Sat and then Sunday.TAP\'s Liberty Bound,6th race, sealed the deal for me when swallowed, albeit a fast pace.

If you eliminate one or two front running layovers over the two days(which is the correct way to establish bias, not necessarily dead rail) you will probably get the dead rail X.The negative speed factor,a separate issue,established for both days.

Head on of FOY shows DD with Johnny V off the rail for very conscious bias outfit.

Mike

[big18741]

Miff

It appeared Union Rags maintained a straight course in the stretch for the first time in his career.I didn\'t see the head on though.How was he?

Last year he was going in and out when the jock threw a cross or used the stick.No whip yesterday just a hand ride.

[miff]

Big,

Straight as a string thru the lane. He wears a shadow roll and is still very young so as long as he was not stressing on a limb or something like that, I would not worry about last year.

Connections gotta be on cloud nine with an APPARENT easy win.Is he bouncing today or laying down in his stall?


Mike

[phil23]

Great discussion.  

According to Trakus, UR ran 10 feet more than NP, or just over a length.  

Miff - would you say that you think DD was off the rail and therefore WILL NOT get a dead rail designation?  That\'s a pretty big decision.  If he gets the X, then totally eligible to rebound, if not, then it\'s all the distance challenge questions, etc..

[miff]

Phil,

X or not for the rail,the inside was not the place to be for two days.DD was also cutting the front end on a track generally unkind to speed.The issues of dead rail and negative speed are two separate issues although dead rail days are often negative speed days also.

DD may be a foot rattling 7f/miler type that do not do well going 48 halves, snugged up, with the closers on top of them.He\'ll probably cut back in distance next start.He\'s fast, would not give up on him as a horse,though probably not a Classic type.


Mike

[justwin]

I am going to reserve judgement on how great a performance UR had. the fractions were very slow and the final time was not impressive. Yes, he did it with ease but now he only has one more race to get ready for the 1 1/4 mile race. his seasoning for that final furlong in the KYD will be an issue. We shall see but I think he needs to be really tested in the next race.

[sighthound]

When is Pletcher going to give up on trying to get Storm Cat line to go classic distances?