ROTW -- Sun 2/26 GP R11 -- Fountain of Youth Stakes

[alm]

Nice horse, beat a bunch of sprinters and slow slugs, big deal.  If he scares off any quality stock and beats up again on the local colony in the FLA Derby, he\'s a bet against favorite in Kentucky.

[ajkreider]

Not sure what counts as \"very slow\" and \"not impressive\" - but those fractions are completely respectable for a two turn race at GP.  Marginally slower first half than, say, the Donn - but home quicker.  Same time as El Padrino\'s slop romp at the distance.

But this is what figs are for, anyway.

[justwin]

Its not a great comparison but the other races during the same day (excluding the 6f races) ran faster splits but the races were shorter. if you project out the final time there will not be much separation between the maiden special weight race, the starter allowance race and the optional claiming race as compared to UR. If the track slowed up during the day thats another story. Visually he looked good but many other quality horses would have also. I doubt any of the other horses will be in the derby. the runner up has an outside shot. As you said, we shall see what the figs are.

[ajkreider]

If you\'re doing your own analysis of the race, one thing worth remembering is the the configuration of 1 1/6 mile races at GP.  There is almost no run to the first turn - as opposed to a 7 furlong or mile race which is a straight shot run out of the chute to only one turn.  There is also less stretch run, since the 1 1/16 races end at the alternate finish line, short of the usual finish.  So, substantially more (as a %) of the race is on the turns, even compared to the 1 1/8 races, let alone a mile.

Also worth noting is that the other three races were slowing down - the 7fs substantially.  UR cruising around doing 24s.  

Sure, it didn\'t set the world on fire.  But no one should look at that race and say, \"slow\".

[big18741]

Last two Florida Derby winners that went on to win the Derby were also beating up on \"sprinters and slow slugs\"

Big Brown went to Ky. favored and Barbaro was a 2nd choice.
Florida Derby is a long ways off but the only hole I can punch in Union Rags so far might be pedigree.Dixie Union over a Gone West mare doesn\'t scream ten furlongs.Maybe Nijinski and his daughter Terpsichorist on the bottom gets him the needed stamina.

Rags wandering in the stretch cost him the Juvenile as much as the wide IMO but he seems to have put that behind him.Sheet is gonna look good heading into the Florida Derby and Matz already figured out a way to win one of these.I\'m not ready to give in to him if he does win the next one,but he looks real so far.

If you want competitive preps(at least on paper) check out the San Felipe a week from Saturday.

[justwin]

Looking forward to San Felipe. Played Fed Biz @ 60-1 in the future book when I was in Vegas in january.

[big18741]

Good play at those odds if Fed Biz goes on to make the Derby.He could be a nice one.

He probably jumped way up in his last win.Now the issue becomes earnings and you don\'t want him gutted trying to get there.Baffert on a ridiculous roll now-you have to hope he has something left for May.The rest of the possible San Felipe field looks pretty tightly bunched.