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Author Topic: On a Scale of 1 to 10  (Read 1907 times)

Silver Charm

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On a Scale of 1 to 10
« on: March 02, 2012, 02:38:38 PM »
I\'m told in the BC Juvy....Hansen bled a 10. Not being an expert on this type of thing I am alao told that mentally this can be a very very bad expereince for a young horse. Considering how Hansen seemed to almost run off early in his last, offer NO resistance in his last when tackled in the stretch and left town from South Florida faster than someone who owes four different bookies....why is he a play tomorrow? Assuming what I was told is true? And I feel like this is a reliable source....Hmmm
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Silver Charm

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Re: On a Scale of 1 to 10
« Reply #1 on: March 04, 2012, 10:30:52 AM »
Could not have been more wrong here. Nice effort and 95 Beyer which is what Rags ran last week who has already been annoited.

Some very very good pictures of this one floating around Facebook and other places. The women love this guy. Which from a Fan standpoint is never a bad thing.
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MonmouthGuy

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Re: On a Scale of 1 to 10
« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2012, 02:34:36 PM »
I got this one almost completely wrong. Thought with Hansen hung wide on first turn that he was going to get used up. Finnegan\'s Wake will be interesting to watch going forward. I imagine Motion will point him to the Blue Grass.
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ajkreider

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Re: On a Scale of 1 to 10
« Reply #3 on: March 04, 2012, 03:33:07 PM »
Having a tough time seeing any of the also-rans doing anything interesting.  Hansen and My Adonis spotted FW weight and he made up no ground on them in the last 5/16ths and was 6 lengths back of MA at the wire.

That he was passing everybody late looks to say more about the everybody.
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plasticman

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Re: On a Scale of 1 to 10
« Reply #4 on: March 04, 2012, 03:46:28 PM »
Why were you wrong, did you find out that he didnt actually bleed? What does his win yesterday have to do with whether he bled or not?
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Silver Charm

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Re: On a Scale of 1 to 10
« Reply #5 on: March 04, 2012, 04:20:57 PM »
Well you may be right but I didnt want to post and osund like sour grapes either. Hansen ran well and won. Came off the last turn like a racehorse and good for him. As Monmouth Guy said between the questions about being hung wide and maybe what I had heard at 4/5 he was an easy bet against.

He has now already shipped out to Turfway where I guess he is going back to Poly in the Lanes End and then the Blue Grass or just one of them. So he will be tough to figure on derby Day unless he begins to run better figures.

Which before yesterday were not much.....
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bstaubs22

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Re: On a Scale of 1 to 10
« Reply #6 on: March 04, 2012, 05:18:00 PM »
Maker says Wood will be next
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alm

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Re: On a Scale of 1 to 10
« Reply #7 on: March 05, 2012, 10:56:30 PM »
At this early point in the prep season you have very little to work with in terms of looking for the bigger priced Derby horse.  For sure, you won\'t get decent odds on Hansen or Union Rags in the Future pools.  If there is a logical longer priced runner, you\'ve got to look at Gemologist, who\'s actually won at Churchill.  Not at the biggest numbers as a two year old, but you will be betting on the hope his best has yet to come.  Until something else reveals itself and assuming you want to duck the two big two year olds, this is your Future pool runner.
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ajkreider

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Re: On a Scale of 1 to 10
« Reply #8 on: March 06, 2012, 08:07:04 AM »
If you were making book on whether Gemologist gets to the gate, what odds would you give him - given that\'s he\'s not made a start yet this year.

23-1 seems a very short price.  Even with a win in the Rebel and Arkansas, he goes to the gate at double digits (Behind Rags, Hansen, El Padrino, and the West Coast leader)
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miff

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Re: On a Scale of 1 to 10
« Reply #9 on: March 06, 2012, 10:41:16 AM »
It may have changed from just a few years back but vets would grade bleeders on a scale from 1-4. Grade 1 was deemed to have no bearing on a horses performance. Graded 2 subject to opinion of performance. Grade 3 and 4 were deemed to have adversely affected performance.Guess the 10 for Hansen was the top level(4)

Beth, can you clue us in on present grading re bleeders.


Mike
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miff

phil23

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Re: On a Scale of 1 to 10
« Reply #10 on: March 06, 2012, 03:46:12 PM »
Based on TG #\'s it seems to me there is a standout bet for the race.  He was very fast (for this crop) as an early 2yo, has kept excellent company, moved through his top to a big (but not crazy) number in his 1st start at 3, and should relish more distance.  And he\'s available between 40:1 and 50:1.
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ajkreider

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Re: On a Scale of 1 to 10
« Reply #11 on: March 06, 2012, 04:13:35 PM »
And, he\'s running this weekend, after posting a huge work at PMM??  

Just a guess.
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phil23

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Re: On a Scale of 1 to 10
« Reply #12 on: March 06, 2012, 04:22:46 PM »
A very good guess.
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sighthound

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Re: On a Scale of 1 to 10
« Reply #13 on: March 07, 2012, 12:38:04 AM »
1 through 4, as you described.

Here\'s some good background for handicappers.

http://www.nytha.com/pdf/the_lasix_question.pdf
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alm

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Re: On a Scale of 1 to 10
« Reply #14 on: March 07, 2012, 08:27:06 AM »
Well, I have zero insight on why the horse hasn\'t appeared yet.  However, if you are right and 23-1 is short, it\'s short for a reason.  Until there\'s a story about problems with this one, I have to assume someone likes him.  My point was that given what we know, he\'s my best bet against the two top horses in the future pools.  That\'s all.
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