So Incredibly Sad, So Incredibly Stupid

[richiebee]

Ed Fountaine had an article in todays New York Post titled \"NYRA Looks To Explain
Breakdowns\"

So incredibly sad: 13 catastrophic breakdowns since January 8. Likely there were
some catastrophic breakdowns during training hours, for which no statistics are made
public.

So incredibly obvious: \"The one common thread to the breakdowns is the injured
horses were among the cheapest on the grounds. Four were bottom level $7500
claimers, and four were maiden claimers in the 12.5K - 16.5K range.\"

So incredibly stupid: NYRA VP and Director of Racing PJ Campo\'s response: \"Little by
little, were raising the bottom, but you are at the mercy of the horse population
you have\"

OK let me get this straight. You raise \"the bottom\" from 7.5K claimers to 10K
claimers. You will have mostly the same horses competing, and the same amount of
breakdowns.

I have addressed the \"at the mercy of the horse population\" before. It is the
responsibility of the \"VP and Director of Racing\" to make sure the horse population
supports a certain level of racing. It is the responsibility of the Director of
Racing to make sure all stalls are productive, even if this means kicking out some
of the \"old boys\" and recruiting trainers from other circuits.

Inept and clueless. Catastrophic breakdowns. Short fields of the worst quality
horseflesh ever to compete on the once prestigious NYRA circuit. A snapped bone, the
all too familiar and horrifying curtain,eventually a humane end to life after a few
terrifying and unimaginable moments.

NYRA is dying a slower death, but is dying nonetheless. And the silence of the
publisher of the Daily Racing Form, an old crony of Charles Hayward,is deafening.

[sighthound]

Well said.  

Well. said.

[plasticman]

So incredibly true.

(what you wrote)

[colin12]

You are so right. The silence is unbelieveable. DRF hasn\'t written one article about this. The whole thing is sad

[BitPlayer]

Au contraire.

http://www.drf.com/news/aqueduct-nyra-officials-baffled-rise-breakdowns-inner-track

I confess that I don\'t play much of anything this time of year, and I don\'t play cheap claimers any time of year, but I also wonder whether the problem is really the quality of the stock.  This is about a year-over-year difference in breakdowns.  Is the stock at the Big A really that much worse than last year or the year before?  What\'s different is the increased purse money being offered this year, which increases the incentive of horsemen to run animals of questionable soundness.

I\'ve been reading \"Thinking, Fast and Slow.\"  It\'s really a fascinating book.  Two of the common analytical errors identified in the book that seem relevant to this thread are attributing to much significance to small data sets and assigning too much credit or blame to the people in charge of an enterprise.

[richiebee]

BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

 
> I\'ve been reading \"Thinking, Fast and Slow.\"  It\'s
> really a fascinating book.  Two of the common
> analytical errors identified in the book that seem
> relevant to this thread are attributing to much
> significance to small data sets and assigning too
> much credit or blame to the people in charge of an
> enterprise.

New York racing is in the midst of a decade long decline in terms of
quality of racing and national significance. We are not just talking
about winter racing; the quality of racing at Saratoga and Belmont
is not what it was ten years ago. This is a \"small data set\"?

With regards to accountability of leadership, if Hayward and Campo were
the GM and Head Coach of a pro sports franchise which lost consistently,
or the President and VP of a publicly held corporation with a record like
NYRA\'s, these guys would have been history long ago.

[miff]

\"With regards to accountability of leadership, if Hayward and Campo were
the GM and Head Coach of a pro sports franchise which lost consistently,
or the President and VP of a publicly held corporation with a record like
NYRA\'s, these guys would have been history long ago\"

Bee,

Agree on Hayward,a no brainer, best effort notwithstanding.You forgot this current Board Of Directors, a combination of politically appointed stooges and out of touch old racing names.

Would cut PJ Campo a bit of slack in that he is under a mandate to run the number of winter race days by the NYSRW Board Albany crowd.Their lust for money from racing is insatiable.

Horsemen throughout the Northeast and the country planning to come for the money when possible.Many calling PJ looking for races to be written for certain of their horses,a good thing. Be prepared to be buried under an avalanche of turf racing which is one thing PJ has gone overboard with.


NYRA giving away big money but the cards still horrible in winter, almost unplayable despite NYRA TV shills insulting our intelligence about \"interesting\" 5-6 horse maiden claiming NY Bred races.

Spring Belmont and Saratoga racing should be off the charts due to purse explosion. NYRA will take credit in spite of having contributed nothing to the probable impending boom in NY racing.


Mike

[BitPlayer]

Richie -

My point about the small data set was specific to the breakdown issue.

I can\'t really speak to how competent Hayward and Campo are, but I do know that they\'ve been facing strong headwinds: a dysfunctional NY political system more intent on generating campaign contributions (the slots and franchise renewal fiascos) and patronage jobs (OTB, NYSRWB) than on allowing racing to thrive; slots-fueled purses at competing tracks; the rise of the multistate trainer; reduced racing frequency for top-class animals; increased competition for the gambling dollar; and you can probably think of more.  I would argue that the decline of NY racing is more a function of all these factors than of who happened to be at the helm.

[Michael D.]

BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Richie -
>
> My point about the small data set was specific to
> the breakdown issue.
>
> I can\'t really speak to how competent Hayward and
> Campo are, but I do know that they\'ve been facing
> strong headwinds: a dysfunctional NY political
> system more intent on generating campaign
> contributions (the slots and franchise renewal
> fiascos) and patronage jobs (OTB, NYSRWB) than on
> allowing racing to thrive; slots-fueled purses at
> competing tracks; the rise of the multistate
> trainer; reduced racing frequency for top-class
> animals; increased competition for the gambling
> dollar; and you can probably think of more.  I
> would argue that the decline of NY racing is more
> a function of all these factors than of who
> happened to be at the helm.


increased competition for the gambling $ is at least 50% of the problem. new forms of gaming competition popping up in every direction made it impossible for NY racing to thrive without slots. I\'d put reduced racing frequency of top-class runners as problem #2. the middle east has a large % of the best horses in the world, and the top US based trainers run their good ones far less than they used to. folks, low level claimers/maidens running every 1/2 hour don\'t stand a chance in hell of winning the battle for the gaming buck. it\'s crap action, and few are going to make that their choice in this new gaming era.

the industry needs further consolidation.

[richiebee]

miff Wrote:

 
> Bee,
>
> Agree on Hayward,a no brainer, best effort
> notwithstanding.You forgot this current Board Of
> Directors, a combination of politically appointed
> stooges and out of touch old racing names.
>
> Would cut PJ Campo a bit of slack in that he is
> under a mandate to run the number of winter race
> days by the NYSRW Board Albany crowd.Their lust
> for money from racing is insatiable.

Miff:

To paraphrase Campo from the DRF and NY Post articles, he is at the mercy of
the horse population, but my contention is that he is responsible for
maintaining that horse population. Should have no problem finding
owners/trainers from other circuits willing to race their quality horses
during the winter months.

Of course, he would have to cut back on NYB races (and again, the only races
restricted to NYBs should be stake races) and get rid of some of the dead
weight stabled at Belmont and Aqueduct.

[richiebee]

BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Richie -
>
> My point about the small data set was specific to
> the breakdown issue.
>
> I can\'t really speak to how competent Hayward and
> Campo are, but I do know that they\'ve been facing
> strong headwinds: a dysfunctional NY political
> system more intent on generating campaign
> contributions (the slots and franchise renewal
> fiascos) and patronage jobs (OTB, NYSRWB) than on
> allowing racing to thrive; slots-fueled purses at
> competing tracks; the rise of the multistate
> trainer; reduced racing frequency for top-class
> animals; increased competition for the gambling
> dollar; and you can probably think of more.  I
> would argue that the decline of NY racing is more
> a function of all these factors than of who
> happened to be at the helm.


Bit:

Other players in the industry have been facing the same headwinds and have
not seen the precipitous drop in quality and credibility that has been
seen at NYRA.

Change at the top levels of corporate management is a component of a
successful business model. Top level management is routinely replaced for
merely maintaining the status quo. Hayward and Campo have been at the
helm of a sinking ship and are in need of replacement.

[BitPlayer]

Richie -

Who are these other players in the industry?  California? Maryland?  And even there, the entities running the tracks are not quasi-governmental (or whatever NYRA is).  Can you imagine TGJB trying to run Thoro-Graph while having to answer to the NYsRWB, the Controller, and the rest of the Albany establishment?

[richiebee]

BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Richie -
>
> Who are these other players in the industry?
> California? Maryland?  And even there, the
> entities running the tracks are not
> quasi-governmental (or whatever NYRA is).  Can you
> imagine TGJB trying to run Thoro-Graph while
> having to answer to the NYsRWB, the Controller,
> and the rest of the Albany establishment?


Bit:

Whatever you think of the quality of racing at California and Maryland,
it has not declined to the extent that it has in NY.

I\'m looking at a broader business/politics question now: The current leadership
has proven to be rather ineffective (being diplomatic here). Current
leadership has not shown me at least that they have the concern or creativity
to maintain the quality and credibility of racing in New York, whether we are
talking long term or short term.

To me whether we are talking business or politics, the above scenario is one
which calls for change. While Racing is a unique business, it is still a
business when all is said and done.

I\'ll keep JB out of this other than to say that (a) I\'m pretty sure he would
have done a better job at NYRA than current management and (b) he\'s endured a
problem employee like TGAB for all these years, so I\'m sure he would hold his
own with the politicos.

[TGJB]

Okay, I\'ll bite. Exactly what steps do you guys think should be taken by NYRA?

[jma11473]

I suppose NYRA was supposed to wave a magic wand and make horses that didn\'t exist run at in fields that didn\'t exist.

Anyone who thinks racing in Maryland hasn\'t declined more than NY needs to pull back the blinds. I know that doesn\'t lead to glib, cheesy comedy lines like richie usually delivers but c\'mon, don\'t be ridiculous comparing NY and Maryland. California can\'t even decide what surface it wants to run on.