Davidowitz on Trips

I thought this free article from the DRF online newsletter might generate a lot of useful conversation. TGJB, I won\'t participate. :-) I would simply like to read the views of others.  

http://www.drf.com/newsletter/davidowitz_092103.pdf

[Michael D.]

no access....... what is the gist of the article?

Sorry. Perhaps you have to have a  registered ID at the DRF to read it. It is about finding betting value using trips. It contains a few general trip types that sometimes don\'t get noticed and a few specific examples from recent high profile races.

[Michael D.]

i just received the email from drf (i forgot i was on that list). i will take a look and post some thoughts tomorrow.

[bdhsheets]

The link should work. Highlight it, copy and paste in browser window.

[Michael D.]

in my opinion, an excellent article. most sheet handicappers will argue that horses pinned inside behind other horses are not at a disadvantage as long as they get free run for the last quarter of a mile or so. i would argue that many speed and stalking type horses need to get free run and use their tactical speed throughout the entire race to be at their best. this topic, however, has been discussed at length on this board, and the issue will never be resolved here...... too close to WTC time anyway, let\'s start focusing on that.

>too close to WTC time anyway, let\'s start focusing on that.<

Sorry things deteriorated a bit for awhile.

I have lot\'s of \"opinions\" on horses I \"think\" are better or worse than public perceptions because of my \"subjective\" views on biased tracks, paces, trips, suspect variants and figures, subjective visual observations etc...

Unfortunately if I express them I will be forced to use words and terms like \"think\", \"may\", \"suspect\" \"error\",
\"suspect figure\", \"wrong variant\", \"subjective\" etc.. all too often for comfort around here. :-)

(I hope I at least made you chuckle) :-)

[Michael D.]

why not post your thoughts on the big races? i am quite sure nobody will have a problem with your posts. if the horses you like run well, your theories will be proven correct. i tend to agree with your style of handicapping and would be interested in seeing some of the selections you come up with.

[TGJB]

I have absolutely no problem with anyone expressing their opinions on the chances of horses in the BC races in advance.

[beyerguy]

OK, here are a few I think are vastly overrated based on my own numbers, which take into account pace rating, speed rating, weight, and early position, and a couple others for different reasons:

Aldebaran
Great Notion
Valid Video
Yankee Gentleman
Chapel Royal
Falbrav
Johar
Dynever
Hold That Tiger
Perfect Drift

I will be confidently tossing ALL of the above.  I will be stunned if any of them win on the big day.  A lot of money will be bet on those 10, but none of it mine!

[Upper Nile]

Great now you\'ve got the BC races narrowed down to about 99 horses with only a week left.  Just a quip, please take no offense.
Is it just me that notices Volponi is faster this year than last and coming-up to next weeks race with a similar pattern as he did last year?  I\'m praying for some moisture in the track just like last year.  It\'s early yet and I\'ve just glanced at the sheets but Volponi should offer value this year.  

Any thoughts on Peace Rules? I\'d love to see Peace Rules in the Classic instead of the mile-I\'ve been a sucker for front end speed in this race recently with horses like E Dubai and Old Trieste.  

Good Luck to all!

[Michael D.]

didn\'t eddie d. come flying from way back in the sprint about ten years ago at SA (maybe cardmania or something like that)? i remember i bet bird on the wire, and thought for sure it was him picking off horses one by one down the stretch. nope, he came in last i think. also, nakatani came from way back to win the sprint two years in a row.. tough bet at 3-1 or 4-1, but he did hit the 6f mark at 1:08.3 in his last race....early prediction: tough call, but agree with beyerguy, aldebaran is the fastest 6f horse, but too many horses will be in his way and he won\'t get up in time.

[beyerguy]

There are many easy tosses that were too obvious to list, so its way less than 99.  I was just looking for some thoughts on the shorter priced ones I am tossing.  

Gotta love D Wayne running a horse in the Breeder\'s Cup off a DNF line...LOL.

I\'m not a Volponi fan and I doubt I will bet him even at long odds, but he did not have an easy trip last out. He had a bit of trouble. I also made the Med Cup race a slow pace. The first two quarters were slow and then it picked up sharply in the middle. Visually, it also looked like that. That was more evidence for me.

There\'s only two possibilites for \"me\".

That pace either hurt his chances or it was neutral, but I doubt it helped him.

I haven\'t read or heard anyone agree with my assessment of that pace, so it might not be fully reflected in the odds assuming I am right to begin with. :-)

The same would hold true for Dynever who actually moved wide and impressively into the hot part of the race before coming up flat.    

I don\'t think either has enough ability to win at this time without either a fortunate trip, some improvement etc... but they might be a tad underrated.

In Dynever\'s case, I thought he was wildly overrated in the spring leading into the Belmont, but I don\'t think that\'s true now. IMHO, he has improved - just probably not enough unless the odds are VERY BIG.

[bdhsheets]

\"Is it just me that notices Volponi is faster this year than last and coming-up to next weeks race with a similar pattern as he did last year? I\'m praying for some moisture in the track just like last year. It\'s early yet and I\'ve just glanced at the sheets but Volponi should offer value this year.\"

No, it\'s you.

Volponi had an explosive line last year and had just run a new top. I loved him last year, at best neutral this time around. Dynever looks more like Volponi last year.