ROTW!!

[Lost Cause]

TG Best number horse in the race sitting off a projected speed duel..I bet with both fists and thought I was going to win a nice vacation until the unpredictable poly/turf to dirt explosion got me.. \" Instead I lost a grand on a track/race that I bet once a year and every year ask myself \"why the hell are you betting Sunland Park\"..

I\'ll have this same post after the Dubai world cup next week also..

[Themig]

Heck of a ride by John V. Why bother making the trip to Sunland?

[Lost Cause]

Themig Wrote:
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> Heck of a ride by John V. Why bother making the
> trip to Sunland?


J.V. being one of the best if not the best in the game you have to think that horse was unrateable.  He also had no choice but to stay close to the Baffert horse or risk that one stealing the race.

[Themig]

After a nights sleep reading your post I have to agree w you 100%. I was not sold on Castaway and figured JV may have been a bit aggressive through the first 3/4.

[alm]

This was not a race I took seriously, but bet Ender BECAUSE JV made the trip there.  Looking back on it, however, I conclude that TAP sent the horse because it was a good alternative (to the FLA Derby or the WOOD) for making Derby earnings, but not because he had a lot of faith in the horse.  It was a \'come to Jesus\' moment for Ender and he just proved not to have the stamina.  I think he got the best possible ride, but was not nearly good enough.  

OK, the entire West Coast colony looks weak to me this year...at Sunland they just beat up one another in what may turn out to be an unimportant race.

[MO]

Elevation of Sunland Park, New Mexico: 3730 feet

Elevation of Miami, Florida: 6 feet.

This angle steered me off Ender and I was forced to pass the race.

[alm]

Good call....I know that 6 feet for sure.  Try to build a building there.

[sekrah]

MO Wrote:
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> Elevation of Sunland Park, New Mexico: 3730 feet
>
> Elevation of Miami, Florida: 6 feet.
>
> This angle steered me off Ender and I was forced
> to pass the race.


Not much of an angle IMO.   I did a study on this once after Mine That Bird won the Derby, the jump is huge from everywhere.   If I remember correctly, Prairie Meadows is the only other \"major\" track even over 1000 (Unless you wanna count Zia Park)   You\'re going up 3,000+ feet shipping from anywhere in the country.    Daddy Nose Best shipped in from SA.

That being said, I don\'t know how anyone using TG sheets could pass this race without playing the #4 heavily.  He was a massive overlay.

[P-Dub]

MO Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Elevation of Sunland Park, New Mexico: 3730 feet
>
> Elevation of Miami, Florida: 6 feet.
>
> This angle steered me off Ender and I was forced
> to pass the race.


That\'s a variable most didn\'t think of.

[MO]

I worked at The Downs at Albuquerque and The Downs at Santa Fe for a year in 1992 as the track handicapper. Ship - ins from ANYWHERE - even Turf Paradise at 1,124 ft - were an automatic toss until they had time to acclimate. The same goes for humans. If you like to drink for example, and 2 beers gets you the desired buzz in Miami, in New Mexico it will knock you on your ass.

There ae of course exceptions to every rule and IMO Baffert is the exception (Santa Anita at 460 ft), although I have not done any intensive studies in over a decade.

Regarding the #4 - he was 4-1 morning line and 3-1 at post time. While he was my 2nd pick, he was a massive underlay, and I had yet another reason to pass the race..........

[sekrah]

I respectively disagree.  The 4 should have been no worse than even money.    I also disagree on your altitude thoughts.   I thought I had my teeth sunk into something on it until I studied it.   It\'s overblown.  3500 feet is not Azteca Stadium.  Opinions are like assholes though...

[MO]

I wouldn\'t take even money on Alysheba.

[ajkreider]

In addition to these reasons, I think I read somewhere that Ender\'s connections are from New Mexico.

As far as the west coasters, Creative Cause looks the real deal to me.  He\'s in my Derby exotics at this stage.