Derby Trail

[FrankD.]

OK guy\'s,

5 weeks from yesterday and where do we go from here?

I watched the Calvin down the road show with one of the partners of the injured Algorithms at the new Albany sports bar and bingo hall; I mean the 711 clubhouse which pretends to be about horse racing.All he could do was shake his head and wonder as UR wandered around the track under far from Leparoux\'s best ride ever. He may have the best horse of his generation on the side lines; so goes the Derby trail?

Great ROW analysis and this sharp guy bombed the lock exacta of TCI and UR. If your a Rags supporter (Union, not brand X) you really have to be puzzled? I can see him not cranked up for yesterday and did not think he would win given the pace scenario but his effort was pathetic and not being able to get by Reveron in the lane was inexcusable. A pair of his 2 or a 3 would have been a stepping stone but such a regression in a basic follow the leaders race is very puzzling. It will be very interesting to see what TGJB does with the day as it was not a speed favoring surface by Gulfstream standards for sure.

I will be wagering on El Padrino where ever he shows up next as he figured to X after a classic 0-2; obviously not Derby bound via earnings so maybe Lexington to get him back on track for the Preakness.

Let the debate begin and we\'ll see what Cali has to add to the equation next week?

Good luck,

Frank D.

[TreadHead]

Gonna disagree with several of your points Frank.

I don\'t see any unusual deviation from the normal Gulfstream Park speed bias in the charts.  Yara was due for a huge bounce and was not going to last on the lead no matter how the track was playing and Grace Hall was pretty close most of the way.  Other winners EZ Effort, Fort Larned,  I see an awful lot of 1s and 2s by their names in the chart.

The fact that UR and EP were not able to catch TCI and Reveron is VERY excusable when you consider they went 6F in 112.1. Reveron is not chopped liver, he has several competitive figures just a couple points worse than URs very best, and given the pace scenario and (according to Trackus) that they had similar ground loss, it\'s quite explainable that they finished right together.

Lastly, and most importantly, El Padrinos race very well may have not been an X.  According to Trackus (and easy to visually confirm) he raced 68ft(!!) further than TCI during the race, yet lost by only 25ft.  He raced 27ft further than UR, yet only finished 12 behind him.  EP also had the highest recorded speed during the race of anyone else.  If you watch how he dispatches the other horses he is racing wide with off the turn (given they were some of the weaker horses in the field), it is easy to see that this was an extremely well hidden large effort.  I\'m not trying to say he got back to his 0, but pairing up his 2 certainly seems possible given where the others finished.

[miff]

Frank D,

How\'s it going up north.

TCI kinda paired his Beyer 95 roughly equaling a TG 2.75(backwards move on TG where TCI was faster going in than Rags and Beyer).Interesting in that Reveron might get the same or better fig than TCI having been wider than winner off both turns. Reveron had a best of like TG 4 going in,a projection mess this one.The first 6f of the FD was substantially slower than any other dirt route.

As far as Union Rags, who needed a hard fought type race, he was under ridden, under trained(not am sharp and has been hammer locked in all his Palm Meadows works)UR goes into the Derby with a backwards move but the pace was slow for yesterdays track speed.GP surface was fast, a track record broken and no closers made up any real ground late all day.Certain the track will profile on the up close/speed favoring side.UR, without electric quickness, could not really threaten in that last 3/8\'s run in 36.3.Finished ok, galloped out well, ate dirt and Frenchie learned to ride the best horse when you have it.Did not love UR\'s action while eating dirt down towards the inside, may be a toss if he draws very inside for Derby.

Ball now in the court of Hansen, Gemologist, Creative Cause.Bodemeister/Alpha to a lessser extent. Great that UR did not run off and win with a big fig, makes the whole picture muddier now and better for betting.

Good Luck!


Mike

[miff]

Thread,

Trakus, math or this more relevant?

\"El Padrino, the Risen Star winner, was outside of Union Rags, with jockey Javier Castellano – who used to ride Union Rags – keeping the favorite bottled up. But when Castellano asked El Padrino to take advantage of that position, he had nothing.

“He was flat. I don’t know why,” Castellano said.

“He just didn’t finish,” said Todd Pletcher, who trains El Padrino. “We’ll see how he comes out of it and decide where to go from there.”

[TreadHead]

Tough to see how someone can \"take advantage\" of being 4 wide on one turn and 5 wide on another.  I like those comments from the jock even more.  If he only finished 12 feet behind UR depite spotting him 27 in ground and didn\'t have his normal kick, that means there is plenty of room for improvement and if the same situation arises he might actually get by him.

[big18741]

El Padrino could be one of those long odds underneath types in the Derby if he has a good five weeks going in.He has enough earnings to make the gate.

Pletcher had those flat looking types Invisible Ink and Bluegrass Cat run back to tops at CD.

[miff]

TAP\'s main derby hope resting with Gemologist. El Padrino will have to bouncing around pretty good next few days to go the Derby.

[TreadHead]

The horse who ran the lowest tg figure in the fl derby needs to be \"bouncing around in the next few days\" to be considered for ky?  Laughable.

Invisible ink is exactly the horse and pattern I was thinking about too, although no way we see 50 to 1

[alm]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Frank D,
>
> How\'s it going up north.
>
> TCI kinda paired his Beyer 95 roughly equaling a
> TG 2.75(backwards move on TG where TCI was faster
> going in than Rags and Beyer).Interesting in that
> Reveron might get the same or better fig than TCI
> having been wider than winner off both turns.
> Reveron had a best of like TG 4 going in,a
> projection mess this one.The first 6f of the FD
> was substantially slower than any other dirt
> route.
>
> As far as Union Rags, who needed a hard fought
> type race, he was under ridden, under trained(not
> am sharp and has been hammer locked in all his
> Palm Meadows works)UR goes into the Derby with a
> backwards move but the pace was slow for
> yesterdays track speed.GP surface was fast, a
> track record broken and no closers made up any
> real ground late all day.Certain the track will
> profile on the up close/speed favoring side.UR,
> without electric quickness, could not really
> threaten in that last 3/8\'s run in 36.3.Finished
> ok, galloped out well, ate dirt and Frenchie
> learned to ride the best horse when you have
> it.Did not love UR\'s action while eating dirt down
> towards the inside, may be a toss if he draws very
> inside for Derby.
>
> Ball now in the court of Hansen, Gemologist,
> Creative Cause.Bodemeister/Alpha to a lessser
> extent. Great that UR did not run off and win with
> a big fig, makes the whole picture muddier now and
> better for betting.
>
> Good Luck!
>
>
> Mike


Mike

I think your take on the FD is spot on.  UR goes nowhere but forward from here...it was one of the best \'race riding\' efforts by Castellano that I\'ve seen in a long time (where\'s Angel when you need him? - now maybe we\'ve got Javier to fill his shoes.)

You know I want Gemologist to step up and take the KD, but honestly I think I saw the Derby winner finish third yesterday.  Seriously, it wasn\'t the numbers or the ground loss or the ride itself...it was what appeared to me to be a very determined animal using the absolute minimum of opportunities to finish with willingness...UR was willing and was coming, but the fractions had been so slow and he was so buried that the others did not stop for him.

One thing I am willing to bet on even up is that TCI won\'t win in Kentucky.  The picture will continue to get confused if Gem can take the Wood.  UR may get somewhere between 5 and 10 to 1 in Churchill straight up.  I will be \'there\' for that.

Al

[miff]

\"The horse who ran the lowest tg figure in the fl derby needs to be \"bouncing around in the next few days\" to be considered for ky? Laughable\"

Thread,

The lowest figure is irrelevant, it matters how the horse comes out of the race.Incidentally, if you believe that El Padrino ran well yesterday, welcome to the pools.


Mike

[TGJB]

Two quick overall coments:

1-- Looking down the earnings list, there are an awful lot of horses that will qualify who will be immediate tosses in Ky-- like the 1,2,or 3 that come out of the Dubai race (which should not be graded for that very reason, unless they go to a point system rather than earnings, which they should).

2-- I\'m a long way from doing a figure, but I agree with Tread that El Padrino is almost certain to get a buried mark and is much liver than the public (and some on this board) think. I\'m not sure he has enough earnings for the Derby and I hope he doesn\'t run there-- he would be a great use as the forgotten horse if they train him up to the Preakness.

By the way, I\'ve had the allowance EP and TCI come out of listed for review since I did the day, had to wait until a few ran back. Could be a point or so worse, I\'ll look at it later this week.

[FrankD.]

Hey Mike,

Things are going well up here, thank you.

My point about \"speed favoring by Gulfstream Standards\" you hit with the non electric quickness comment. The previous 3 days no one had a chance, they were Indian file harness races. I agree with your Reveron projection, no way your calling a 2.5 for him.

The typical Derby mess 5 weeks out from the 20 horse lottery!

Take care and hope all is well with you and yours,

Frank D.

[ajkreider]

JB,

It rained a little bit in the middle of the program.  In your opinion, was it enough to change the way you will look at the later races?

[TGJB]

Won\'t know until I do the day.

[phil23]

Any news on the EP/TCI alw possible fig change?  Still the same or was it lowered?