Hansen

[alm]

Help me here, gentlemen.  They\'ve announced Hansen will run in the Blue Grass and I can\'t understand why there is any advantage to this move.  What are they thinking?

[big18741]

Why not Alm?

He\'s already run well on polytrack.
They don\'t have to ship.
Poly to dirt worked well last year in the Juvenile.
Same purse as the Wood.

[Lost Cause]

big18741 Wrote:
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> Why not Alm?
>
> He\'s already run well on polytrack.
> They don\'t have to ship.
> Poly to dirt worked well last year in the
> Juvenile.
> Same purse as the Wood.


They might be looking for that Poly to dirt explosion..Poly to dirt has worked well recently with Street Sense and Animal Kingdom.

[big18741]

I think at least a few trainers are looking at that angle running in the Blue Grass.

Mark Casse with Prospective,Maker with Hansen and Romans with Dullahan.

Hansen already jumped up big(at least on tg #\'s) in the Gotham-not sure if he has another forward move coming out of the Keeneland race.Prospective could move forward off a polytrack race and certainly Dullahan can.

[MO]

Hansen will win the Derby.

[alm]

I appreciate the subsequent posts about poly to dirt moves, but this gives him 7 days less rest before the Derby than running in the Wood, plus what appears to be shaping up as a tougher race.  Maybe.  Those seem to me to be disadvantages, but it wouldn\'t be the first time I was wrong.  Regardless, pending the pps I will likely take a position against him at Keeneland and a bigger position against him if he makes it to Churchill.

[sighthound]

I don\'t think Hansen will carry his speed over distance this spring.   Thus into the lucrative Bluegrass GI, skip the Derby, take the Preakness GI, skip the Belmont, and get another GI in the fall, then into the shed.  An extremely talented and speedy horse, exceptional, but I think 10 furlongs is beyond his pedigree.

[TGJB]

If that horse is breathing he\'ll run in the Derby.

[Dave]

Call me crazy, but I think they don\'t want Hansen too keen like he was in the Holy Bull.  He\'s already run off once on two week\'s rest, so maybe this is one of those who just does better with more racing.  It was the norm 10 years ago.

[aceriley63]

Alpha will win the Derby

[Rick B.]

aceriley63 Wrote:
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> Alpha will win the Derby

Wow -- you are more certain of it than the horse\'s connections!

From DRF:

“[Alpha\'s] next race will tell us where he fits in the pecking order for possible Kentucky Derby,” Simon Crisford, Godolphin’s racing manager, said last week in Dubai.

(Entire story at: http://www.drf.com/news/wood-memorial-alpha-follows-new-path-kentucky-derby-godolphin)

Seriously -- what is the value of such a prediction before the horse has run his final prep? Just so that you can say you were the first to call it, if he should win? That, and a quarter...

[alm]

Dave Wrote:
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> Call me crazy, but I think they don\'t want Hansen
> too keen like he was in the Holy Bull.  He\'s
> already run off once on two week\'s rest, so maybe
> this is one of those who just does better with
> more racing.  It was the norm 10 years ago.


I don\'t think you\'re crazy Dave.  And I think the fellows who speculate on the poly to dirt angle may be on to something.  However, and this is a personal thing, I don\'t want my horses running on poly under any circumstances...there\'s very little proof it is safer and there is a lot of anecdotal experience I hear to the effect it leaves some horses pretty sore.  

Your point is good if history is any kind of guide.  The Blue Grass set up a bunch of Derby winners over the decades.  Maybe this one will, too.  If he was my horse, however, he would run in the Wood over a track he\'s already won on, impressively and maybe have a somewhate easier race.

[big18741]

Hard to say on Alpha until he runs the Wood.He needs to get faster.

With all of the rest he should at least pair or improve.His sheet looks okay so far and his pedigree is fine for ten furlongs.

Alpha didn\'t handle the gate at all last fall in the Juvenile and ran bad over the Churchill surface.He also has no speed so he\'s been susceptible to wide trips even in small fields this year.3 or 4 wide on both turns.He hasn\'t shown a big one run closing kick either.Too me he\'s just a grinder with no acceleration.Leaning against for now.

[ajkreider]

No one should make a prediction prior to the post position draw, let alone the final prep.  This year, every horse looks like a toss from the 20 hole (no Big Browns).

[sighthound]

I laughed.  True, that.