Tough Wood

[Lost Cause]

This is one of the tougher Wood Memorials in recent memory.  Lots of angles.  Read that the Zito horse got surgery for a flipped palate so he could get better too.

[alm]

Are you saying that you think this is a tough race to bet or a tough race to win?

[Lost Cause]

alm Wrote:
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> Are you saying that you think this is a tough race
> to bet or a tough race to win?


Both...
-Alpha gets the rail and should stalk and run well but is probably not fully cranked as he has enough earnings and he has a jock who might not be at his best just coming back from a bad spill injury.
-Lumber guy has nice racesso far is stretching out first time and will likely face pace pressure from Teeth of the dog but could potentially be the outside stalking speed if he can rate
- Gemologist could tuck behind The Lumber Guy and Teeth of the dog or go outside of them and stalk or he might get stalked by the Lumber Guy.  He Will be fully cranked since he needs earnings so i\'m leaning this way but he might be forced to keep The Lumber guy honest which would soften him up for the closers-
-Street Life has been a scary closer.  No pace in last and still ran over the front runner in the stretch..If this one gets pace look out..
-My Adonis is hard knocking and keeps coming at the end of races so if he gets pace there is a chance
-Casual trick had the palate surgery and certainly looked like a horse that lost his air in the last two races..His first two route races were pretty good and he should be in a good spot turning for home.

Can\'t find a good reason to play Teeth of the dog or Tiger\'s walk so won\'t comment..

Still have to see the sheets so all this may be for nothing but it certainly looks like a tough race with lots of angles.

[alm]

Their general riding styles with horses with pace suggest that JV will be up on the neck of the frontrunner in the early part of the race and JC will have Gemologist as close as he can hold him behind the pace.  If Gemologist is a 9 furlong (or longer) horse, he probably can be expected to take this one.  If he turns out to be more like that Discreet Cat horse of TAP\'s, we should look for a closer here.

[Lost Cause]

JV is on Tiger Walk so he won\'t be applying the pace pressure.  

My guess is Teeth of the dog goes out with The Lumber Guy stalking with Gemologist stalking them..But stranger things have happened..

[HP]

An interesting wild card here is the fact the Dominguez is just coming back from a pretty serious injury.  He has only two mounts Saturday including Alpha.  I would think if he was 100% he\'d be all over the card.  Certainly something I\'m going to think about before taking a short price on that one, though I have not seen the TGs yet.  

HP

[HP]

Also for out of towners it has been bone dry here and will continue to be that way through the weekend, so don\'t worry about slop, etc.  

HP

[alm]

So here\'s what I see.

Alpha and My Adonis probably have the best numbers in the race and there doesn\'t seem to be any reason to assume they are not contenders here.

Gemologist has a forward looking pattern with small steps ahead.  One more move forward puts him in the mix with the two above.

Although Street Life also has a gradually improving pattern, he may be slower than these three.  Not out of it, but he needs a bigger jump to contend than they do.

Casual Trick is counting on a myectomy to compete?  Good luck against these.

Teeth of the Dog is not fast enough and doesn\'t show anything to convince me he will jump up to beat this group.

Tiger Walk has been handled well, but is slower and needs the big ones to stop for him to get by.

I really respect Hushion, but The LumberGuy hasn\'t gone 2 turns...he\'s not going to get a slow paced trip, which I think he needs to stretch his above average, but not spectacular speed.

Personally I don\'t think is a particularly tough group.  I\'ll stick with Pletcher in this case...with a horse that appears ready for a breakthrough race.

[richiebee]

alm Wrote:
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> So here\'s what I see.

> Personally I don\'t think is a particularly tough
> group.  I\'ll stick with Pletcher in this
> case...with a horse that appears ready for a
> breakthrough race.

Alm:

You better hope so, or your rather excellent Derby future selection is outside
looking in in terms of earnings.

I look forward to watching Caleb\'s Posse, who to me was clearly last years top 3YO
on the basis of his 4 graded stakes wins, including Grade 1 scores in the BC Dirt
Mile and the Kings Bishop (while many say that Caleb passed a leg weary Uncle Mo
in the Kings Bishop, his burst of speed in the last 1/8th mile was rather
breathtaking).

Trainer von Hemel has stated that the Met Mile is his objective with Caleb, and
it is an important race in Caleb\'s 2012 campaign with the BC Mile being run at 2
turns at SA this year. While Caleb was not really ineffective at two turning last
year (winning the Ohio Derby (Gr 3) at 1-1/16th, running second in the Rebel
behind The Factor and in front of eventual Ark Derby winner Archarcharch, and
winning the one mile Smarty Jones at OP), it is clear he is a special colt in one
turn races.

As HP stated, a glorious weather weekend on tap in NY, with four graded stakes on
the Wood card (and since the Clueless Clowns will never change, there is an all
maiden pick 4 early in the card), the opening of Keeneland (cmon, haters, its
very good racing -- synthetic or not) plus the Masters, with Tiger against the
World. (I\'ll be pulling pretty strongly for the World here.)

While I\'m rambling along, let me also mention that this weekend begins the
pursuit of Lord Stanley\'s Cup. To me the NHL is very unique in that there is a
marked difference between the regular season and the playoffs: Most notably, the
controversial \"shootout\" tie breaking mechanism is not utilized, but also the
intensity level, the way teams approach the game (much less chippiness) and the
way the games are refereed makes for compelling sport; that being said, the
moment the team I follow -- the NJ Debtvils -- is eliminated, I won\'t watch
another game.

[FrankD.]

LET\'S GO RANGERS !!!!

[alm]

Agree on Caleb\'s Posse.  As for the way I view the Wood, I\'m trying to take it outside the context of what I want to have happen.  I think the guys at Winstar have managed their horse for a 2-race series, the Wood and the Derby.  If I am right he is pretty fully cranked for this race and we will see a new stronger number, which they will hope can be paired a month later.  Also remember that I am hoping to get Union Rags at 5-1 or better in the Derby and, if he wins at that level, I will win far more than I bet on Gemologist in the Future.  If UR is lower, I have to bet vertically in the Derby, which is my real weak suit.

[Rick B.]

richiebee Wrote:
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> ...the opening of Keeneland (cmon, haters, its
> very good racing -- synthetic or not) plus the
> Masters, with Tiger against the World. (I\'ll be
> pulling pretty strongly for the World here.)

Richie...you can root for synthetic, but you can\'t root for Tiger? Ew.

Tiger has done far less damage to golf than syn has done to racing, IMO...and the whole thing with \"rich handsome guy can\'t control his Johnson\" (if this is what irks you about Tiger) as a devastating societal crime is overblown.  

As Chris Rock once said, \"Men are about as faithful as their options\". It\'s true. As a gender, we are poon hounds. It\'s in our DNA.

[Rich Curtis]

Not guilty by reason of DNA? Cool. And there\'s no reason to limit this to sex. DNA contains multitudes. Let the games begin anew, in all areas of life, each of us playing according to the rules set down by our DNA.

[P-Dub]

Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> richiebee Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > ...the opening of Keeneland (cmon, haters, its
> > very good racing -- synthetic or not) plus the
> > Masters, with Tiger against the World. (I\'ll be
> > pulling pretty strongly for the World here.)
>
> Richie...you can root for synthetic, but you can\'t
> root for Tiger? Ew.
>
> Tiger has done far less damage to golf than syn
> has done to racing, IMO...and the whole thing with
> \"rich handsome guy can\'t control his Johnson\" (if
> this is what irks you about Tiger) as a
> devastating societal crime is overblown.  
>
> As Chris Rock once said, \"Men are about as
> faithful as their options\". It\'s true. As a
> gender, we are poon hounds. It\'s in our DNA.

Yeah, I\'m pretty sure Tiger is the only golfer to ever screw around.  Those Euro guys are such upstanding fellows.

[richiebee]

Rick B. Wrote:
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> Richie...you can root for synthetic, but you can\'t
> root for Tiger? Ew.

A lot of the races I bet on at Kee are turf. And how can you not support a place
that still gets large live crowds and still draws young people?

Speaking of great race places, I am going to St. Louis for my 35th college
reunion in a couple of weeks. I will be at Fairmount Park on Friday night, April
20. If you want to make the trip down I-55, dinner and drinks are on me.
 
> Tiger has done far less damage to golf than syn
> has done to racing, IMO...and the whole thing with
> \"rich handsome guy can\'t control his Johnson\" (if
> this is what irks you about Tiger) as a
> devastating societal crime is overblown.  
>
> As Chris Rock once said, \"Men are about as
> faithful as their options\". It\'s true. As a
> gender, we are poon hounds. It\'s in our DNA.

I have no problem with men being men. My problem with Tiger Woods goes back to
days far before he banged his first waitress or porn star.

Tiger acts like a spoiled brat on the golf course. I mean if he was a tatooed
thug in the NBA, this might be acceptable, but the golf course is still and
hopefully always will be an arena where self respect, respect for your competitors
and respect for course etiquette are part of the game. Unless you think you are
above it all, as Tiger sometimes does.

I think Chris Rock\'s stand up is as good as any we have today, but without
Richard Pryor 40 years ago, there probably wouldn\'t be a Chris Rock, both in terms
of race and material. Chris Rock acknowledges this. Did you ever hear Tiger Woods
talk about Lee Elder or Charlie Sifford?

I work with an African American woman who once was looking in the newspaper at
the pictures of Tiger\'s blonde Scandanavian wife and his harem of white trash
bimbos, at which point she said, \"Tiger, Tiger whats a sistah gotta do?\"