6-1 on Dullahan in Blue Grass

[ajkreider]

I have a hard time believing the line stays there, but that looks like stealing.

[phil23]

No offence certainly but since differing opinions is what make a horse race:

How is this stealing.  He\'s not fast, has never been fast, and comeback was not fast.  Hansen miles faster, and at least 5 or 6 others in race very close, if not faster.  I\'d want at least 10:1, if not more.

Think he\'s one of the most over rated on the derby trail.

[Lost Cause]

ajkreider Wrote:
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> I have a hard time believing the line stays there,
> but that looks like stealing.


Seems like he is going to get a good pace setup with lots of speed signed on.  Would hope for more than 6/1 but i\'ve learned to look at this race as a turf race not a dirt one and he is one of the best turfers in there.

[ajkreider]

Okay, maybe \"stealing\" is stretching it.  Hansen is of course a deserving favorite, but 6-5 can\'t be played (by me, at least).

Dullahan has a G1 win over this strip, in what was clearly his best race.  Normally I think the \"race over the track\" angle is overrated, but not with the uncertainty around  the artificial stuff.  He has been in nothing but stakes for his last four - the worst finish of which was a very credible 4th in the Juvy. As Lost Cause mentioned, the post is just right and should get pace to run at.  Wants more distance.  6-1 is too good for what looks to be the clear 2nd choice.

And, I don\'t like anyone else.

10-13 look like tosses by post position alone, and he ran a better race than Howe Great last time out anyway.  Holy Candy is interesting, but he\'s had trouble winning as the favorite against small fields.  Prospective is a nice horse, won twice on poly, but was not in the league of Hansen or Dullanhan last time.  Heavy Breathing\'s only shot is loose on the lead, and he won\'t get that here.

[phil23]

Yeah, good pts.  I\'m probably more focused on his Derby chances truthfully.  So Saturday perhaps I shouldn\'t dismiss him so quickly, given the surface.  I just have a hard time getting past how slow all his 2yo numbers were.  And even though he got 4th in the Juvi, he did not exactly explode on dirt.  If the morning line stands up (can\'t imagine it will), I think Holy Candy is the bet of the day.

[big18741]

Dullahan has an interesting pedigree.

Even the Score progeny improved on average 5.5 points from two to three.

His two half brothers both improved 8 points from two to three.One of them won the Derby.

I\'ll agree he\'s over rated at this point and slow on paper but lets see how he looks after the Bluegrass has been run.Last year he was slow sprinting on dirt,
slow stretching out when switched to grass- moved way up on the Keeneland poly then paired on dirt at Churchill.

Off a long layoff and missing time due to illness this winter in Florida he runs a new top on grass going nine furlongs.He showed a nice turn of foot on that surface as well-something that was lacking in his two turf races last year.Dullahan put in a wide run on the turn in the Palm Beach and got his last 3/8ths in 35.53

If he jumps up on poly again I\'d have to take a good look at him in the Derby.

[fasteddie]

Ever So Lucky is my play here, mostly on \"feel\"... not meant for the Swale, will love going longer, and it is rare for a Sheppard-trained horse to work 5/8ths this fast.

If I lose, I am rooting for Hansen to run a HUGE number, so he and \'Gem take big $$$ on DD, setting up my futures horse (Take Charge Indy)! One can hope...

[TGJB]

I\'m not going to do it as ROTW (or discuss it here, I\'ll save it for the analysis), but there us a VERY live longshot in the BG-- especially if you have been paying attention to what (and who) is going on down there. Maybe more than one.

Talk amongst yourselves...

[fasteddie]

Hmmm...I like the Sadler horse in the Maker\'s Mile.....when he ships east, watch out, especially in the spring; I have done well with him in the past. The Candy horse is interesting, though....

[MO]

I think this is Hansen\'s race to lose and Prospective and Heavy Breathing are the live longshots.

[alm]

fasteddie Wrote:
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> Ever So Lucky is my play here, mostly on \"feel\"...
> not meant for the Swale, will love going longer,
> and it is rare for a Sheppard-trained horse to
> work 5/8ths this fast.
>
> If I lose, I am rooting for Hansen to run a HUGE
> number, so he and \'Gem take big $$$ on DD, setting
> up my futures horse (Take Charge Indy)! One can
> hope...


If you bet TCI in the futures at good odds, you may want to dutch the DD with some other choices and not go all in on one runner.  Just a thought.

[alm]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'m not going to do it as ROTW (or discuss it
> here, I\'ll save it for the analysis), but there us
> a VERY live longshot in the BG-- especially if you
> have been paying attention to what (and who) is
> going on down there. Maybe more than one.
>
> Talk amongst yourselves...


OK, I am not sure who and what is going on down there, but a few horses jump out as live longshots.

First, Heavy Breathing who at least seems to have the numbers to make an impact on the race.  Next, Gung Ho which has an improving pattern and a decent number on poly.  Baffert\'s Midnight Crooner got a good poly number in a maiden race, but is right there.  And I hate to say it, but Hero of Order might have the best of all numbers if not on the wrong surface.  Still he showed he can run on this junk and on grass.  Interestingly, Hansen has decent numbers on poly, but not as fast as those above.  His best has actually been on dirt.

I guess I would lean towards Gung Ho if I was looking for a longshot moving in the right direction.

[Dark Bay]

Loved Prospective\'s Tampa Bay Derby.   Blinkers have made him a different horse.  Lots of early types in the BG, great post and a pedigree that is begging for more ground.   Hero of Order\'s last was no fluke but he may get a wide trip.  I\'ll still use him underneath Prospective along with Hansen and Dullahan

[alm]

Dark Bay Wrote:
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> Loved Prospective\'s Tampa Bay Derby.   Blinkers
> have made him a different horse.  Lots of early
> types in the BG, great post and a pedigree that is
> begging for more ground.   Hero of Order\'s last
> was no fluke but he may get a wide trip.  I\'ll
> still use him underneath Prospective along with
> Hansen and Dullahan


It looks as if we are the only ones who\'ve responded to Jerry\'s question.  Very strange.

I don\'t want to put down your pick, but Prospective\'s next to last race was arguably faster than his most recent race with the blinkers.  So it\'s hard for me to feel he\'s a different horse.  If I am correct and we look back to his poly races, he\'s too slow to beat this bunch.  If you are correct, you have a nice longshot.

[PatrickM]

Thinking it has something to do with the Ramseys and Ward\'s horse or Maker\'s horse. Haven\'t seen sheets on either but seems one of those to me.