A word of caution on pre-derby workouts

[covelj70]

Hey all,

Haven\'t been posting that much lately as have been travelling a ton for work but three of my favorite weeks of the year are upon us with the lead up to the Derby so I figured I would throw my hat back into the ring.

Even though I haven\'t been posting, I have been reading and one things that has struck me is how many people have commented that they want to follow all of the pre-derby workouts before they decide which way to go.

***warning, this is a long post so you can skip to the 3rd full paragraph from the bottom for the punch line if you are short on time******

Now, on some level following the workouts makes sense and I don\'t think any of us should settle on our pick until the post draw (I was all over Archx3 until the post draw last year for example but had to change post the draw, not to the right horse by the way).

Anyway, I digress.  My point here is that I think it\'s dangerous to put too much emphasis on pre-derby workouts.

First of all, if a horse that isn\'t fast enough to begin with is working \"lights out,\" all that means is that they are going to run their race which isn\'t fast enough to win anyway so how does that help us?  I have seen far too many horses that were too slow to win the Derby get steam leading up to the race because of a workout to make that mistake again.  Very few horses run a new top in the Derby (I did that study last year before the Derby and posted it on the site) so we should mostly focus on the horses that have already run fast enough to win. AK was a costly exception last year but that was a new surface issue as oppossed to an issue of him running a new top on the same surface.  I will always play against a young 3 year old trying something new for the first time in a 20 horse field going a new distance whether it\'s new equipment (blinkers), a new running style (being taken off the pace) or a new surface (turf to dirt, etc).  Over the long run, playing against those first time changes will pay off.

Second and most importantly, IF YOU LIKE A PARTICULAR HORSE, DONT\'T LET ONE OF THE COMMENTATORS TALK YOU OFF OF THE HORSE BECUASE THEY DIDNT LIKE A GALLOP OUT OR A WARM UP, ETC IN THE WORKOUTS LEADING UP TO THE DERBY

We need to go back no further than the Florida Derby 2 WEEKS AGO to see how true this is.  Mike Welsh is great, in no way shape or form am I criticizing him or his work, I think he\'s the best at what he does.  However, go back and look at the clocker reports from Welsh on DRF.com before the Florida Derby.  He described Take Charge Indy as being urged at the wire with a poor gallop out and he described Union Rags work as the second coming of Secretariat\'s Belmont.  How helpful was that to anyone who played the race?

So, if these guys know what they are doing, why do I think that tossing a horse based on workout reports before the Derby is a bad idea?  the short answer is that there is alot of vet work (much of it legal) that gets done immediately after the final workouts that can have a huge impact on a horses ability to run one big race.  Sight and maybe some others on the board can offer some of the technical perspective on what kinds of things get done but much of the vet work that gets done, the more times you do it, the less impact it has which is why trainers/vets wait till right before the horses biggest race of their lives to do it.

Ice Box and Nehro are too very good and recent examples of this.  I was on the backstretch all week leading up to the Ice Box derby.  When he came off the track from his gallop the day before the race, I literally thought the horse wasn\'t going to make it back to the stall.  He looked AWFUL.  Noticeable discomfort, low energy, etc.  Then, he runs the race of his life 2 days later.  Note that he never won again (or for that matter ran well again).  How did this happen?  The vets squeezed the lemon right before the race.  Again, please let me be clear on this.  I am assuming everything they did was good, clean, legal vet work.  I am not one of those conspiracy theory people that assume everything is illegal and nefarious.  There are things that can be done legally that make a big difference, it\'s just that the more times you do them, the less impact it has.

Same goes for Nehro before last year\'s Derby.  Didn\'t look good in the two weeks leading up to the race.  Gets some good honest vet work done before the race, runs the race of his life and hasn\'t won since.

Those who paid too much attention to the negative reports on Take Charge Indy before this year\'s Florida Derby or Ice Box or Nehro before the last two Kentucky Derby\'s missed those races.

Hope this helps some people in their preparation over the next few weeks.  I am really looking forward to the dialogue.  

Jim

[ajkreider]

Thanks for this.

I assume, though, that you\'re not suggesting that the TCI lemon has been squeezed, and that this may affect things going forward.  (Or maybe you are.  They needed the earnings . . . .)

[covelj70]

No firm view on if the lemon has been squeezed there or not but based on the figures that Jerry was good enough to share with us on the board, TCI falls into the category of not fast enough.  

Not completely out of it figures wise but a bit too slow, albeit with a good pattern.

We would have to be playing him for one of the 1 or 2 that move forward in every derby order to get into the mix, and/or assume that Calvin will save ground all the way around again so he doesn\'t need to be fast enough going in.

On another note, I ordered the sheets for one of the ones that I thought had a big chance and I was sad to see his pattern is bad and for that matter, the pattern of a bunch of these is really bad.

There are more O-2 patterns heading into this Derby than any I can remember and unless Hansen runs his eyeballs out tomorrow, he will also fall into that category.  Then we can start the debate about whether he\'s really looking at an 0-2-x in the derby or if the \"2\" was more a function of the poly or him not being fully cranked than it was a reaction to the huge fig in the Gotham

I think I need to go back to the archives and do a study on how many horses regressed off a big number in their final derby prep and then came back to run their number in the Derby.  That study would seem more relevant this year than any I can remember.

[Wrongly]

I think we try to make cases for undeserving horses in the Derby since the likes of Animal Kingdom, Mine that Bird, and Giacomo have won.  Still I see this year as rather simple, if the horse didn\'t run at least a 3 in the last prep they are a toss from the win slot.  If the horse was able to run a 2 or better in one of his last two preps he needs to be used at least for 2nd.  I may move up a longshot based on works but it\'s going to be for a minor share.

[TGJB]

Good work on all counts, Jim.

[Dave]

Agree that you shouldn\'t put too much emphasis, but it is an interesting exercise, and one that has certainly gained more popularity over the past decade since everyone can now go watch everything on the internet.  15 years ago all you had was word of mouth unless you spent 3 weeks in Louisville, so there is clearly an entirely new audience looking at these things.

Now you obviously can\'t make a slow horse fast enough (except for Giacomo), but with developing 3yo\'s who are prepped differently than 20 years ago, it has become a valuable tool for making judgements positively and negatively when looking to fill out the verticals.  The buzz horses from the rail last year were Shackleford and Animal Kingdom.  I also think of the way Street Sense, Barbaro, and Rachel were unbelievable in their final works, signaling that they were ready to validate themselves.  And remember Bluegrass Cat showing mixed signals on paper, but blossoming right up to Derby Day and making the trifecta go boom.  

On the Negative side, Ice Box and Nehro may have thrown everyone off, but others like Friesan Fire, Dunkirk, and Brother Derek were taking money and not looking the part.

[JR]

Monarchos

[Topcat]

High-grade on-point enlightenment . . .

[miff]

Probably can find good or bad workers who won/lost,ran well/poorly.Have never seen a trainer jump for joy when his horse is working poorly coming up to a big race.Have seen them back off or even withdraw off a bad work esp if they to not like the way the horses is moving. Tricky, for example, notorious on this aspect.Most trainers will say the works were just what they wanted anyway even if that is not true.

Putting it simply, would you prefer that the horse you select works well training up to the derby or works poorly? Works not the be all end all but it is something to consider in trying to assess if the horse seems to be sitting on a big one.

Agree that works alone should not dictate too much as some horses are always good workers, some just so so but perform well in the race.


Mike

[HP]

Thunder Gulch

[Rick B.]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Putting it simply, would you prefer that the horse
> you select works well training up to the derby or
> works poorly?

I\'ve been burned too many times by this; there are too many things I just don\'t know about a given horse.
 
I\'ve simplified this to: \"Is the horse working or not?\" Neutral to positive if working, negative if not working recently...but not necessarily a deciding factor either way.

(For everyday handicapping, I care very little about missing works here in Illinois -- there are literally dozens of farms around with training tracks from which works are never reported. You must know which trainers show up with gorillas ready to run big...pretty much like anywhere else, I suppose.)  

For the most part, overthinking workout information just gives us another chance to make a mistake, IMO.

[miff]

Rick B,

Biggest problem for most handicappers on big race day is information overload, lots of meaningless minutia which can sometimes seem relevant AFTER the race.

Re works,important to me is how a horse is moving over the surface not necessarily how fast. Agree no works a very poor sign for many reasons.


Good luck.

Mike

[mjellish]

I was just going back through board getting caught up on some of the chatter, and I thought this well said post regarding works leading up to Louisville deserved more comment.  

IMO, the works are only part of the story, and some horses rarely work well in the morning no matter what but still run their eyeballs out in the afternoon.  To properly evaluate a work, I think you also have to look at the trainer and how they typically work their horses.  If you see a Larry Jones colt put in a 5F work in 58 six days before the KY Derby, is that a better work than an Assmussen colt going 5F in 101?

Evaluating works is a very tricky thing.  To me, you have to put that work in the context of the trainer and the colt.  How does that trainer typically work his horses in the AM, how does that colt typically work, and how does this latest work fit within that overall context?  If you see an Assmussen colt blow out in 59 and change with a strong gallop out, that probably means something.  With Larry Jones, it may not mean anything at all.

It used to be that if you had some first hand knowledge about how these colts were doing in the AM it could give you a pretty good leg up on the crowd.  But now, in the information age, we get daily reports posted online at DRF for all derby and oaks workers.  And Welsh is actually pretty good.
 
So what makes a good work?  

IMO I think the thing to pay attention to more than anything else is not how fast or slow they go, but \"how\" they go fast or slow and how that compares with what that horse or that trainer\'s horses usually do in the AM.  An fast work from a normally fast working horse or barn may not mean anything at all.  

But a couple of things about the works leading up to the derby that I think you can usually hang your hat on to help separate the field are:
 
#1 The Derby winner usually does not have any hiccups in the AM leading up to the race.  If there is anything negative coming out of the barn, a small foot bruise, a slight infection, the horse misses a gallop or two or doesn\'t quite seem to be himself, it is usually cause for concern.

#2 If the colt works in company he should not be outworked by his workmate.  

#3 The gallop out after a work can be more telling than the actual work itself.  A fast 5F work in 59 may not mean anything by itself, especially if the horse shuts down right after wire and is blowing like a train (see Holy Bull).  To me that\'s actually a negative work.  But if I see a colt go 5F in 100 and double gallop out in 112.2, 125.2 without being asked to do it - to me that\'s a telling sign that this horse is probably full of energy and ready to run a big one.  

In a general sense, I also like to try to get a feel for how these colts are handling the Churchill surface. I am of the opinion that Churchill has a very quirky surface and some horses just can\'t get a hold it.  So I think it greatly benefits the handicapper to see a workout over that track if they\'ve never raced on it before.  Unfortunately, we have guys like Pletcher that refuse to get this and keep their horses in Florida for as long as they can, so all we have to go on is their gallops.  And if evaluating workouts is tough, gallops are even tougher.

Anyway, thought this was an excellent post by Jim and just wanted to throw in my two cents.

[Beginner]

MJ,
Any chance you can point me to a video example of what you would view as a strong double gallop out (or how you would define it).  Is it simply going 2 extra furlongs in 25 and change?  Sorry, I\'ve seen you reference it a handful of times and I\'m not sure I have a solid handle on it.  Thanks.

[mjellish]

Sorry.  Don\'t have a video and don\'t know how to find one.  

But what I look for is a worker who continues to run on after the work, without being asked, and reels off another furlong in around 13 seconds, or even better is 12 and change or two furlongs in 25-26.  I also like to know how the worker handled the turns during and after the work.  Do they stay in the same path or do they drift out.  A horse that gallops out strong after a brisk work and still keeps on going and hugs the same path around the turn is telling you they are ready to go around the track again.

Recent derby workouts that come to mind and fit the bill are Barbaro, Street Sense, Big Brown (in FL) & Animal Kingdom.  So if you can find a video of any of those you will know what I am talking about.  Rachel Alexandra also comes to mind as she may have had one of the best works ever just like this before her romp in KY Oaks.

Sorry I couldn\'t be of more help with a vid.