Arkansas Derby

[sekrah]

I\'m keying Holy Candy up in the Bluegrass, but in the Arkansas Derby I think Borel has a live one with Najjaar and should get a great trip.  I\'ll be using both him and Cozzetti heavy in the exotics.

[ajkreider]

Najjaar is one I would like to see in the Derby.  Always running at the end, and would add a lot to the exotics - won\'t have the money though.  A little worried that he didn\'t get up in the Rebel, as slow as they were going at the end.  Can\'t leave out of the super, here.

[Dark Bay]

I tossed the entire Rebel field.  All those impressive closes were optical illusions.     Left with Stat,  Cozzetti, Isn\'t He Clever & Bodemeister.  Likely Isn\'t He Clever on the win end but I\'ll find a way to use the others on top and underneath in exactas.

Good luck folks. We\'re about to learn a thing or two.

[miff]

Bodemeister,another slow Cali invader, runs fastest 3yr old prep by a pole in the TG neg -2 territory, monster last 1/8th shading 12 seconds.See if big game hunter Baffy can recharge this one in 3 weeks.

Hansen, on the muscle pre race, ran well and should ensure a decent derby pace.

Mike

[TGJB]

How was that horse a slow anything? Adjusted for weights there was only one horse slightly faster (once, not recently), and he was a) significantly faster than the others, and b) making only his fourth start, for a guy who has been getting numbers out the...

If SC ran the same figure he has been (and it may be worse, given the three horse photo), Bodie will get a zero or slightly better. Which would be a 2 point top.

[miff]

JB,

You will have to ignore the fact that Bodemeister outran Alternation by about 5 lengths on the clock to give Bodemister less than a negative figure.You look in the same race for projection, I look at other races run at the same distance,i.e. Alternation race, carried a pound less.

Bode had a pair of Beyer to TG 1/2\'s going in.


Mike

[TGJB]

I look at both. And doing it your way Secret Circle (to say nothing of others) will get a big new top. You think that was the best race of SC\'s life?

[miff]

JB,

No on SC, but think if you kinda paired SC,then Bode gets his due.I put far more weight on the fact that Bode legitimately outran, on the clock, a bunch of older gr 1 and 2 types one race prior.

What will you give Alternation? How could you possibly justify NOT giving a horse that outran him on the clock(by app 7 lengths) a better fig by app 2 points?

Mike

[TGJB]

I have no idea what I\'m going to give Alienation, no idea if the track changed speed. But I do know that SC spotted Bodie 4 pounds and about 2-3 lengths in ground loss. And I know that nobody else in that photo had ever broken 4. If you give Bodie what you\'re talking about they all will get big new tops. Always possible-- we\'ll see-- but unlikely.

[ajkreider]

It was a monster last 1/8th, but it wasn\'t a monster last 3/8ths.  37.35 is very good, but not other-worldly.  The 25.38 prior quarter set it up a little.

Besides the Handicap, it\'s worth comparing with the 2-turn mile of the Northern Spur.  Master Rick went through the mile in the same time as Bode, with a final 1/8th in 12.06 and a final quarter in 24.05. And Drill will get the better number, being wide all the way round, and carrying 5 more than the winner, and 4 more than Bode.

The conclusion is that, for whatever reason, the handicap just wasn\'t that fast.  But Bode obviously gets a good number.

[phil23]

I wonder if this is a case of, assuming Bodi gets his new 2pt top instead of a really big 4 or even 5 pt one, that his pattern heading into the derby becomes much better, much more playable.  Whereas if he did run a -2.5 or so, then it would be bounce city, barring him being the reincarnation of Big Brown.

[toppled]

Beyers:
Bode got a 105
Alt 100
SC 89
Edit: Dullahan got a 98.  It wasn\'t available when I posted yesterday.

[ajkreider]

In addition to coming off the big number with 3 weeks rest, he\'ll be adding 8 pounds.  All the other favorites will be adding three.  Maybe he\'ll draw really badly and we won\'t have to think about it. (But if he is Big Brown, even that won\'t matter.)

[miff]

Nice, except that the 5 point differential does not reconcile with the 7.22 lengths that Bode outran Alternation. Obviously Beyer took creative license as the races went 30 minutes apart and there is nothing to point to a split variant or a change in track speed.Beyer choked on Bode\'s legit speed figure vs Alternation,expected!

Mike

[Dave]

I\'m thinking the obvious comparison to Curlin, who also didn\'t run at 2, and ran very fast, very early at 3.  If I recall, Curlin twice paired around 0, including a 10 length romp in the Ark Derby 3 wks before KD.  He then ran a nice 3rd behind a big Street Sense effort.