Hey listen, we all make mistakes. This Sunday I bet exclusively horizontal on 15 races (Keeneland, SA) never using more than 4 horses in the sequence. I hit 13 winners, 2 cold supers, 3 tris, 3 exactas in separate races......and broke even for the day when the losers broke some potentially good p3s and 4s. Oh well.
Regarding Union Rags and his odds, I don\'t think there\'s any way he goes below 5-1...especially if TG doesn\'t put him high in the mix. He might be higher given the Baffert factor...a lot depends upon the perception people get about workouts.
Given Gem is working in Florida, as I think I read, he may be the underbet horse in the mix. He gets no push from what people will be seeing at Churchill and he had the apparently slow winning time in his prep.
I hope Dullahan takes some betting...he\'s the least impressive prep winner of all of them...not a great number...not visually impressive unless you like watching the optical illusion of a closer closing on a frontrunner stopping.
I hope the Arabs and Europeans get nutty on the O\'Brien horse. He\'s not in the mix from my point of view. He beat Lucky Chappy (name?)...wow. And he has to travel around the world?
Creative Cause? I really have to give this one more thought. He wiped out Bode, but that could be a timing thing. He appeared to me to be hanging against Drug O\'Neill\'s SA Derby winner. Maybe it was a slight regression? Not sure.
If I had to bet it today, I would look for the winner among UR, Gem and Alpha because I think they all will go forward. I would put some of the speed, TCI,Bode, Hansen and Drug\'s horse in the mix behind them. I don\'t think there are any big surprises looming.
But I don\'t have to bet it today.