Union Rags

[covelj70]

ok, while we are all jonesing for the derby package to come out later today, I will try to fill the void with some thoughts on Union Rags

All final judgement reserved until we see who actually winds up in the gate due to last minute defections and posts and of course we need to see the final numbers but in the meantime....

....I am likely going to take a stand again Union Rags as the favorite.  It doesn\'t take much for me to try and play against a favorite and in this case, I think there\'a alot there to stand against

1) most importantly, he is not as fast as a number of others in the race.  He was great at two but he hasn\'t progressed so far from two to three and as I mentioned in another post, I don\'t like playing horses that have to move forward to win this race since so few of them do, let alone when he\'s the favorite

2) Matz has babied this horses into this race.  Everyone wants to draw the comparisons to Barbaro but the DRF article yesterday quantified what I have been feeling, namely that Barabro had alot more of a three year old foundation.  He ran 3 races as a 3 year old while UR has had 2 and as the DRF documented, Matz pushed Barbaro alot harder in the mornings than he has UR.

3) Barbaro came into this race undefeated and having accomplished something truly special in winning from the outside post at Gulfstream in the Florida Derby, in other words, overcoming adversity.  Meanwhile, UR doesn\'t seem to be able to overcome any adversity.  The trip he had in the Florida Derby wasn\'t nearly as bad as the media makes it out to be.  He had every chance to make a run down the lane and he just wasn\'t good enough.  Even if he wasn\'t fully cranked, he should have been good enough to beat those and more to the point, what has he done since then to get more cranked up, 2 relatively easy breezes since the race with one more next weekend?

4) Leparoux is one of my favorite jocks but he waits forever to make a move and that\'s great when he\'s riding on the turf but that\'s not how you win the Derby.  You need to be right there at the 3/8ths pole and that\'s not his style.

Given these views, I probably just locked in the triple crown for this creature and assured I will be tearing up all of my tickets on May 5th but in this race, you have to take a stand somewhere and right now, this is how I am leaning

please anyone let me know what I could be missing

[Caradoc]

Jim: I understand your points.  As to 1), true, but he does have a decent pattern and nice spacing into the race and you would think all other things being equal he should continue in that form.  Regarding 2), I do trust Matz but agree that so far he has not put the screws to UR.  We\'ll see what happens in the next two weeks.

The other thing that troubles me is the pedigree.  Based on an analysis of that (and that to my eyes he didn\'t accelerate impressively in the Florida Derby once free) he may have already run as far as he wants to go.  At most you can say that Dixie Union provides a distance-neutral influence.  The dam has produced 5 horses who have any meaningful race record in North America (Miss Pauline, Geefour, Traveling Alone, Elton, and Tempo West), and not one of them ran better numbers going long than sprinting.  Geefour is particularly relevant, as he is a full brother to UR, and he was a sprinter pure and simple.

[JR]

My review of the archives shows of the last 30 winners, 18 improved at least 1 pt. with 8 of those 18 improving 3 pts. or better. 10 paired tops. 2 ran off races. Are 1 pt. improvements not considered tops but instead, pair ups?

[Michael D.]

As you note, the stretch run of the Fla Derby is important - a legit question mark. Rags ripped off sub :12 1/8\'s from the 3/8 to the 1/8 pole, then ran a :12.57 final 1/8 with a :06.37 final 1/16. He ran just a half length faster than El Padrino through the last 1/16, and that guy was hung wide the entire way. UR should have been able to run down TCI, or at least make it a photo. He wasn\'t flying as fast a most think. It\'s not simply a matter of getting an extra 1/8 to work with; Rags needs to get better.

As of now, I do think Matz has a plan to get Rags to peak at the right time. If not, there\'s gonna be some serious value out there.

[mjellish]

You make some good points Jim.  Plus this horse was working like a monster before the FL Derby.  So he should have been able to bring his \"A\" race.  But with that slow pace, I think it was going to be hard for anyone to make up much ground on Take Charge Indy.  The front runners were already hanging around in the other races as it was that day.  So I don\'t know how much to fault UR for not catchiing TCI.  

That being said, the special ones usually find a way to get it done without excuses.  So you have to, at a minimum, at least say that UR is beatable.  Had he won the FL Derby he probably goes off as the 5/2 favorite in Louisville.  Now you will probably get a little more than twice that price.  And I would have to think he would still be on most vertical tickets, so tossing him altogether out of the Tri and Super definately creates a lot of value if you turn out to be right.

[alm]

It all depends upon how you bet the race.  If I felt the way you do I would stay away from him on horizontals, but not necessarily on verticals.  I appreciate your comment on Julien.  The ride in Florida was difficult to watch.  However, the guy is a premier jockey and I do not think he is a liability on ANY horse.  Jerry had an earlier post on Dixie Unions and their development, which might be meaningful in throwing a wet blanket over this horse.  However, getting back to verticals, I would not want to bet that this guy throws a complete stinker and backs up in the lane, finishing off the board.  He fit a pattern that bothers me, coming off the layoff with a sharp win and then regressing.  Sometimes it seems horses have a hard time getting back to the first race back, but often they fire enough to play a role.

[Ill-bred]

If you view the Fla Derby by itself, the race was a disappointment for Union Rags and his fans.

If you look at it as a prep for the 10f Derby, it looks useful.

[Niall]

The lack of development and to a lesser degree the pedigree are certainly causes for concern. Perhaps the only ones ... While not figure related there are 2 points that I would like to hear comments on. The first is while I think the trip UR got in the FLA Derby has been overstated, EVERYONE I speak to thinks it was the PERFECT prep for the KY Derby. Hemmed in and forced to wait. I also thought he had enough time to get going but didnt, at least until he got to the outside. Inexperience? Watch his Saratoga race and the BC Juv and this horse runs green at times. That brings me to point 2, trainer intent. It seems the one\'s that really needed the $$$ to get in ran the biggest races. Contrary to the previous post I am going to look at the 1st nice race out of the box, followed by a slight regression (?) to lead into an explosive move forward !! I think at the minimum he runs his race but dont know if its good enough to crack the tri, especially if some of the others move forward.

[Rick B.]

Ill-bred Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If you view the Fla Derby by itself, the race was
> a disappointment for Union Rags and his fans.
>
> If you look at it as a prep for the 10f Derby, it
> looks useful.

Nobody ever accused me of being the sharpest tool in the shed, nor of having any sort of avant garde thinking capabilities, but...am I the only one that has extreme difficulty looking at ANY race with a purse of $1 million as a mere \"prep race\"?

[sixmoreouts]

I have to say it bothers me that Barbaro made a solid move forward in the 2006 Florida Derby, and Union Rags apparently did not.  I believe that Matz was preparing Union Rags with such a move in mind, but there was no \"there\" there. Granted, no two horses trained by the same trainer are alike.  But in his mind\'s eye, I have to think Matz views Union Rags as much closer to Barbaro as a Derby prospect than, say, Visionaire.

[MonmouthGuy]

Agree with these thoughts, and since  El Padrino will probably be 25/30-1 with a nice looking sheet, I think he might be the serious value in the race. He would be my key if I was betting right now.

[Donut]

What does Nick Salusto think? He knows this horse well.

[Holybull1]

MonmouthGuy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Agree with these thoughts, and since  El Padrino
> will probably be 25/30-1 with a nice looking
> sheet, I think he might be the serious value in
> the race. He would be my key if I was betting
> right now.

El Padrino is in the 15-1 range offshore and at the Wynn right now and this was the steam horse I was referring to yesterday.  He should be 6th or 7th choice and won\'t be more than 20-1.  Even there, he\'d be my key right now as well.

[Donut]

Hj