derby history

[justwin]

looked back at the history and only 4 horses in the last 30 years won the derby by backing up by more than 1/2 point in the racE prior to the derby. swale, thunder gulch, monarchos & smarty. this would knock out about 8  of the 20 horses including i\'ll have another. any thoughts if i should ignore this data. i will look at how many horses that ran that backed up vs. not so we can see the %\'S later when i get a chance. i appreciate the all the sharp sheet users thoughts.

[justwin]

here is the data based on horses backing up more than 1 pt in the race prior to the derby:

yr, # of horses, finished in the money
2011, 4, 0
2010, 4, 0
2009, 4, 0
2008, 5, 1, denis of cork 3rd
2007, 4, 0
2006, 7, 1, bluegrass cat 2nd
2005, 1, 0
2004, 5, 2, smarty jones 1st, imperialism 3rd
2003, 3, 0
2002, 3, 0
2001, 4, 1, monarchos 1st
2000, 3, 0
1999, 4, 0
1998, 3, 0
1997, 1, 0

Is this data useful at all in looking at how to play the derby. it seems the horse has to be coming in on his best to win. this would knock out 4 of the top 9 including a couple recently discussed by many.

[covelj70]

This is terrific analysis, thank you so much for the effort.

I do think the amount of time between the top that created the backward move and the Derby itself is impportant (i.e. longer the better) but it\'s hard to argue with this data.

Thanks again

[mjellish]

I dunno.  I think it\'s valid to keep this data set in mind when including a colt coming in off a regression.  

But I also think a lot has changed in the past 5 years about the way trainers bring their horses into Louisville.  Remember in 2006 when Matz brought Barbaro in fresh off a 5 week layoff and everyone was crucifying him for it by pointing out that no horse had ever won off more than 4 weeks rest.  When Barbaro romped that changed a lot of trainers thinking. It was just a few years ago that it was standard practice to run in the FL Derby, then the Bluegrass or whatever and then in Louisville.  You don\'t see campaigns like that now unless they really need the earnings.

The data would also seem to indicate that if you are right about including a horse off a regression you will be rewarded, as DOC, BGC and Imperialism keyed some pretty nice Trifectas.

[Dave]

Appreciate your work here.  I\'d be interested to see who it is if you have it handy.  I don\'t mind looking myself, but if you have it handy, please share.  It\'s one thing for the 30-1 + outsiders to backup, but it\'s another for horses among the top 5 betting interests.

[Wrongly]

I think it\'s interesting that those three horses were all closers.  It appears to me that very few front runners or early pressers hit the board when they start backing up.  Something like 76% of show, and 72% of 4th place runners are closers or deep closers over the past 10 years.

[JR]

I view it just the opposite. The longer the recovery time the less likely the bounce. I\'d be more inclined to blame the bounce on the layoff rather than on the stress of the big effort.

[miff]

\"Appreciate your work here. I\'d be interested to see who it is if you have it handy. I don\'t mind looking myself, but if you have it handy, please share. It\'s one thing for the 30-1 + outsiders to backup, but it\'s another for horses among the top 5 betting interests\"

Dave,

This and all other unfiltered statistics pretty meaningless.Wonder how many Derby entrants that did not race as a two yr old, since Apollo 1882,were the fastest going in,like Bodemeister.


Mike

[JR]

Agree plenty with the first part. Training techniques have changed. Up until 2006 trainers hadn\'t had great success with just 2 prep races. But since then, they\'ve taken the last 5 runnings. Also true horses coming in off regressions have filled out some nice exotics.

[Wrongly]

Miff

2007 Curlin came in with a 0 and finished 3rd
2000 Trippi came in with a 4 and Finished 11th - not the top figure that year maybe 3rd fastest.

Don\'t have the figures but none of these ran as a 2-year old.
1997 Pulpit finished 4th
1994 Strodes Creek 2nd
1992 Devil his Due 12th
1982 Air Forbes Won finished 7th as the chalk
1973 Forego finished 4th

[miff]

Thanks Wrong,

Bet Pulpit,from memory,was not fastest, maybe like 3rd-4th.


Mike

[justwin]

I don\'t have it handy but will gladly do the work. i will give the names, odds and where they finished. I will try to get the # of weeks to the race where they backed up and # of weeks to the derby.

[Rick B.]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This and all other unfiltered statistics pretty
> meaningless.Wonder how many Derby entrants that
> did not race as a two yr old, since Apollo
> 1882,were the fastest going in,like Bodemeister.

I might be willing to bet against a 130 year trend if I was getting a real good price -- say, 10-1 or more -- but I can\'t imagine that Bodemeister will be anything but a mild underlay, at best.

Just wondering, Mike -- assuming decent post position and no other weirdness going on (e.g., Baffert switches jocks and puts Julio Pezua up), what is the least you would accept to make a win bet on Bode?

[JR]

If this perspective matters at all, Bode was still a 1 race maiden when the first batch of future sheets was released. I also wonder why so little is being made of his slight regression and bo in his 3rd start.

[miff]

Rick B,

Probably have not made a win bet on a horse in years.Swim in the pick 3, 4, and 6 pools most of the time.If I like a bomb, I try to turn him into a big score, greedy little wop!

Prone to totally disregard the 120 year trend, and the rest of the stats, focus squarely on the ability of the horses and how I believe they will perform on May 5th.A fair price for Bode would be in the 5-6 to 1 range subject to him drawing anything but the rail.Incidentally,do not feel any horse is worth less than 5-6 to 1 this year.


Good luck!

Mike