Given the likely odds, the only East Coast horse that intrigues me

[sekrah]

Mark Valeski.

Else it\'s Creative Cause, Bodemeister, I\'ll Have Another..  Hell even Rousing Sermon is more interesting to me to possibly grab a piece in a hot race than some of these others East Coasters that will be overbet IMO.

Still alot of workouts to be done between now and then though.

[Michael D.]

latest odds -

Bode 9-2
UR 5-1
Gem 7-1
Dull 8-1
IHA 10-1
CC 11-1
TCI 12-1
Alpha 14-1
Hansen 16-1
both Dads, WTDW, and El Pad 20-1 ish

[ajkreider]

For the most part, I agree about the first three, especially since two of them will be double digit prices.  Rousing Sermon I\'m not so sure.  He was running at the end of the LD, but they were limping home.  He won\'t be trying to run down Hero of Order on May 5th. Can\'t help but think El Padrino would have handled that field pretty comprehensively.

Very few direct comparison races between east and west coast horses.  If CC is the measuring stick, then UR, Hansen, Dullahan, and TCI belong - based on the Juvy.  But, the numbers are the numbers.

[Holybull]

Any thoughts on Mark Valeski\'s work yesterday?  It\'s up on youtube, and it seemd ok to this untrained eye.  Welsch said he lost inteest during the gallop out.

Rosie said Mark Valeski was \"limping\" after the La. Derby which can\'t be a positive - hopefully it was just a shoe issue. Jones said he\'s fine and the works indicate he\'s obviously not lame.

At this point I have my top pick narrowed down to 18 finalists.

[Ill-bred]

Valeski got a perfect trip in the Risen Star and still got run down by El Padrino.

Watching his replays, to me it looks like he runs too hot for 10f.

Toss.

[boston]

my bet these yesterday (4-25-12) in LV.

el pedrino 20-1
takechargeindy 18-1
mark valenski 40-1

[HP]

Sometimes first impressions are best, and turning this over 10,000 times does not help.  So first impressions...

Don\'t like Bodemeister

Leaning towards toss for Take Charge Indy, I\'ll Have Another, Alpha

Solid and likely to be good value - El Pedrino, Mark Valeski, Prospective, Daddy Nose Best

Can\'t toss Hansen, Union Rags or Gemologist but they certainly don\'t tower over the \"good value\" horses listed above

HP

[Holybull]

HP Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sometimes first impressions are best, and turning
> this over 10,000 times does not help.  So first
> impressions...
>
> Don\'t like Bodemeister
>
> Leaning towards toss for Take Charge Indy, I\'ll
> Have Another, Alpha
>
> Solid and likely to be good value - El Pedrino,
> Mark Valeski, Prospective, Daddy Nose Best
>
> Can\'t toss Hansen, Union Rags or Gemologist but
> they certainly don\'t tower over the \"good value\"
> horses listed above
>
> HP

Agree with almost everything but wondering why you think Take Charge Indy is tossable?  His sheet looks good.  Thoro-pattern looks very good.  His running style and jockey should help get him a decent trip.  He may be just a tad slow but certainly has license to improve.

[HP]

I wouldn\'t try to talk you out of it.  

He had a 9 top as a 2yo, so the 3 may be it.  At a glance, I don\'t like the spacing of this year\'s campaign, but it\'s a whole new world now.  He will face a radically different pace scenario in the KDerby vs. the FDerby and that may not cue an improvement, and he probably needs to move up here to get in the picture.  Finally, I don\'t know what to make of Byrne.  

My post is more about trying to find a winner.  He just doesn\'t look the part to me compared to some of the others.  If he\'s 10-1 because he won the FDerby and El Padrino and some of the others are faster and 20-1 and up why am I betting on him?  More inclined to see him underneath at best.  HP

[Holybull]

HP Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I wouldn\'t try to talk you out of it.  
>
> He had a 9 top as a 2yo, so the 3 may be it.  At a
> glance, I don\'t like the spacing of this year\'s
> campaign, but it\'s a whole new world now.  He will
> face a radically different pace scenario in the
> KDerby vs. the FDerby and that may not cue an
> improvement, and he probably needs to move up here
> to get in the picture.  Finally, I don\'t know what
> to make of Byrne.  
>
> My post is more about trying to find a winner.  He
> just doesn\'t look the part to me compared to some
> of the others.  If he\'s 10-1 because he won the
> FDerby and El Padrino and some of the others are
> faster and 20-1 and up why am I betting on him?
> More inclined to see him underneath at best.  HP

I WANT to be talked out of him and Creative Cause and focus on the other ones you mentioned like El Padrino and Mark Valeski.

TCI ran way better than 9 as a 2YO.  And based on those numbers it seems there is plenty of room to improve, especially at longer distances.  I\'d love to toss him but I can\'t find anything to knock.

[HP]

I\'m not counting the 2yo polytrack races for TCI.  9 top on dirt.  I agree with your other points.  He could improve.  

I don\'t like Creative Cause at all.  Horse backed up going 9f?  Goodbye.  That\'s not what winners look like.  Check out the Derby archives.  I have a much stronger opinion on that than I do on TCI.  

HP

[Ill-bred]

I suppose TG users are skeptics/price hunters by nature, but is it not obvious which horse has the best TG sheet?

Hint, he looked like the ghost of Barbaro galloping at Keeneland last week.

Or, is the \"no-break-thru first two starts at 3\" pattern a negative sign?

For me that\'s the most important read in here.

[justwin]

I view that as a negative, but i\'ve only used sheets for 1 1/2 years. The best sheet is gemologist in my opinion.

[Holybull]

Ill-bred Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I suppose TG users are skeptics/price hunters by
> nature, but is it not obvious which horse has the
> best TG sheet?
>
> Hint, he looked like the ghost of Barbaro
> galloping at Keeneland last week.
>
> Or, is the \"no-break-thru first two starts at 3\"
> pattern a negative sign?
>
> For me that\'s the most important read in here.

Thoro-pattern certainly isn\'t negative on him.  If he crushes, 4-1 will look awfully generous in hindsight.   Even if he has the best sheet, everyone likes to look for value.  Really, what else is there to do for the next 10 days?

[plasticman]

Could ANY horse at 4-1 be generous in a 20 horse field considering the watered down nature of today\'s thoroughbred?