Rich Curtis Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Streetbull wrote:
>
> \"The winner has to be on the lead by the top of
> the stretch and have the best sustained fraction
> from one of the running lines from the Derby prep
> races...\"
>
> If, as you say, the winner has to have the lead
> at the top of the stretch, what difference does
> his sustained fraction make? He could come home
> like a turtle and it wouldn\'t make any
> difference--since all the horses behind him would
> be prevented from winning the race by the fact
> that they did not have the lead at the top of the
> stretch.
The following post is from the research and post by Smalltimer two years ago before the Derby.....
The Stretch Call Says It All (676 Views)
Posted by: smalltimer (IP Logged)
Date: April 14, 2010 12:32PM
If a horse is NOT in the top 6 at the Stretch call, he will not hit the board. The Derby is a race thats decided by each horse\'s positional call within the race.
Let me illustrate:
I chose the last 6 Kentucky Derbies to point out some rather subtle happenings during the race. Among those last 6 races, there were 4 fast tracks, 2 sloppy tracks. There was a strong favorite in Big Brown, 3 solid favorites in Street Sense, Barbaro and Smarty Jones. These last 6 races were won by stalkers and closers.
I took all 120 horses and just used the 4 finishers in each race to come up with the following:
IF.....your horse is not his race placement position or passing horses from the 3/4 mile point to the 1 Mile pole, they will not hit the board. Why? 100% of the 25 horses that have hit the board in the last 6 Derbies say so. (I had to include both Brother Derek and Jazil due to their dead-head for 4th in 2006).
Examples from the 3/4 call to the 1 mile call in the last 6 races:
MTB 19 to 12, Pioneer 3 to 2, Musket 8 to 7, Papa 6 to 4;
Big Brown 6 to 1, Eight Belles 5 to 3, Denis 20 to 13, Tale 7 to 5;
Street Sense 17 to 3, Hard Spun 1 to 1, Curlin 14 to 8, Imawildguy 20 to 16;
Barbaro 4 to 1, Bluegrass 6 to 3, Steppen 11 to 6, Bro. Derek 14 to 10, Jazil 19 to 17;
Giacoma 18 to 11, Clo. Argument 6 to 4, Afleet 9 to 6, Don\'t Get Mad 19 to 10;
Smarty 2 to 2, Lion 1 to 1, Imperialism 13 to 10, Limehouse 6 to 6.
25 horses that made the supers and all 25 either maintained their running position in the race or were passing horses between the 3/4 and mile mark.
This stat is even more revealing: At the head of the STRETCH, with the exception of Wildandcrazy guy, all runners were in the top 7 at that Stretch call.
In addition, from the 3/4 call to the 1 mile call, 21 horses moved up and 4 stayed in the same numerical running positions.
Lastly. In the run from the 1 mile marker to the finish, 19 of the 25 horses were passing others, 4 horses maintained their numerical running position, and only 2 horses lost their numerical running positions (Hard Spun from 1st to 2nd, and Lion Heart from 1st to 2nd position).
The last horse to take the lead from the gate and still have the lead at stretch call was NOBODY. Not one of these really good 3 year olds could maintain the lead to the STRETCH call.
I know Miff will like this, but the only horse that did not have the lead at the Stretch call was Giacomo. All the others, MTB, Brown, Street Sense, Barbaro, and Smarty all won.
We all think we know \"how\" we envision the race might be ran. These last 6 Derbies represent a decent cross-section of how they might be run. We\'re likely to see a 2010 version that mirrors at least one of these type Derbies.
FWIW, at the 1/2 mile call, only 56% of those horses in the top half of the field eventually hit the board. Same thing at the 3/4 mark, only 56%. The race doesn\'t even start until between the 3/4 and mile point in the race.
