bodemeister-thoropattern

[justwin]

the thoropattern shows a 39% chance for a new top. wondering how much value to put into the thoropattern. if its accurate, bode won\'t lose with a new top which puts the fair odds on bode at 3-2.

[RICH]

the thoropattern is just that, a pattern analysis, in this case the Top-pr-top for 3yr olds apri-june. It needs to be used in context with the horses pattern, in this case Bode. Without giving away the figs, 39% run a new top off this pattern, if for example, the pattern was 6-7-0, would that give you confidence in a 39% new top today? I would look at this horse to run the off/X race at 36%. It all depends on what tops and pair we are talking about. In Bode\'s case, its a difficult read. Lets say he\'s 39% to run a new top, and that it would probably give him a 35% chance to win, your talking fair odds around 6/7-1. That\'s would I would be looking for if I bought into it. Good Luck

[Gerard]

Long time listener, first time caller.

Question for covelj70 if you are out there. You\'ve brought this point up before after a big win. Would you put Bode in the category of potentially having a poor start for the KD?

[covelj70]

Gerard,

Do you mean the point about that often times after a big fig that horses break poorly in the next race (ala I Want Revenge in the Wood post his huge Gotham figure)?

If that\'s what you mean, it\'s a great question.

I would say I think it\'s alot less likely for Bode than the average horse because of Baffert and how he trains them and how he breaks them out of the gate.

Stay tuned for more thoughts on this later today or tomorrow about Baffert.  I have alot to say on the subject that I don\'t think is being discussed enough but I am actually crazy busy at work this week so might have to wait until tomorrow night when things settle down.

thanks

Thanks alot

[Gerard]

Thanks for getting back. Yes exactly, AK in the Preakness as well. I was just thinking from a pace scenario, bounce scenario, but I agree on Baffert, and with the blinks off, he may have just turned into a different kind. Anyway, looking forward to the always helpful insight.