HANSEN

[MO]

I stated in another thread prior to the BG, that I think Hansen will win the Ky Derby. Since the BG, I must say I am happy with what has developed and with the potential for a big score.

Let me first say that the Derby is one of the rare occassions straight betting where I show a positive ROI since my first Derby win in 1985 (Spend a Buck).

I also adhere strictly to the dual qualifier system, and horses must have finished in the top 3 in their last start (or 4th with a really good excuse like Sea Hero in the BG).

Winners have been Spend a Buck, Alysheba, Sea Hero ($36.40 in New Mexico), Silver Charm, War Emblem, Street Sense, and Super Saver. (a 25% win %).

2nds have been 49er, Easy Goer, TEJANO RUN, Lion Heart.

3rd with Cat Thief.

The Derby is Hansen\'s race to lose. Never worse than 2nd, has a win over the track, has speed which should keep him out of traffic and he has the 3rd fasted TG fig going into the race. He\'s also had 2 full months to recover from that race, and his bounce in the BG on poly track was his 2nd best career figure. I read somewhere he\'s currently 16-1 in Las Vegas. I would be tickled with 8-1 on what I think is a mortal lock to be in the exacta. The only thing that would worry me is drawing inside. I want to draw outside all the speed, preferably breaking from the 10-12 hole.

Ideally the race sets up with Trinni and Bode knocking each other out, Hansen stalking in 3rd until the top of the stretch. (Let me add I\'d rather have an Angel Cordero or a Pat Valenzuela on this horse. Ramon is solid, makes few mistakes but he can not move a horse up like some of the greats of the past).

Bodemeister is a sure thing to bounce. I\'d be surprised if he\'s on the board even if he got an uncontested lead. He\'s only had 3 weeks rest off a big jump and a neg #. Beat nothing in Ark and he never ran as a 2yo. Like dosgae and dual qualifiers, the percentages of unraced 2yos winning the Derby don\'t lie. However, I see a possible rebound in the Preakness.

Now should Hansen draw poorly, I may save with Creative Cause (ran well at CD - but I wonder what the stats are for progeny of Giants Causeway at CD -are they similar to those of Easy Goer?), the undefeated Gemologist and Union Rags (his FL Derby was a lot better than it looked. He rebroke after the traffic jam. Problem is a bigger traffic jam in Louisville. Same potential problem for CC).

BTW. I caught War Emblem as a saver. It was the one time I bet 2 horses to win. The other horse was Came Home.

Only once have I fallen in love with the 2yo champ and bet him back in the Derby (Sea Hero). I\'m not in love with Hansen, but when I cashed on his BC race, I said out loud \"There\'s the Derby winner\".

Now , how to bet? I think I can get 2-1 just betting to show. fantastic betting opportunity in my opinion. I might bet $500 (my largest wager since the 1992 BC when I had some FU money to burn) to show and maybe a token $50 win and place ticket. If he draws poorly, then I\'ll box Hansen, CC, UR and Gemologist. My thinking is if you can get great odds on one horse, don\'t mess with the exotics.

Good luck to all and to all a safe trip.

[Lost Cause]

Hansen really looked like a beat horse at the end of the Blue grass and the BC Juvy and I don\'t think Hansen is as tractable as you think.  I don\'t think this horse will be comfortable being rated and will be dead by the time they hit the eighth pole which will be his 1 1/8th limit.  Not saying he can\'t get the trip with lesser horses but I don\'t see him doing it with this level.

[justwin]

I agree that he is pushing his limits but there have been horses that have distance limitations that hang around at the finish. Lion Heart & Shackleford off the top of my head. I wouldn\'t toss him from the exotics so quickly but he will not be on my win ticket.

[MO]

I would only point out that he still gallopped out in front after the wire (Dullahan was pulled up), and, that he had a right to bounce in the BG coming in after a 5 point new top. Remember: he didn\'t need to win the race (unlike Bode), so he likely wasn\'t fully cranked, and coupled with the effects of the Gotham, you have to look at the 3 in the BG in a positive light. The question about getting the distance applies to every horse. So I look at the 9F races. If he can hit the exacta there, he can do it at 10F simply because of the competition. You are playing against mostly other horses that haven\'t hit the exacta at 9F. Why would I expect they hit the exacta at 10F?

[alm]

By dual qualifier system, do you mean the dosage system?  Which gets changed after about every other Derby to back fill the Derby winners who didn\'t qualify in advance?  Or do you have your own take on some subject that has the same name?

[MO]

The one you mention. I have some issues with it. I think Strike the Gold was a fluke and his dosage was adjusted after the race. But weeding out those few exceptions, the numbers are impressive and numbers don\'t lie.

[alm]

Forgive me for disagreeing...in this case the numbers do lie.  For example, do you know what percentage of thoroughbred horses born in the world fit the \'correct\' dosage pattern and what percentage do not?  That is, at any given time, since the classic sires list has changed over the years?  I have bred about 65 horses during my life and most of them fit within the classic dosage category.  Most of them could only sprint.  Slightly over 5% of them ran in stakes, which is about average.  One of them was a state-bred champion, which is probably about average.  

My point is that it is an easy statistic to lump in with the more relevant information you used in your analysis...chances are you didn\'t have many to eliminate based upon dosage as opposed to the number you eliminated based upon the other information that you used.

By the way, the only non-average statistic that my breeding has included is the fact that over 90% of all my foals became winners.  Almost double the average.  But before you start saying \'hey, that proves something about dosage\' let me explain that I culled my broodmares pretty aggressively and most of the winners came from only 3 mares...a couple of them had 100% winners.  Got nothing to do with dosage.

[MO]

With all do respect to your experience in breeding - I have none, what I\'m saying is that dosage is only 1/2 of the dual qualifyer angle. The other half - being within 10 pounds of the highweight on the Experimental Handicap.

I use this chart for dosage:
http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/derby_dosage.htm

Note the dosage is pre Derby and not adjusted to fit subsequent victories or post Derby changes in sire rankings. In this example since 1985, only 5 of the 27 winners did not qualify on dosage, just 18.5%. That\'s 81.5% who did qualify. But as you say it is just one angle added to the heap of other factors I use.

Yes, for sure, as you say most horses who enter the Derby have the proper dosage. However, only a handfull are dual qualifyers which makes it a lot easier to narrow down the field to live contenders.

The TG numbers and analysis/archives were added to my handicapping beginning with Silver Charm.I wouldn\'t think of handicapping the Derby without them, but at the same time I\'d never bet a non dual qualifyer to win.

Cheers!

[TGJB]

Mark-- looking at how they are rated as 2yos is a secondary measure, meant to reflect how GOOD they were as 2yos. And you can figure that out directly by looking at their 2yo figures.

[Holybull]

No dual qualifiers in the superfecta.

[MO]

Not the only handicapping approach that failed on Saturday. Sh!t happens.

At least I

 1. Didn\'t load up as originally planned and 2. I knew he was done in the post parade and I posted that fact pre race. When you think about it, I handicapped the hell out of this race and was right on so many points, just didn\'t get paid. Morning Line analysis, got my price, knew UR would get a bad trip, knew Dullahan was better on poly, knew TCI preferred GP, knew Alpha was a toss based on antibiotics, knew to toss El Padrino because of the post. I had my money on the best horses with the best draws. Neither one fired. Royal Flushes always fire.... Variables.................

Now gimme a 14 horse field at CD on May 5, put IHA in the 14 hole and we got a new ball game.