Take Charge Indy

[justwin]

I know trainers always say their horse is doing great but you can tell Byrne wasn\'t just going through the motions. He believes TCI is doing as good as possible. He also has one of the more puzzling lines. terrible 2 yo line but I like the small paired tops to start the year.

[HP]

I just read that on DRF.com.  

ZZZZZZZZZZZ.  

The workout sounds like ZZZZZZZZZZZ (yawn) as well.  And this is his \"final prep?\"  As in NO WORK at Churchill?  Closer to tossing now.  

HP

[justwin]

Read the article on bloodhorse.com. DRF has very little. This is not standard trainer talk. You can toss him but I have not decided what to do as he has paired tops coming in and can\'t be doing any better. Any thoughts on the paired tops after an ugly 2 yo pattern.

[HP]

I took your suggestion and read it.  Meh.  Looks like a decent work, no more, no less.  I think it is pretty standard trainer talk, for a guy who\'s excited to be back at the big dance again.  

My thoughts on the 2 year old pattern...I don\'t hold the poly races against him.  Looks like the longer he went, the less he liked it, but it could also be a function of backing up off that big debut number?  That debut is a pretty huge effort for a 2 year old right out of the box.  

I\'m curious as to why the horse only ran twice this year, but maybe this is new in vogue two races up to the Derby style.  Another one where I\'m supposed to believe the horse was not fully cranked or capable of any improvement at all at a time where quality horses are supposed to be improving if they are going to win the Derby.  These guys are all magicians now who can just push the button on Derby day and get the big effort.  

I\'m skeptical.  I think he can go either way.  Like I said awhile ago, I wouldn\'t try to talk anyone off him, he still seems like a borderline contender to me, he could improve a little and win and he\'s one where distance should not be a problem.  I would\'ve been more positive with a really smoking work, just to humor me and let me know there was indeed something more looming there.      

HP

[Edgorman]

One could read this sheet as backing up on Poly. He has yet to bounce on dirt.  Could be ready for an improved effort at CD.

[milwmike]

TCI was scheduled to run in Tampa Derby.  Drew the extreme outside post and Byrne scratched him.  In addition to the draw, I believe he was concerned about bouncing off the new top and how best to get him to the Derby.

[mjellish]

IMO TCI had a perfect set of circumstances in the FL Derby, on an easy lead with no pressure through slow fractions on a front running track with a ground saving trip.  Usually horses that get this type of set up run the best figure they possibly can.  It is very unlikely that he will see that type of set up in Louisville.  So for me it\'s tough to figure he improves at all.

He also has Calvin on him.  That fact alone will make him go off as an underlay IMO.  But, if the CD strip is messed up, again, for another big race day, who knows.  Calvin is the only jock I see that regularly rides within inches of the rail at CD.  And that can often be the best possible place to be - by far - an an auto move up of any horse that runs there, especially if the track is sloppy.  Look at Calvin\'s rides on Super Saver, Mine That Bird and Street Sense, to name a few Derby winners.  Watch his ride on Atta Boy Roy on Derby Day 2010.  Look at how he rode Dennis of Cork in 2008.

So for me, the only thing I like about TCI is that he has Calvin on him.  But that also assures there will be no value to be had by usuing him other than as a saver of some type.

Just my opinion anyway.

[Wrongly]

MrJellyfish  I think has hit the nail on the head.  People from the Louisville area love Calvin and are willing to bet him no matter what he\'s riding.  He\'ll be the underrlay of the day.  Granted anything can happen if the track comes up wet (fyi, long range wether has 60% chance of rain on Oaks and 30% on Derby Day but that\'s a long ways away).  Won\'t get the lead and the two prior times that happened he got run down by El Padrino and by Shared Property.  Looks like a X to me.