We have our steam horse

[covelj70]

I have gotten no fewer than 10 calls or messages from people today about how great Union Rags looked and trained this morning.  A bunch from people who were there and then some second hand.

This makes it so tough for me because on one hand, he\'s no faster than a bunch of others and I really don\'t think he\'s going to get the trip he needs (i.e. clean so that he doesn\'t get stopped but not too wide).  

On the other hand, last time I ignored some of the same people who told me how great he looked was when they told me how great Big Brown looked before his Derby win.  I stubbornly played against him on the bounce theory and the post and subsequetly tore up all my tickets.

If he breezes tomorrow like he galloped today, this horse will be 4-1 and I just don\'t know what to do about that.

[plasticman]

You also have an incredibly great jock, its not like this horse is being ridden by someone who is going to just butcher the ride.

I hate when the \'favorite\' looks great.....the Derby is all about beating that short priced horse and coming up with a fancy 40 dollar winner of your very own.

Btw, GL today in the finale at Keeneland, great to see that 4 horse scratched out, gives you a much better shot!

[covelj70]

Thank you so much.

I was quite happy to see that scratch myself.  I thought that one was going to be tough.

If we aren\'t right there at the wire given how this horse has trained and the figure advantage he has on the turf over these, I am going to be very disappointed but the big man upstairs knows I have been disappointed before

thanks again

[Gerard]

I tried to beat BB as well, biggest mistake was BB was the fastest horse coming into the race. Won\'t make that mistake again. That\'s not the case here though, if he\'s 4-1, which I\'m a little skeptical on, I think you have to try and beat him. He\'s a major player, but without popping a number yet in his career, I want 6-1. With the other guys having the Fla. derby as a back up number, Bode getting a lot of press, and GEM taking a fair amount of money, we may get the 6-1.

[Silver Charm]

Good Luck Jim!

[mjellish]

I think this horse is going to move forward in this race.  I am willing to forgive his FL Derby as he really didn\'t get out to run until the last 250 yds.  With the slow early pace, although he came home his last 1/8 in 12 and change he was not going to catch TCI or finish the race with a strong figure.

That being said, even if he moves forward I don\'t think that has to make him the winner.  His breeding for the distance is OK.  But he also looks to me like a horse who does not want to be inside.  No way they are going to let him get pinned down by the rail again like in the FL Derby.  His last workout at Keenland they kept him in the 3 path all the way around.  So to me, that means wide trip in a 20 horse field and ground loss.  So even a big fig may not get him into the winners circle.  

Don\'t see how you can toss him though.  Even if you want to play against him, I would still use as a saver of some type.

[covelj70]

MJ,

I think you have it absolutely nailed that the horse doesn\'t want to be down on the inside.

I was VERY critical of the way Javier rode this horse in the Juvy last year but in hindsight, I think that\'s how he needs to get ridden.  He has a gigantic stride and so he really needs to be in the clear to make his run and there\'s no way that Julien will have him in traffic on the inside after the beating he took for the ride in the Florida Derby so I think a 5w5w trip is coming from Union Rags at least and I have been leaning toward tossing him based on that.

However, I think you have him right, I don\'t need to toss him out of everything like I did BB, even if I don\'t like him on top.

For those of you that weren\'t on the board at the time, MJ had a HUGE Score on the Big Brown derby and he was right for the right reasons on the whole race so anyone on the board looking for advice should definitely pay more attention to what he says than what I say as I tore up all my tickets on that one!

[mjellish]

Jim,

As I recall you had the KY Derby super in 2010, whereas I left SS off most of my tickets, and didn\'t use him in the win position on any of them, after you and several others on this board pointed out the merits of using him.  

Don\'t be so humble.

The more I look at this Derby, the more chalky it looks unless there is a complete pace breakdown or a sloppy track. I dunno how you can toss UR, GEM, or DUL with any real level of confidence.  I can see tossing Bode, but I can also see him winning.  I don\'t see any value to be had with UR & Bode on the same tri ticket unless you really like a bomber to hit with them, and you can\'t play all the bombers or you don\'t get any value that way either.  There is probably value in the Super no matter who you use together on the same ticket, but the initial matrix I laid out to bet the race that way is really something to behold.  It will take me at least an hour to punch out all of those tickets, maybe two, and that may just be what I wind up doing.

[Gerard]

There\'ve been some questions about him getting the distance, I guess as with all, but has anyone seen this pattern before. He is stretched out incrementally over his starts, only to keep putting in the same general number. I\'m sort of viewing it as he may be hitting his wall, but he was going well at the end in Fla. which makes him a real difficult toss. Any thoughts?

[covelj70]

lol, thanks buddy, in Calvin we trust!!!!!!!

[HP]

I\'m pretty confident tossing Dullahan.  While he could pair up, even if you think he\'s going to like dirt, he may back up off that Blue Grass number?  That was a big jump for him.  He did not show any particular affinity for dirt or CD as a 2yo.  And while many will invoke Mine That Bird, I don\'t think Even The Score is as strong as Birdstone as a sire?  I see Unbridled\'s Song back there.  Lean towards...toss.  

GEM\'s sheet looks a bit like Super Saver.  

HP

[mjellish]

HP-

Agree about Gem.  But I don\'t know about DUL.  Last couple of years I have completely ignored the Blue Grass.  My initial thought on this horse was to do the same.  But after looking at his sheet and watching his races, I dunno.  He\'s actually bred to like the dirt so this isn\'t they typical Blue Grass Poly one hit wonder horse.  His 4th in the BC JUV wasn\'t bad as he raced on the dead rail for most of the trip.  His sire line typically improves 5-6 points from two-three years old, which leaves him room for more development on that side.  Plus the dam seems to throw runners who improve a whole bunch from two to three.  Add all of that to that fact that it isn\'t abnormal to see a 2-3 point jump going Poly/Turf to dirt for horses that handle the surface switch anyway...  He seems to relax no matter what goes on in front or behind him and comes with his run no matter what.  He\'s also athletic with a turn of foot and can fire a quick burst of speed, cut around or weave through traffic.  And he\'s one of the few colts that haven\'t had a single issue all year.  EVERYTHING has gone exactly as planned for this guy.  He has been expertly handled by what I feel is one of the best trainers out there.  From what I can tell he is thriving at Churchill right now.  If he works well and gallops strong in the days afterwards...

I say toss at your own risk.  But I wish I didn\'t feel that way as you could turn out to be completely right and I may be completely wrong.  

Interesting colt anyway.

GL

[FrankD.]

MJ,

Hello and long time no chat, I too believe that Bode is the key to the race. Everything I\'ve leaned in the past 35 years tells me to toss him, big figure for a lightly raced horse, only 3 weeks in between, picks up 8 lbs and will be 1st or 2nd choice at 7/2 or 4/1. Not to mention that the big fig was earned at the quirkiest track in North America where I\'ve never had any luck with horses duplicating figures run there. I don\'t even bet Oaklawn at all, I\'m that bad there!!!!!!! I\'ll defer to miff\'s expertise in calling it a very fair track on that day.

I may use him horizontally and toss him vertically? I\'m not sure and can\'t really throw him out because he could wreck this bunch or be off the board.. I posted after the Florida Derby that I would bet El Padrino next out no matter where. I did not think he would squeak in with earnings but he\'ll be 20-25/1 off a total non effort. I loved Alpha moving forward and KM 3rd off is huge but an antibiotics toss. UR would have been 2/1 if not for a tough BC juvenile trip and a horrible effort by LeParoux in the Fla. Derby and he\'ll be 6/1.

So we\'re one week out and I\'m clueless.


Frank D.

[TGJB]

GEM\'s sheet looks even more like somebody else\'s, but I\'ll save that for the seminar...

[plasticman]

Ugh Jim, tough beat for the both of us, i was alive with a 1 dollar pick 5 to your pony. Great try, he was game, get em next time!