Bode, Baffert and the bounce?

[covelj70]

So, given that this is a TG board and that Bode is clearly the fastest horse on the TG figures, the real question from a TG perspective is, will Bode bounce?

If he doesn\'t bounce, I don\'t think he will lose as the other two horses who have run a figure close to Bode\'s number don\'t seem likely to replicate their good figures.

Just a quick second on why I don\'t think the other two fast ones will run their number and then onto the question about Bode.

In terms of both Hansen and Creative Cause, the only two in the same category as Bode TG wise, neither of them even have a secondary top that would be competitive.  Each of their big figures really stand out (not in a good way) relative to their other figures and both bounced badly coming off the big figures exactly as you would expect.

I don\'t like either of them to come back to their numbers off the big bounce and as a result, that leaves Bode several TG points clear of anyone else who has a prayer of getting the distance (is Trinniberg wins, I will quit the game).

So, will Bode bounce?

My short answer is that I give Bode as good of a chance to match his figure as I would give any horse in this situation. Doesn\'t mean he will, just that he has as good of a chance as anyone and there are some numbers on the sheets that help us think through this.

Look at Bafferts percentages after new tops of at least 1 point.  Off new tops of at least 1 point, he is 17% top, 34% pair, 23% off and 27% X.  I think Bode has a good chance to win this even with a \"1\" if he saves ground relative to the others as he should with his style so the percentages would say he has 74% chance to win this race save for a very big move forward from one of the others.  There are obviously some good horses in the race that could move forward off paired 2s or paired 3s but other than Take Charge Indy who Calvin will have down on the rail saving ground, Bode figures to save much more ground than UR, Gem, EP or MV.  I am leaving IHA off this list as the vet work and the goofy breeze this week suggest there\'s a problem there.

Of the 5 trainers that have horses coming into this race off new tops, here are the figures for the others. Dale is 15% top and 27% pair, Asmussen is 15% top and 30% pair, Hamilton Smith (God help me if Done Talking wins) is 20% top and 29% pair, and Graham Motion is 16% top and 37% pair (even better than Baffert for the combined number, not surprising as I think the man is an amazing trainer)

One of the logical explanations as to why Baffert\'s horses run so well relatively speaking after new tops is the foundation he has under them/into them before they run.  According to Baffert, he breezed Bode 30 (that\'s THIRTY) times before he ran him in his first start.  I am a believer that it\'s generally better for a horse fitness wise to race that breeze but Baffert\'s breezes are more like races than anyone else\'s breezes (thus the Bullet Bob moniker).  So, when one of Baffert\'s young horses run big, it\'s not likely going to hurt them as much given the very strong foundation they have before the big figure.

Of course he could still bounce and I could be wrong but I don\'t think a bounce here is as likely as a bounce from some of the others that are coming in off new tops and if he doesn\'t bounce or just bounces slighty, the sheets would have him winning this race.

Thougths?

[Perfect Drift]

IMO, Baffert\'s statistics in relation to Bode in THIS circumstance mean nothing.  How many times has Baffert had to bring a lightly raced horse with no 2yo foundation back on three weeks rest off a huge effort to win the Kentucky Derby.  The answer is likely NEVER.  Since that is the case, his stats mean nothing.

[dlf]

Hi Jim:
On one level, I agree with much of what you have to say on Bodemeister. I used Thoro-Pattern, rather than Baffert\'s trainer stats, to do my analysis, as it definitely seems relevant (that is, 3 fairly recent races) in this instance.
Looking at Thoro-Pattern, Bode has a 64% chance of pairing or running a new top. And if he pairs or runs a new top, I would think that would make him at least 80% likely to win the race, especially (as you noted) considering his running style. Combining those two elements (64% x 80%), Bode is 50% to win the Derby, which makes his fair value somewhere around 2-1! And that\'s not even factoring in the small possibility he wins with an \'off\' TG fig.

So all of that looks great for Bode. But then I decided to look at the 10 year history of horses who had run very fast tops in their final Derby preps. I set the cutoff for \'very fast\' at TG 1, somewhat arbitrarily, but it seemed like a reasonable benchmark.  From this perspective, things don\'t look so good for Bode, and they really don\'t look so good for Baffert:

2002-2011 Horses Running New Tops of 1 or Faster in Their Final Derby Prep (Final Derby Prep TG # ----> Derby TG#):

New Top in the Derby:
Big Brown  Neg 3.5 --->  Neg 4.75

Pair in the Derby:  
Circular Quay  Neg 1 ---> -0.25
Lion Heart   Neg 1 ---> 0
(Note: both of these were just shy of being \'Offs\')

Off in the Derby:
Musket Man  Neg 0.75 ---> 1.75
Papa Clem 0.25 ---> 1.75
Summer Bird 1 --->2.75
Tale of Ekati 0.5 ---> 3
Buddy Gil 0.5 ---> 4

X in the Derby:
Arch Arch Arch 1 ---> 9
American Lion 0.75 ---> 7.25
West Side Bernie 0.25 ---> 6
Desert Party 1 ---> 7.5
Z Fortune 0.75 ---> 6
Smooth Air 0.5 ---> 7
Gayego 0.25 ---> 13.25
Sweet Northern Saint  -1.25 ---> 4.25
Point Determined 1 ---> 6 (Baffert)
Sinister Minister   Neg 4.5 ---> 11.5 (Baffert)
Bob and John 0.5 ---> 12 (Baffert)
Afleet Alex   Neg 2 ---> 2.5
Bellamy Road   Neg 5 ---> 4.25
Greeleys Galaxy   Neg 2 ---> 3.75
Bandini   Neg 3.25 ---> 17.75
Cliff\'s Edge Neg 1 ---> 3.25
Indian Express  1 ---> 10.75 (Baffert)

Now we know that most horses go backwards in the Derby, anyway, so maybe we shouldn\'t read too much into this. But I think it would be a mistake to assume that Bode can win the Derby going backward. Some horse is bound to jump up, and Bode, if he does go backward, doesn\'t have the same margin of error that Big Brown had. Perhaps more importantly, Baffert has yet to show he can win the Derby with a horse coming in off a new top. Point Given, Indian Charlie (both favorites), Point Determined, Sinister Minister, Bob and John, and Indian Express all came into the Derby off of new tops for Baffert, and all went backward. On the other hand, his 3 Derby winners have all come in off of pairs in their final preps. Pioneer of the Nile also came in off a pair. (Congaree did come in off a slight new top of 1.25 and did pair it up with a good 3rd place Derby finish)
Furthermore, most of us on this board are presumably betting exotics in the Derby. Although your 2010 Super Saver score showed that you can win a lot of money even with one of the favorites on top, the chances of a big payout obviously increase quite a bit if you can get a double digit horse on top. Which brings me to....
Hansen. I\'m inclined to forgive his \'bounce\' in the Blue Grass. If he is a better horse on dirt, the regression doesn\'t look as bad. Maybe there was even some intent on Maker\'s part there. I also read (but did not verify) that the 1:35 and change mile he put up to open the Blue Grass was the fastest opening mile of the meet, even including Wise Dan\'s Ben Ali. He showed in the Gotham that he can rate and finish effectively. I\'m counting on him to come back to his Gotham figure, get a fairly clean stalking trip, and to be a factor in deep stretch. I don\'t know if he has the stamina to go 1 1/4, but at 10 or 12-1, I\'m willing to find out, and will almost certainly key him in the tri and super. I also think the speed horses tend to be overlaid in the Derby, as the conventional wisdom generally assumes a pace meltdown.
So, I\'ll run a small portion of my bankroll through Bode on top, but it will not be my primary play.
Good Luck.

[toppled]

There\'s another part of Bodemeister that the sheets don\'t cover-he\'s a front runner who will not be on the lead in this race, and if for some reason he is on the lead, he\'s going to be cooked by the top of the stretch.  Bodemeister\'s got 2 strikes against him that have me questioning whether a bad race is a bounce: 1) As I mentioned, if the pace is too hot, he\'s not going to finish well if he\'s on or near the lead. 2) If they take him back, how will he like or dislike rating?  I never like to bet a horse who has shown that he wants the lead and the plan is to take back.

A few years ago Bellamy Road was coming off a huge number in the Wood.  I tossed him in the Derby (by the way, it didn\'t help me get the winner) not so much because I was afraid of him bouncing, but I figured the pace of the race would negate his ability to run his race. It really didn\'t matter if he was going to bounce or not, the pace would make it impossible to run a number anywhere near his Wood figure.  So, if the pace hinders Bodemeister\'s ability to run his race because he either runs too fast early or responds poorly to rating, is it really a bounce, and does it really matter-he can\'t win unless all the other speeds get bad posts or break poorly.

So, what am I looking for?  I\'m looking for a horse who has already shown a comfort level with rating and has multiple races in the 2-3 range where if the race goes 2 he\'s still a contender and at the same time a slight forward move to 1 or 0 would not be out of his range of improvement.  The horses who fit this category are Gemologist, Union Rags, Take Charge Indy and El Padrino. As you know, 3 of them are in the 2 range and 1 is in the 3 range. The problem is, there are 5 horses in here with better 1 time tops (Trinniberg\'s pair in sprints included in the 5). So, my only hope in this race is to play these 4 and some of the others in doubles & hope I\'m right in the Oaks.

Ironically, the filly I think is a standout in the Oaks, who I will be singling in the multiple doubles, has a bigger jump up number than Bode & I could have posted a similar post about On Fire Baby to what you\'ve posted above.  She had a 5.75 jump compared with Bode\'s 2.5 jump, but she has a lot more spacing than Bode\'s 3 weeks, jumped up 1st time lasix and has been working great for the Oaks.  Off new tops of at least 1 point, Hartlage is 20% top, 28% pair, 23% off and 29% X, not much different than Baffert has with Bode, but I don\'t think she will be a pace victim.

[Gerard]

Since the post is does Bode bounce or not, we won\'t get into the question of fair value. A lot of people do great work on this board with the comparisons and studies of previous runnings. Unfortunately, I defer to Mark Twain when it comes to statistics. This is an ultra simplification, but I highly doubt Baffert is sending this horse with this NAME to Churchill less than fully cranked for his best. The blinks off in Arkansas had a lot to do with that top, and they\'ll be off again. If he goes out in 109 or 110 and change with Trinni, I\'ll turn in my keyboard.

[Caradoc]

Jim: DLF covered most of the ground I would have.  If 1 or so is the stopping point for these horses in the post-2008 era, then the right bet is for Bode to go back by at least a couple of points.  Of course, that means you cannot confidently throw him out.

Just a couple other thoughts.  I agree with you about CC but for other reasons, some of which Miff identified in a post earlier this  week, but which go far beyond his trainer\'s indecision about blinkers.  You could question whether that horse has been handled all along with the idea of having him ready to give his best in the Classics.  CC is an early developer no matter what his pedigree is.  He was being pushed very hard when I saw him train last summer in Del Mar, and that was nine months ago.  (Quick quiz: The date is August 10, 2011, and one hopeful for the 2012 Kentucky Derby has already run a TG number of 6 twice, and it isn\'t Union Rags; who is it?  You get the point.) Hansen is a more difficult call for me, and among the reasons is the poly prep.  I can\'t conclude that he is as good on poly as on dirt; I don\'t see him being able to run the Gotham number in early March on poly, and if so it indicates he has a preference for dirt. So the backward move in the Blue Grass has to be interpreted in that light.  On top of that, prepping on the poly (or turf) is not a bad angle for a Derby horse; those horses are less likely as a group to run poorly in the Derby.  Maybe he doesn\'t get back to the top but even a couple of points off makes him a contender.

Peter

[Silver Charm]

Baffert worked Point Given in 1:10 and change on Monday before the race. Baffert worked Bode in a minute and change last week with a quick shut down after they hit the wire.

One thing about Baffert is he is very smart and will adjust his approach based on his.previous experiences.

Toss this  horse at 11/2 - 1 at your own peril....

[PatrickM]

Midnight Interlude.

[JR]

He regressed 1 pt on 28 days rest after his 2 top. He\'s now going on 21 days rest after a neg top. My bets another small regression in the 1 range which could still be good enough to win. Union Rags could easily lose this race the same way he lost the BC Juvenile. Widest and fastest.

[Rick B.]

Silver Charm Wrote:
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> Toss this  horse at 11/2 - 1 at your own peril....

The Kentucky Derby is my Christmas. I want a Ferrari...not wool socks. A $13 horse in a 20 horse field with SO many other good horses at generous odds = wool socks with holes in the heels.

Kidding aside -- any way I look at this, Bodemeister is a likely underlay next Saturday; I couldn\'t use him on top even if I didn\'t think he will bounce to the moon.

The Derby is the seasoned horseplayer\'s chance to swing for the fences, not bunt for a hit. Come on batter, swing!

[ajkreider]

Agree completely.  What I\'m looking for is reason to toss bode altogether.  But, it looks like he put in a good work today. Last quarter in 23.2, with a very strong gallop out.

[Wrongly]

One other thing to consider is track condition.  Last night the racetrack appeared to be speed favoring until the monsoon hit before the 5th race.  Track became sloppy following the hail and rain and appeared to favor closers.  When that track becomes wet and cuppy it becomes extremely taxing.  Doubt any of those on or near the pace could come home under those conditions.

[ajkreider]

Baffert seemed to suggest just the opposite sentiment today.  Said he\'s wished he\'d waited until today for Eden\'s Moon\'s work, as the track yesterday (dry) was so deep and taxing.

[gteasy]

Excellent analysis...you are preaching to the choir...I like Makers\' \"plan\".

[alm]

ajkreider Wrote:
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> Baffert seemed to suggest just the opposite
> sentiment today.  Said he\'s wished he\'d waited
> until today for Eden\'s Moon\'s work, as the track
> yesterday (dry) was so deep and taxing.


Guys, I can\'t explain why Baffert would say this or that, but I have watched Churchill for decades and Wrongly is rightly in this case.  I can only remember one horse who took them all the way around two turns on a wet track in the Derby, Go For Gin, and many who closed deep to win and that sucker Mine That Bird comes to mind first.  But I am not just talking about the Derby.  We\'ve seen that in all levels of races.  If it rains, the speed stops around two turns.  

Somebody else on this thread explained that Bode shut down at the wire in his work...did you mean his previous work?  He didn\'t shut down in the most recent one.  That was of real interest to me, as my recollection of Baffert\'s Derby works with lots of entries called for a fast 5f followed by a moderate 5f work, a week before.  He actually asked Bode for the opposite this time.  Which means one thing to me: he feels the horse NEEDS it.  And I don\'t take that as a positive sign.