Any opinions on El Padrino?

[drshillito]

Does anybody here have any sentiment toward El Padrino, especially in light of the pedestrian workout today in south Florida?  David Grening of the drf believes the horse hasn\'t looked right since his Risen Star Stakes triumph and today\'s :53 and change performance did nothing to change his mind.

I was excited when El Padrino\'s sheet first came out last week.  He is obviously fast enough to be a contender in this race with the number in the last 3 spots and in reality, he doesn\'t have to improve all that much to win this thing, especially with a ground saving trip.

He is eerily similar to two other noted Pletcher board bombs with Invisible Ink in 2000 and Bluegrass Cat in 2006.  Both horses rebounded in the Derby at monster mutuels off subpar performances in the Bluegrass Stakes, while proving in prior starts that they were fast enough to figure in the end.  I think El Padrino fits that mold and I was planning on keying the horse 1-2-3 in my trifecta wagers.

I was curious as to you guys\' thoughts on this one and how you plan to use/not use this one in your exotic wagers.  Is he a toss or should we T.I.T. (Trust in Todd?)

[phil23]

I think the jocks on both EP and WINDSURFER (who he worked with) had been told by Todd to not do too much and with the bad track condition just were a little too cautious.  I\'d imagine it\'s harder to gauge how fast you\'re going if the track is a sea of slop.  TAP like Frankel in that the real hard workout is always 2 weeks out, not 1.  

So long as he makes the gate (TAP will scratch him if he is not right), this horse is THE value of the race.  Exactly as fast as Union Rags and will go off 4 times the price (5:1 vs 20+:1).  Has had 3 starts vs the optimal 2 this year, but has also had 5 long weeks to recover.  This is a good bet.

[aceriley63]

I really like this guy underneath and maybe even as a longshot winner with the number power.  I really like that Bejarano rides, he\'s due to hit the board in the Derby. Good post draw, and he\'s definitely on my tickets.

[FrankD.]

Not a big fan of trust in Todd more like trust in Allday or the magical waters of that training facility.

Anyway; I feel El Padrino is a must use in the equation, he was a toss in FL Derby as he went beyond his projected X to a non effort. Anytime you get 20/1 on horse that if he merely pairs a previous top he is a must use and he will be running at the end when many are stopping.

It\'s UR, Bode & Gem I\'m not sure what to do with? UR and Bode are must uses on top but as previously discussed with MJ do you really want a ticket with those 2 running 1&2? So for horizontal plays they must be used and El Padrino being keyed in exactas, tri\'s & super\'s will provide the value.

[big18741]

I don\'t see him moving forward but a ground saving pair might get him a piece of this.

[boston]

El Padrino is the most likely winner, and still 20-1 in LV.  

Todd stated after yesterday\'s slow work, \"Iwas not looking for a fast work.  Both horses worked strong five furlongs that day (4-20-12), with Gemologist galloping out a mile in 1:42 and El Padrino galloping out a mile in 1:41.\"

From drf.com on 4-20-12.

El Padrino (five furlongs in 1:00.48): The last-minute change in schedule brought the Risen Star winner back just five days since his previous work over the local surface on Sunday.

El Padrino was paired up with Pletcher’s horse Hudson Steele, a turf stakes winner at 3 but idle nearly a year. With regular exercise rider Isabelle Bourez aboard El Padrino, the team came away a little slower than the previous set, posting a 25.32 first quarter before picking up the pace approaching the stretch to  complete three-eighths in 36.82. El Padrino had to be urged slightly to keep up with Hudson Steele nearing the wire, finishing about a head behind but after a final quarter-mile in a sharp 23.66. The duo continued on very willingly into the turn, galloping out six furlongs in 1:13.34 and pulling up seven-eighths in 1:26.73.        

Although El Padrino struggled a bit at the end to keep pace with his older mate, the fact he was able to come home his final three-eighths in 35.16 and continue out strongly into and around the turn was encouraging and an improvement over his final Florida Derby work as well as his first post-race breeze here last Sunday in company with Travers winner Stay Thirsty.    

Trainer Todd Pletcher said afterward he was pleased with both works, especially “the way El Padrino got a good, strong gallop-out.”

[MonmouthGuy]

I like El Padrino\'s sheet but I am always wary of \"trainerspeak\" leading into the KD.

It\'s uncanny how they all get exactly what they want out of the final pre-Derby work. Hard to put a shine on 4F in 53 and change for a horse who is supposed to relish the slop.

[JR]

And Hudson Steele just shipped down here to take our little turf stake probably running in the 3 range.

[JR]

\"What is time?\"

[miff]

El Padrino working like an elephant since FG race. Last fig not nearly indicative of how poorly he ran in the F Derby. Previous two races legit, a wet track makes him a use.

Strange no none likes TCI who did whatever running there was in the FD while EP was grinding outside going nowhere.


Mike

[FrankD.]

Hey Mike,

I can see TCI as an underneath use with Calvin getting a trip. I banged him in a exacta with UR in the FD OUCH!!!!!! A slow race for the track that day as you know, slow figure and he had it all his own way so nowhere near as impressive as he looked.

I\'ll send you a peronal message on the Ark Derby, now that is a real puzzle to me as for what to do with Bode?

Frank D.

[miff]

Hi Frank D,(Please advise expected weather, forecast murky)

For Baffy to work Bode 59 change and continue out to a mile in like 1:40 may signal that Baffy is sensing Bode to be too full of himself.Someone suggested Baffy trying to play catch up, seriously?? Horse has more current racing bottom than any in here.

Bode the key Saturday,much faster on pure speed figs(vs performance figs) but dynamics of the race cloudy now.Post position draw is important, like every year.

Good luck

Mike

[Wrongly]

Weather forecast has improved greatly only 20% chance of rain and highs around 85.  Still it was rather nice Saturday night until the monsoon struck - Storm

[JR]

EP runs a full point faster than TCI and he\'s going nowhere while TCI was doing the only running? Explain.