What do I like about the race?

[HP]

Did not watch the seminar.  I really think we have to see how the track is playing to make final decisions, but I feel pretty close.

What\'s good about this Derby?  

There are years where a horse or two really stands out.  This year, I see about 11 horses where I would not be SHOCKED if they won.  I don\'t want to post about specific figures but there are two horses here that have run the best figs, but about 9 others are within two points.  

Looking at the shortest priced horses first, I don\'t see any slam dunks and furthermore I don\'t see any reason to take them over the longshots I like.  

I think Union Rags is the most likely short priced horse to move up.  However, he could move up and still be out of the tri.  He ran a lot better than Hansen in the Juvi and still lost.  He managed to get bottled up and uncomfortable in the Florida Derby, which was a much smaller field.  He probably would\'ve been better off outside.  To me he just offers no value at all, talent notwithstanding.

Bodemeister looks likely to back up here as per other Baffert horses coming into the race off big efforts.  Looked great beating nothing.  He\'s going to be eye to eye with some of these in here.  No value.  

I don\'t think Creative Cause will be 3rd choice in the betting.  No problem tossing him off last.  

Hansen is another who will take money and may be compromised by the pace.  Not sure that Blue Grass helped him.  He wasn\'t \"cranked\" to win but he flew in that race?  And he had his own way and still got run down.  Doesn\'t look like a horse who is going to get better stretching out.  

I think this will be a competitive race and has the potential to collapse and maybe some real chaos with trips.  So why take short prices on these horses above?  If they beat me in any combination the prices will not be great.  Here are the horses that look like real value and have some shot at winning.  

Take Charge Indy
Dullahan
Daddy Nose Best
Prospective
Gemologist
Went the Day Well

Six horses is not actually too bad for spreading out in the Derby, and given the odds this is the path I will probably take.  Playing these in exactas and tris.  Just have to figure out how to weight a few of them, and that will be game day decision.  

Good luck to all.  HP

[miff]

JB,

So, you mentioned an interesting race shape in the Derby, which seems pretty vanilla to me, except if you mean that TCI is faster early than Bode, he\'s not.TG Race shapes calculations for Cali, like whole TG numbers for Cali on the slow side vs other solid data, as you know, so it fits on TG Cali profile.

On that note,in the OAKS, can I get any amount down on Edens Moon not being 13th after a quarter as race shapes indicates, serious.

Oaks/Derby write up very sheet oriented as expected,credible if you follow that line.

Mike

[Michael D.]

In case it rains -

Bode probably won\'t mind slop. sire Empire Maker won the Wood and Belmont over off tracks and has In Reality on top and bottom. Baffert\'s only good showing in this race over the past 10 years was with an Empire Maker colt, in the slop (3 pt top). Bode\'s running style huge if wet. other colt dangerous over slop is TCI, who has great mud breeding and the running style and jock to avoid most of the flying mud. El Pad likes it wet, but trip will be an issue as Pletcher has said he wants the colt to come from behind.

difficult to know how Union Rags will respond if it\'s muddy or sloppy. has run well in the past, but might take mud if tucked in behind the top tier. and Dull could take a ton of mud with his running style.

[HP]

Definitely game day decisions to be made.  Especially if it\'s standing water vs. drying out.  

Michael - looks like Hansen wouldn\'t mind a wet track?  and El Pad as per one of our posters \"working like an elephant.\"  thoughts?  

HP

[Michael D.]

yeah, Hansen has the right running style for an off track. I\'ll excuse the GP race with the crazy early fractions.  I believe Dominguez will rate a length or two off the pace 3w. should avoid most of the flying mud. wet fast would probably be ideal.

[toppled]

I looked over the Oaks and Derby write ups and while I was mostly in agreement with Jerry on the Derby, I am going against his advice in the Oaks.  I know that I\'m doing so at my own peril since I have his most likely winner as a toss on pace & my most likely winner he has as a toss on sheet and training pattern.  The good news is that I\'m saving with the Oaks value horse who I\'ve had no worse than 2nd, so as long as Jerry isn\'t completely correct on the most probables, I\'ve got a shot that we both could be cashing.

[TGJB]

Miff-- so how have the Cali shippers into NY been doing? You know, the ones that are faster on \"solid data\", and have been going off short prices here?

[miff]

JB,

Not the question I posed on race shapes. You have selective memory referring to several Cali shippers recently sent to NY by Valente/Barber,know all about their poor performances.

\"Slow\" California shippers to NY show forward moves over years, run lotsa new tops on TG but only pairs on Beyer/Rags.Thats been well documented, you may want to check that.

Mike

[TGJB]

You know what? If you remind me next week when I have time we\'ll put together sheets on all the ones that have run in both Cali and NY over the last 4 months. We\'ll get to see who has selective memory.

[miff]

Whoa, talking years and not synth/dirt move ups either.Baffert alone shipped to Sunland and OP this past few months.I think a horse named Bodemeister was one of them.

[TGJB]

See, now THAT would be an example of selective memory. What possible other explanation could there be for one horse getting a faster figure? I guess Bodie\'s earlier races were just as fast as his OP race.

What we\'ll do is look dirt/dirt, using the ones that have run Socal and NY since December. I guess you already know how bad this is going to be. I think every single one was favored first time here (and weren\'t fast on our stuff, as you probably saw). Any of them win? I\'m guessing ROI of less than 20 cents on the dollar.

[miff]

JB,

I\'ve been tracking TG figs for Cali shippers for YEARS.What happened from Dec till now with short prices Cali shippers is not representative of what the \"whole\" of Cali shippers run, TG fig wise, when they ship for many moons.Many Cali shippers suddenly get faster TG figs or run tops while looking on the slow side going in.

Recent ROI at Aqueduct relative to 5-6 Cali shippers is irrelevant(esp if the just x\'d) in evaluating why horses with slowish Cali figs ship all over and run faster TG Figs but not faster Beyers/Rags.

I believe(may be wrong) that you or Alan posted that TG is rated slower than Rags/Beyer converted in Cali which may be a clue as to why.

And while you may mock Beyer/Rags as being \"reliable data\", I assure you that $$millions pour through the windows every day from gamblers using them.

Mike

[TGJB]

Mike-- I\'m staring at the track-to-track for Santa Anita. Starting 1/1/11 through 4/23/12 there have been 779 horses that ran on dirt there and also ran on dirt at another track. They average 1/4 point faster figures at the other tracks. The median (often more useful) is less, just a 1/10th of a point difference. As for NYRA tracks, there have been 45, and the SA horses actually got slightly BETTER figures in California than here.

[miff]

JB,

I\'ll save you the trouble. I have tracked all Cali shippers to NY and other MAJOR venues, not all venues. Most of the runners are stakes(about 200 since 2005) types that I tracked. I plotted every one of them against the best conversion formula on the planet.The problem that I initially discovered was greatly exacerbated when synths were installed in Cali. The numbers were off the wall, speaking conversion.

Incidentally,the conversion is always Beyer(adjusted) to TG to Rags.All conversions for all tracks(not just CALI)perfectly convert(BEYER/TG/RAGS) 84% 0f the time.

In Cali conversions only, over 50% of the runners ran a TG top but only paired Beyer/RAGS.Won\'t post the data but will send it to you if you wish.I gamble off  the horses that were converted and KNOW the results.


Mike

[TGJB]

Mike-- You need to listen better. There is no conversion necessary-- these are the actual figures. They measure dirt to dirt only. They answer the exact question we\'re discussing-- no conversions, no \"some synth\". The study you are discussing is a hodge-podge if it has some synth/dirt-- part of what it then measures is THAT, not the circuits.