Pace of the KY Derby

[MO]

The thing that bothers me about TCI is that he had an opportunity at CD on the rail in the BCJ and he showed nothing running behind Hansen. I think he may be the type that excells in Florida.

What are the odds of Borail winning 4 Derbies in 6 years? Astronomical.

The thing that bothers me about Union Rags is that he hasn\'t developed,he figures to get into a traffic jam, and he\'s by Dixie Union. If anyone is not gonna get a mile and a quarter its him.

The thing that bothers me about Hansen: all the doubters....

[mjellish]

Hi Mo,

Have you seen UR?  He may be a Dixie Union, but he looks nothing like a Dixie Union.  He\'s got a lot of distance breeding in his female line, and Dixie is sort of distance neutral anyway.  Wheras Hansen looks just like his sire, Tapit (also a distance neutral sire) but comes from a female line that lacks distance.  So I don\'t get your argument here.  If either of these would be more of the miler type, by breeding, it would definately be Hansen.

[MO]

hi mjellish,,

It\'s the Derby, a guessing game when it comes to \"can they get the distance\".

The TG sire index is interesting, perhaps I am misinterpreting it?

Dixie Union at over 1 mile - 12.3  less than a mile - 11.
Tapit at over a mile - 11. less than a mile 12.

seems to me Tapit\'s have a better shot at getting a mile and a quarter than Dixie Union\'s.

[HP]

There is a big headache here because there is an hour and a half break before the Derby, and who knows what they are going to do to the track if it rains, etc.  My feeling is there will be a quick pace, and when it\'s around 46 or so for a half I\'m looking for a stalk/closer to win.  

Lots of times in big races I think everybody is holding back a little and afraid to commit?  But here I think once one goes, they will battle each other.  Hansen will not rate kindly.  Trinni is not going to sit behind anyone.  I don\'t see a War Emblem-type Derby here.  They will go.  

For Bor-ail fans what happens if there\'s a dead rail?  Distinct possibility.  As Yogi Berra said you can observe a lot by watching and that\'s going to be big this year.  But even if you watch you could see a radical change between early dirt races and the Derby.  

Right now my bet is the frontrunners fold and my money comes winging in late or from mid pack.  

HP

[modpirate]

phil23 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yep, I kind of feel insane even suggesting it.
> Just getting freaked out by what his price could
> be.


Don\'t feel to crazy. A friend and I each make a superfecta bet every year, and then we split the winnings when we hit.  Well this year he has Trinni on his ticket because of the odds. It is completely silly, but it was his ticket that hit last year so I\'m not going to judge. :-)

[mjellish]

I agree completely.  I also get your take on the sire stats.  But Tapit isn\'t exactly a classic distance sire, although he may be marginally better than Dixie Union.  I know everyone talks about sire stats, but I think you have to look at the dam side.  It\'s half the genes, so it has to matter.  UR has distance and class all over his dam side, whereas Hansen has sprinter and claimer all over his dam side.  And, if you put all the breeding aside and just look at these two horses, no way you come out saying UR looks like Dixie or a sprinter.  He looks more like a big, powerful Nijinsky / Northern Dancer type.  Even sweats like them.

[MO]

I also agree on UR\'s appearance - but for me that\'s a double edged sword given his draw. Big horses need room to run and are often times better served by running wide. His FL Derby looked better than it was because he rebroke. But, there is gonna be a lot more traffic to navigate on Sat than he had to in FL, while Hansen should get a clean trip.

Maker has been trying to harness this guys speed. His work the other day was visually impressive where the first 2/3 of the work he was alone and then the last part he engaged a workmate and rebroke and outfinished that one. He has also been quoted saying he\'d love Bode and Trinni dueling with Hansen about 8 or 10 lengths back in 3rd or 4th. That tells me there going to shoot for a 1st quarter in 23 and change or 24 - then step on the gas. And if he finds himself alone on the lead in 23 and change, it\'s Spend a Buck all over again as speed unchallanged invariably wins.

So while it\'s still no guarantee he\'ll win, Hansen has so many advantages over these horses going into the race including a win over the track - over most of these same horses that it\'s hard to bet against him at 10-1, while at the same time I can\'t bet another horse with any confidence, except Gemologist and he\'ll be 9-2 by the time they hit the far turn. No value there. No value in UR or Bode as co favs. Borail is gonna kill the price on TCI and Dullahan is going to take a lot of money. El Padrino supposedly looks like shit appearancewise on the track, now what, go fishing for a longshot? Daddy Knows Best? I keep coming back to the champ at 10-1.

[mjellish]

Can\'t argue with just about everything you said.  I guess what it comes down to is what you feel fair odds are on HAN to win.  For me that\'s easy.  I would need to see about 20-1 to feel I was getting in the ballpark.  And I like the colt.  For what it\'s worth he\'s the only bet I cashed on sat BC Day as I got roughed up pretty bad.  But I don\'t like him here.  Although with the right fractions, he is gutty enough to maybe hold on for a piece IMO.  So he\'s tough to toss.  

You have to like a colt who tries hard everytime. GL and if it turns out you are right hopefully you cash a big one.

[MO]

I must admit I\'m not going to load up on this horse as originally planned thanks to the comments and insight of many of the posters here, none more influential than TGJB. I see why he thinks Hansen is \"shaky\". Maybe it\'s a good thing I\'m in a slump at the poker tables and don\'t have as much to gamble with this week. LOL.

Best of luck to you too!

[Rich Curtis]

MO wrote:

\"speed unchallanged invariably wins.\"

 If it\'s unchallenged all the way to the finish line, yes, it invariably wins.

[TGJB]

Curtis-- nice.