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Author Topic: Juanita  (Read 799 times)

TGJB

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Juanita
« on: May 04, 2012, 12:37:31 PM »
First of all, this means I\'m not gonna have people screaming about the analysis today no matter what.

Second, I\'m live with a pretty big spread pick 6 ticket.

Third, this race has big ramifications regarding things to watch and think about--

Rail?

Baffert off a big effort on 3 weeks?

Maker horse running big...
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TGJB

JoseOcon

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Re: Juanita
« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2012, 12:41:07 PM »
Hi,

I like to do my own handicap, today I decided to play a few from TG Churchill Analysis...

I did a good bet on the very nice Juanita filly

Good Start!
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sekrah

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Re: Juanita
« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2012, 12:49:30 PM »
Jerry,

I had a big win bet lined up on Juanita.  The first horse just was entering the gate on my Twinspires feed, I clicked submit..  Locked out.  Choked off by lag.   I\'ve been busy kicking things over and throwing stuff for the past 15 minutes.
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TGJB

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Re: Juanita
« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2012, 12:58:52 PM »
Sekrah-- while I sympathize, there\'s a whole lot of time between races today and tomorrow, and the odds don\'t change that much. I\'ve been going in with 7-8 minutes to post.
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sekrah

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Re: Juanita
« Reply #4 on: May 04, 2012, 01:00:55 PM »
Now that the red in my eyes has disappeared.  Here\'s my thoughts on your assumptions.

1. PP figured to bounce.  The jury is still out on the rail.  I don\'t think this race would disqualify it

2. Bode is extremely likely to regress IMO.

3. Maker could win his next 5 and I\'m still not betting Hansen to get 1 1/4.
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sekrah

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Re: Juanita
« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2012, 01:01:57 PM »
Yea, it was my fault.  Had some other things going on and didn\'t even get to look at the race until there was 7 or 8 minutes to post.
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TGJB

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Re: Juanita
« Reply #6 on: May 04, 2012, 01:07:02 PM »
Not assumptions. Questions and things to watch and think about. Certainly not clear about the rail.

By the way-- and I\'m posting this before the Baffert favorite in the 7th runs-- I just took a look at Baffert\'s ROI with different time between races. Very interesting, and not a small sample.
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sekrah

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Re: Juanita
« Reply #7 on: May 04, 2012, 01:08:24 PM »
Care to post the Baffert stuff on rest?

I think trainer rest off tops would be a great new stat.
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TGJB

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Re: Juanita
« Reply #8 on: May 04, 2012, 01:17:45 PM »
If you have Contested\'s sheet you have it. Basically goes 1.06, 1.49, 1.71, 2.00 as rest goes up.

That filly ran huge, might have gone negative. Possible the second filly paired the big # and got crushed.
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Wrongly

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Re: Juanita
« Reply #9 on: May 04, 2012, 01:28:47 PM »
Great number on Juanita, never would have had her without the sheets.  Nice hit.

Hoping to hit the $1 pk3 now alive with the 2,3,9,12 for $20.  Come on #9.
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