Did Bode Bounce?

[plasticman]

Mike Smith rode that race as if he knew the path he was in would be the best part of the track. Was there some type of \'track maintenance\' before the derby? They had 90 mins to play around out there.

I just needed another few feet to get Bode off the board, that would have been sweet and more lucrative for me...me yelling \"GO AWAY\" at the TV didnt prevent Bode from holding on for 2nd when he really had no business to be in the money considering the pace of the race.

[JR]

Seeing is believing.

[Perfect Drift]

IHA traveled 41 feet further than Bode and still beat him by 1 1/2 lengths.  Creative Cause traveled 29 more feet than IHA and was three lengths behind him... so IHA will have the best TG fig and CC will get a similar fig.  Bode will have no better than the third best fig, possibly the 4th best, depending on how much ground WTDW lost.

I guess the final pace number doesn\'t count for Bode?  Bottom line is he flew for six furlongs and WALKED for a half mile, period.  His internal fractions were 22.32, 23.07, 24.41, 25.39, 26.94... yes that\'s right, the final 1/4 mile was in 27 SECONDS.

If you\'re so sure about Bode being the Classic winner, I\'d go bet it right now in Vegas, he was 25-1 before the Derby.  I think you\'d be throwing your money away...

[analizethis]

The facts are that the runner with the best three year top has won twice in the last 10 years (Smarty Jones and Big Brown) which is the same as the one ranked 18th (Giacomo and Mine That Bird) or 11th (Animal Kingdom and Barbaro). The rest had a three year top ranked 10th, 4th, 5th and 6th. The #1 rank horse has also run 2rd twice, 3rd, 6th, 7th, 11th twice and 16th (the infamous Sinister Minister).

So I think it\'s a lot tougher than finding the one that has run the fastest.

[analizethis]

Yes it was an outstanding ride but it was made a little easier for him by the fact that Bodie went so fast that the field spread out and IHA was able to take a spot on the inside relative to his post pretty quickly. In a normal bunched up Derby field he would have to either be stuck outside (4 path?) or drop way back to get inside or use him more to be in a more forward position on the field.

Once we get final numbers I bet that this field had less lost ground than normal because of the fast pace.

[P-Dub]

dlf Wrote:
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> And while I\'m certainly glad that I didn\'t write
> that \'a 9-5 winner made my day\', the fact is that
> you could have played a Pick 3 using the 10
> fastest horses in the most chaotic and flukey race
> of the year, a very strong 9-5 single, and the
> three or four logical contenders in the finale,
> for a 100-1+ return, all while staying within
> reasonable confines of \'sheet theory\'.

There are any number of races that, after the fact, someone can structure a winning combination. If this solid single wasn\'t used this way by someone, it\'s not relevant.

Coming up with these plays under fire is what separates winning players and losing players. I have a buddy that finds logical, winning bets after every race. If only he found them a bit earlier.

In no way am I suggesting you don\'t win or aren\'t a fine handicapper. I just think finding winning combinations after the fact is pointless, unless you file it away for the next time.

[sighthound]

It poured on that track the night before.  Tracks drain to the inside.  They dry out (underneath, next to the base) during the day.  Inside last.  

I think Bode could have won had he drifted out to the 3-4 path in the stretch, rather than staying on the inside.

[jumpnthefire]

jeez im sorry for the original  thread....i was greatfull and honest granted it wasnt a reach to play and no i was not redboarding

[mjellish]

Perfect D

I guess u and I see this differently.  Your statement about the closing fractions is a fair one.  But who passed Bode?  Exactly one horse, when half the field should have.

Imo the fact that the front runners did so well on All Dirt CD races that day is the only saving grace the stretch runners get.  Dead speed backed up in the sat races, but no one passed anyone.  

The fact that Bode wasn\'t dead speed is what matters.  

For all I know he\'s fried now.  But that was an incredible effort.  If he trains well and holds his weight I would bet him back in the right situation with both fists.

[JR]

Wasn\'t my comment. Not sure who you meant to direct your post to.

[mjellish]

Sorry.  I corrected.

[Caradoc]

\"IHA traveled 41 feet further than Bode and still beat him by 1 1/2 lengths. Creative Cause traveled 29 more feet than IHA and was three lengths behind him... so IHA will have the best TG fig and CC will get a similar fig. Bode will have no better than the third best fig, possibly the 4th best, depending on how much ground WTDW lost.\"

PD:
 
The Trakus data has WTDW travelling 4 feet fewer than IHA.  It also has IHA finishing 1 length ahead of Bode, and CC finishing 2 1/2 lengths behind IHA.  
If the Trakus data is used, then Bode will be lucky to get the 6th best number in the race, assuming of course, that the TG ground will agree with the Trakus measurements.  I\'m willing to bet that there will be differences, however, as there was for last year\'s Kentucky Derby, and as there was for this year\'s Florida Derby as well as for this year\'s Blue Grass. The differences in some cases are really significant.

[Michael D.]

He ran slower than Liaison, so he certainly didn\'t go forward.

[alm]

miff Wrote:
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> \"I dunno what Bode\'s sheet is going to look like\"
>
>
> MJ,
>
> I\'ll take a swing. How about 0 2 (X impending)
> Could anything be less represesntative or more
> misleading?
>
> Mike

Doesn\'t the response to this idea about the pattern depend upon whether or not you believe the TG numbers going into the race?  Do those numbers square with the complete  outcome of the race?  Not just the outcome of the first two finishers?  I think not.  Some horses regressed who figured to go forward...what\'s that about?  Did they all get hurt?  Or were the numbers off base to begin with?  Mike, what about your posts regarding the problems with West Coast TG numbers?  If I accepted what you posted ahead of the Derby, I would have been far more likely to have had the exacta, no?

[miff]

Al,

As you know, figures are not science and after the race, you can back into almost any theory.On the West Coast TG runners, it is my opinion that some numbers do not reflect the true ability of the horses vs similar runners at other venues.Not that relevant when they race amongst themselves in California,when they ship east,have found another story with quite a few,not all.

As an example,converted,Bodes last three looked like TG -1.5 TG 3/4 and TG 1/2(and yes the horses behind were adjusted in conversion)Had him laying over,gambled accordingly and lost.

Confirmed in my mind and on the racetrack that he was much the fastest going in and coming out.Being correct and tearing is no consolation in this game but going forward maybe better dynamics gets the money.

As far as the numbers being wrong, I say no but the methodology has serious issues on days like Fri and Sat.The final TG derby figs are sure to show at least two horses that did little running in far superior paths,\"faster\" than Bode.... not even close to being representative on what happened on the racetrack.


Mike