Did Bode Bounce?

[Silver Charm]

I will be surprised if it was much. If anything it might be more based on \"pace\".

[HP]

Whether he bounced or not...that was an amazing performance.  When I saw the splits go up, I said \"yessssss!,\" thinking he would be toast at the end.  Horses aren\'t supposed to be able to do that.  It helped him a little that Hansen didn\'t show up and add pressure, but hats off to Bodemeister...really extraordinary.  HP

[Silver Charm]

And when he turned for home and opened up I said Spend a Buc!! But not to be.

Fast and talented horse. I think the Apollo thing will be broken but it makes sense why its lasted so long.

[miff]

You have do drink lots of Kool Aid to call Bodes performance a bounce,ie, a performance adversely affected by a prior effort/efforts. It is not unreasonable to look at his derby as an equal performance notwithstanding what his figure will be.The dynamics of this race, more than anything,will cause the figure regression.


Derby winner received a weak fig like Beyer of 101(TG 1/2)Bode like a TG 1.5, a lesser fig for sure, a  lesser performance another story.

Mike

[HP]

A spectacular effort.  As a \"bounce\"...I don\'t know.  He certainly outran my expectations.  If he backed up a little on figs it\'s probably because he didn\'t lose any ground.  The time of the race looked respectable.  HP

[miff]

HP,

Agree,on the surface the raw time of the derby looked ok until you do the day.

The track speed came up way on the plus side and more so later.A 4 yr old filly, Groupie Doll, ran an incredible 7f in 1.20.2. Beyer settled on 112(Neg TG -5ish) That in spite of having the track speeding up. Groupie Doll outran some fast boys at the same distance a few races prior.GD carried more weight than the boys and was wide although that should be somewhat discounted, the outside being the better place to be Fri and Sat.Wide runners should be viewed as neutral instead of getting \"credit\" in their figs the way that surface played Fri/Sat.

Derby comes up weak on my scorecard, can\'t imagine it coming up fast.


Mike

[JR]

The bounce would be relative to his even more spectacular performance at OP. I think what impressed us in the derby were the raw fractional times (which we can\'t judge without context, ie. track speed) and our expectations for him to regress significantly, which I doubt he did.

[HP]

Having watched both races, the Derby performance is MUCH more impressive to me.  He beat nothing at OP.  In the Derby, he ran FAST and carried it to the finish line.  I don\'t need a whole lot of \"context\" to say that a horse running a 45 and change half mile and being right there at the finish ran an AWESOME race.  Maybe the most impressive Derby performance I\'ve seen.  

I don\'t get into the specifics of making the figures, one race vs. another, but I will say Groupie Doll is another who forgot to bounce.  

HP

[jimbo66]

HP,

You are certainly right about the \"bounce\".  Sheets theory took an awful hit on Derby day IMO.  Groupie Doll was certainly one that was to be \"played to bounce\"(I think TGJB mentioned it in the analysis, which I redboarded today).  Bodemeister was a \"play against\" in the Derby and the whole \"paired tops\" strategy turned out to be an awful result.  I won\'t redboard that, because as I listened to the seminar it made a lot of sense to me, but the fact is that the four horses coming in off that pattern ran DISGUSTING.  Not a step of running for El Padrino, Gemologist, Take Charge Indy and Union Rags.  I will give a mulligan to Union Rags for the despicable ride by the Frenchman, but that is it.  (No mulligan for the injury to Take Charge INdy, for the same reason that those playing horses to bounce who stumble out of the gate say that the stumble was due to the effort in the previous race.  (if the horse was ready to fire and was coming in off paired tops, he should be less likely to get hurt).  Pletcher horses were horrific.  The only thing more horrific than the Pletcher horses performances and the Frenhcman\'s ride are some of the posts on this board over the past 2 days. Past posting a million dollar win bet in the Derby?  REally?  And \"Thanks to Thorograph for making my day with that 9-5 shot in the 12th race?\"  When I read that one it reminded me of some of the \"shill posts\" I have seen on the Sheets board.  The reality is that it was not a good Derby for TG users and seminar users.  It happens.  

The real question becomes what to do in the Preakness.  Does Baffert really bring Bode back again?  Doesn\'t he HAVE to regress off another huge effort?  If he runs, he is CERTAINLY going to be the Preakness favorite.  What about the Derby winner?  He has certainly been handled like a fragile horse.  Not sure I would want him back in 2 weeks, although kudos to O\'Neill for backing off the horse after the February race and then having him ready to fire in the Derby.  For my money, the first two horses are the only horses that did any real running in the race.  Yes, the 3rd and 4th place finishers will get ground loss, solid figures.  However, off those fractions, horses are supposed to suck up at the end.  Bode ran a vicious pace, and only faded late, while the winner left the gate, got position and ran down the winner, refusing to get \"bottomed out\" chasing, like the other frontrunners did.  He ran a LEGIT race IMO.

I will be stubborn and will give Union Rags one more chance if/when he runs back in the Preakness or Belmont.  I hate to start giving multiple mulligans, but can\'t like the trip he got in either of his last two races.

Good luck,

JIm

[sighthound]

Bode was allegedly bouncing around his stall Sunday morning, feeling just fine.

I think Bode is one of the most impressive natural talents we\'ve seen in a long time.  My impression was he was just cruising those fast fractions, at his comfort level, with Smith having a light hold on him, his ears flicking back and forth.  Bode was asked at the head of the stretch, but when he was challenged at the 3/16, he came back, dug in and fought.  He lost, but he gave more.

This is a truly amazing horse.  

He has such a free running style, with his body just all elongated, his neck stuck out and extended, but still balanced.  Very weird, and not the typical \"Baffert\" style of horse at all.

[HP]

I don\'t know if sheets theory took such a big hit.  Before the race I thought there were about 10-11 horses that could win, and I\'m not SHOCKED by the result.  With a good trip, Bode figured to be right there even with a small regression.  I didn\'t play it that way simply because of all the other contenders that were better prices.  I probably spend more time on the Derby than other races (and wondering if that is such a great idea) but I don\'t see any \"sheet theories\" I have were not destroyed by the result.  If I think a short priced horse may bounce that\'s how I play it.  Works plenty.  Just not here.  

Plus I don\'t have enough info on Bodemeister to say he should\'ve bounced.  I THOUGHT he would, and even up to the mile I thought, \"great, he\'ll start backing up soon.\"  But beyond the three runners up it looked (literally) like most of the field hit the wall about a furlong out.  

I agree with Sight\'s points.  Horse is just special.  They aren\'t supposed to do what he did Saturday.  It happens.  

HP

[jimbo66]

HP,

Did you listen to the seminar?  the four horses that figured to run well all \"shit the bed\".  I would say that is a hit.

But that is just me.

Jim

[Rich Curtis]

Any theory that could take a \"hit\" in one race was not a theory worth thinking about in the first place.

 Really, Jimbo, would you make bets based on a theory that you feel is only one bad result away from being called into question?

[jimbo66]

Rich,

As I said, I can\'t \"redboard\" TGJB, as I thought the case he made for the four horses to run well was a good one.

The point I was making is that they all ran like mules.

It happens.  

I am not going to suddenly not believe that horses won\'t bounce.  

If the Derby were held tomorrow, I would probably bet Union Rags AGAIN.  (assuming Matz fired Leparoux)

I probably wouldn\'t have even made the comment except I was vomiting when I read \"Thanks Thorograph for that 9-5 shot in the 12th race\".  

The winner was a very tough read. As some of the posters who know me on this board are aware, I had a strong futures position on I\'ll Have Another in pool 1, as I thought he ran a GREAT race in February.  That said, off the Santa Anita Derby, where he won, but seemed to be being \"scrubbed on\" in the turn, I interpreted that win as a negative on Creative Cause and not a positive on I\'ll Have Another.  I tossed him from the top 2 slots in all my supers, despite thinking his February race was the 2nd best prep race (behind Bodemeister\'s Arkansas Derby).

IMO, he is a tough read in the PReakness as well.

[HP]

The Derby is a unique race.  It\'s nice to have the winner in the big one, but this year struck me as very contentious, and for the first time...ever...I was standing there with my money thinking I should pass.  It\'s a good idea to bet the Derby like every other race, but personally I can\'t do it.  If you can\'t narrow it down to less than 6-7 horses, give it a rest?  

They\'ve never gone that far and it\'s a fact that none of them have been in a 20 horse field and they will never be in a 20 horse field again.  I agreed on the horses JB figured to run well.  But again, I thought half the field had a shot.  

The figures measure how well the horses have run.  The winner had run well enough to win and so did the other horses in the tri.  I thought Gemologist was the most likely winner and looking back on it I\'m not seeing it differently.  When I saw the draw I thought Take Charge Indy moved up, and still do.  

Personally I put a lot of stock on the likely pace of the race and used horses I thought would be running late.  That\'s what I used to separate the half of the field that I thought had some shot at winning.  Did I think Bode would lead Trinni?  No.  Did I think he could run 45 and change and be there at the end?  Hell no.  Did I think shock wave therapy and the vet list was a good thing?  No.  

Lots of horses look good and don\'t fire for all kinds of reasons.  My only conclusion is that Bode was a lot better than I gave him credit for, given the entire history of horse racing.  Not really seeing it as a defeat for sheet theory or anything else.  

HP