Preakness time

[TGJB]

There was about 2 hours between the previous dirt race and the Preakness, and no dirt race after it, and with a bunch of horses (data points) to work with it didn\'t make any difference anyway, I was always doing the race the way I did. But for what it\'s worth, official time is about 4/5 too fast-- confirmed by multiple clockings.

BES and Preakness will be posted later today.

[Perfect Drift]

JB...does this mean you based your figs on a final time of 1:56:74?

This also means that Beyers for the race are about five points too high giving IHA and Bode a 104 instead of 109.

[TGJB]

It means I based the figures on the figure histories of the horses. As it happens it tied perfectly to the actual time, by which I mean using that time the variant for that race was the same as for the previous dirt race. I offer no opinion on what Andy did but he\'s not stupid or dogmatic.

[Dark Bay]

With the new time you may have Paynter running a better figure than IHA which would seem crazy based on the history of the horses beaten by Paynter. That is assuming no difference in the variant.   Am I off on that?

[TGJB]

Weight differential, for one thing...Paynter did not get as good a figure. Good, but not that good.

[miff]

\"JB...does this mean you based your figs on a final time of 1:56:74?

This also means that Beyers for the race are about five points too high giving IHA and Bode a 104 instead of 109\"


Perfect,

If Beyer discovered the time was actually 1.56.74, you can be fairly certain the figure for all would be reduced by the value of Beyer points for the corrected time.The only exception to that would be if they felt the surfaces slowed before the Preakness, difficult at best to confirm with no dirt races after the Preakness.Beyer rarely stray\'s from the track speed of the day in question.

Regardless of what TG or Beyer did time wise,Beyer 109 and TG neg-2 is very close to perfect agreement.edit: Raggie Richie tell me the Rags fig is 2.25,converted to TG, Neg -1.25, all kinda agree.


Mike

[TGJB]

On second thought...

Preakness official time is correct. Equibase got the runup at 30 feet, our guy got it at 32. Randy Moss saw the post, clocked the last few runnings himself from the gate and sent me an email telling me (nicely) that we were wrong about the time, so we went back to square one and checked everything. Turned out our guy and Equibase were both fooled by the 3/16 pole being set far inside the rail, almost on the grass course-- the perspective from the stands (and the pan shot) make the runup look shorter than it was. We raised the issue with Equibase, they are now calling it 55 feet.

As I said in my original post, with 2 hours since the previous dirt race and solid horses to work with I was always going to do it off the horses, and come up with the figures I did anyway. Does not affect the figure.