Jerardi piece in DRF

[TGJB]

I like Dick Jerardi. Having said that, there are some holes (ahem) in his piece (currently on DRF site) about Beyer figures being science, not opinion. About 20 comments follow the piece, all rips, and judging by some of the comments (none of which are mine), some of the writers have been on this site...

One thing that he does confirm is that Beyer is still using pars, which is interesting (and a big mistake).

[elkurzhal]

Doesn\'t add up with a Randy Moss interview from a couple weeks ago with Steve Byk.   He basicly said the start with the horses previous #\'s.  I don\'t think he mentioned \"par\" at all in answering \"how are beyers made?\".

[Kasept]

elkurzhal Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Doesn\'t add up with a Randy Moss interview from a
> couple weeks ago with Steve Byk.   He basicly said
> the start with the horses previous #\'s.  I don\'t
> think he mentioned \"par\" at all in answering \"how
> are beyers made?\".

Archive link to hear Randy Moss post-Derby: http://tinyurl.com/6mvjso4 (You can click forward to the second half hour with him once the file loads.)

I specifically asked him to address the Derby number which fig-bashers were attacking..

[bstaubs22]

May be it\'s just me, but I don\'t really get the explanation for how they come up with the variant. He says they use par times, recent beyers, and consider the reality?

[Boscar Obarra]

I thought it was explained clearly enough. Maybe folks that never made their own figs have a problem understanding how simple the process is. Simple, not easy.

 Someone ought to post Beyers worksheets for a day, so they can see how the cheese is made.

[bstaubs22]

That would be great if someone would do that. I have never made my own figs and I\'m sure it would be an excellent lesson for others like myself.

[Rich Curtis]

Steve,

  The next time you get one of the Beyer guys on your show, is there any way I can get you to ask him the following question?

 \"In an early book, Beyer describes the problem he was having with shrinking figures. His entire database was shrinking month to month, due to habitual faulty projections. Beyer recognized the problem and solved it by linking his entire database to par. However, when Beyer\'s figures later became public, Beyer supposedly de-linked them from par--in order to allow historical comparisons between horses. OK, when he did this, how did he prevent the problem of shrinking figures from returning?\"

[Kasept]

Rich Curtis Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Steve,
>
>   The next time you get one of the Beyer guys on
> your show, is there any way I can get you to ask
> him the following question?
>
>  \"In an early book, Beyer describes the problem he
> was having with shrinking figures. His entire
> database was shrinking month to month, due to
> habitual faulty projections. Beyer recognized the
> problem and solved it by linking his entire
> database to par. However, when Beyer\'s figures
> later became public, Beyer supposedly de-linked
> them from par--in order to allow historical
> comparisons between horses. OK, when he did this,
> how did he prevent the problem of shrinking
> figures from returning?\"

Rich..

You got it.. Will save this for Beyer who will certainly be on between now and Belmont Day.

SB

[Rich Curtis]

Thank you, Steve.

[Breakage]

HAHAHAHAHAHA

There is NO source that did not show an extremely unrealistic two week improvement.