IHA's post time odds

[phil23]

What will they be?

At this point I\'d go right around even money.  But not substantially less (ala Big Brown or Smarty).  Opinions?

[justwin]

I would agree. can\'t see him lower than 4-5 if Rags, Dullahan, Paynter & Street Life run. probably around 6-5 would be my guess. trying to figure what IHA will run in the Belmont. have to peg him around a 1. Who will run a zero? Possibles are Paynter & Dullahan. I can\'t see rags doing it based on his distance limitations. Have to put rags at his usual 2. I don\'t think Paynter will bounce based on his last being so easy. Anyone think Alpha has a shot?

[phil23]

I have been looking at Alpha as well.  Seeing 15:1 on him off horse.  He bounced to the moon in the derby so should certainly get back to close to his top.  Question is can he improve on it?  McLaughlin in NY doesn\'t hurt either.  5 weeks and his sire certainly ought to be able to get him the distance.  Leparoux up, ought to suit his style.  I\'m kinda surprised that Rosie has ended up on one of the rank outsiders (Five Sixteen).  Would have figured she\'d be a little more in demand.

[big18741]

Phil

I\'m pretty sure Leparoux is on Atigun for McPeek in the Belmont not Alpha.

Atigun ran in the first race on Derby Day looping the field in the mud at short odds.

[Breakage]

Seems high.

But I thought the same in The Preak with Bode at 2/1 during the lead up.
Thought it should have been even money-6/5 and ended up 8/5 obviously.

The Preakness and Belmont seem special in the regard that the people love to bet the odds and not the form.  Routinely see the no hopers overbet and look at astonishment at the likely horse\'s prices.

Seems impossible here and yet, 3/2 and 8/5 are currently available, granted they are no race=loss but they won\'t move much before now and race day.

[Donut]

Wait..the distance limitations on Union Rags? How did you come to that conclusion?

[justwin]

Donut, took this from TrueNicks.
The TrueNicks Enhanced Report for Union Rags does show that three of the four horses that have shown the most stamina of Dixie Union’s stakes winners—Gone Astray, Dixie City, and Grasshopper—are all, like Union Rags, products of the Dixie Union/Mr. Prospector cross. That cross has produced no less than 17 stakes winners from 114 starters (11%), eight of them graded. Despite the successes of Gone Astray, Dixie City, and Grasshopper, the average winning distances for the colts bred on the cross is 7.03 furlongs, slightly less than the average distance over which they have been asked to race, indicating that the nick is not exactly a source of stamina.

[Donut]

With all do respect that is the most ridiculous report I have ever seen. 2nd dam  could run from here to Guam. The bottom side of UR has Hyperion in the fifth generation..that\'s almost unheard of 2012. Union Rags has gotten whipped 4 times..yes 4 times in last 3 races and he was nowhere near tiring in the KD.Go to a sale sometime and look around...bloodstock agents and serious buyers laugh at reports like this. I\'d like to see the report on IHO because anybody that can tell me that IHO dosen\'t get a ton of stamina from his bottom side dosen\'t know what he/her is talkin about. The two hottest broodmare sire\'s in the country right now are bar none Gone West and Arch (Arch anywhere for last 3yrs has been amazing).UR has Gone West. The funniest thing about this business is how easily people in the game can just claim to be pedigree experts. There are no experts! there are people that are extremely knowledgeable on the subject but, #\'s and stats are for losers in the pedigree game. A very wise man in this game told me not too long ago \"when it all looks perfect on paper or if they\'re too pretty in the sale ring..there\'s gonna be problems coming, I want to see a problem somewhere\".
Remember these quotes:
Lauren Stitch
\"Boundary can\'t go 1 1/4\".  (Big Brown)

I forgot who said this one..but I know I heard it.
\"Elusive Quality dosen\'t scream Classic distance\"  (Smarty Jones)

Mark Johnson
\"No Indian Charlie can go 1 1/4\". (Liaison this year)

Union Rags can run all day.

Note: I liked IHO in the KD and have a ton of respect for him.

[justwin]

I trust your knowledge but i am not a pedigree expert and rely on what i read. I also read that there has not been a dixie union to win beyond 1 1/8. from what i understand the stamina is on the broodmare side so i don\'t take as much stock in the Dixie Union data. Either way, based on his pattern its hard for me envisioning a new top. I will wait to see all of the numbers before my final decision. Right now I am looking at Dullahan & Paynter.

[big18741]

I\'m no pedigree expert but looking at 12 furlong + stakes winners in the bloodlines might help.

Going back thru five generations for the contenders:

Alpha 11
Atigun 10
UR 10
IHA 7
Paynter 7
Street Life 7
Dullahan 4

Maybe Atigun jumps up a few here at a big price.He\'s getting better with lasix added two back and his work on Saturday was nice.

Alpha the other double digit odds horse that is interesting for a jump up but he\'s such a head case.

[jimbo66]

Justwin,

Not being critical here, just making a point you can choose to disagree with.  I think it is extremely dangerous to look at \"patterns\" without the filter of trip and other factors.  Union Rags Derby is/was a toss.  The Florida Derby was a bad race, I will buy that, although I admit I am giving him a pass for the ride there as he was ridden way too passively.  

I will be very very surprised if we don\'t see a big race out of Union Rags next Saturday.  That said, I am surprised almost every day when it comes to horse racing, so that doesn\'t mean much.  The bigger question for me is that if I\'ll Have Another runs another big race, it may not matter that Union Rags runs a big one.  The Derby/Preakness winner is tough as nails and as honest as the day is long.  He will need to be beat.  I know many will play him to bounce off the new top and 3rd race in 5 weeks, and I can\'t argue with that (I may even do it), but this horse is tough.

[justwin]

I will keep an open mind about rags. Too many smart people here still believe in him.

[JR]

Extra tight barn security. He\'ll have to come by it honestly.

[miff]

\"Extra tight barn security. He\'ll have to come by it honestly\'


...yeah, probably was all drugged up for the Derby and Preakness, how else could the horse win.

[JR]

Probably.