Excellent Interview

[TGJB]

Very good analysis of exactly what you need to be a good horseplayer (or make figures).

The stuff about doctors, however, is f-----g scary, no joke.

And the last question is the single greatest question ever asked in any interview, bar none.

http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/new_scientist/2012/05/risk_intelligence_how_gamblers_and_weather_forecasters_assess_probabilities_.html?wpisrc=sl_ipad

[magicnight]

A 15% strike rate is pretty good for trainers. For doctors? Not so much.

And the article about the JP Morgan directors responsible for risk management makes for a pretty good companion piece:

\"Well it turns out that JP Morgan has a Board of Directors and the Board of Directors has a risk committee and sitting on the risk committee are Ellen Futter, James Crown, and David Cote.

David Cote is the CEO of the industrial conglomerate Honeywell , Ellen Futter is the president of the American Museum of Natural History in New York (my favorite museum) which is best known for its gorgeous display of fossil dinosaurs, and James Crown is a guy who \"helps manage his family’s privately owned Chicago-based investment firm.\" Said firm exists because Crown\'s grandfather made a fortune that was passed down to Crown\'s dad and now Crown The Next Generation has a hand in steering things. In other words, he\'s mega-rich through no particular exertion of his own.

These are all eminently respectable board of directors types. But obviously this is the kind of Risk Committee you put together if your organizational goal is to (a) have a risk committee, (b) have it filled with eminently respectable board of directors types, and (c) have it not actually do anything to manage risk.\"

[sighthound]

Great article - I\'ve got to take the Risk Assessment test included.

The thing with doctors (because it happens with vets, too) is that what makes you exceptional is staying firmly evidence-based.  The more experience you have, the better your clinical esp and \"potential disaster\" antenna work - but you can\'t abandon evidence (test results, true percentages of success, etc) in favor of your \"gut feeling\" or you start to wing it too much and when you hit the inevitable failure, it will likely be unexpected and epic in proportion.

I\'m sure that applies to gambling within investment houses, too.

If you are going to have a surgery, ask your surgeon if his team uses the WHO Surgical Safety checklist.  And watch to see if your doctor applies it to you in the hour before surgery.  If they do not, walk away immediately, and tell the surgeon why.