ROTW - Stream!!

[Silver Charm]

Warm Hugs opens at 5/2 off the 12-1 Morning Line. Granted that ML was with Tapits Fly entered who is scratched.

Glad I pounced on the Double with Rothko. Now need a good run. McPeek.Steam showed earlier in a cheaper race. Showing again here with the 1 in the Doubles.

[number5858]

Not thrilled that the 9 was 5 lb overweight though

[Topcat]

number5858 Wrote:
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> Not thrilled that the 9 was 5 lb overweight though


Comes with the Nakatani package.   117 is about as good as you\'re going to get, these days.

[elkurzhal]

Would be a nice TGRAPH feature if the jocks min. weight last 90 days was listed next to the name.

[Wrongly]

As they were walking the horses to the track announcer stated Ravi\'s Song was wearing glue on shoes.

[Rick B.]

elkurzhal Wrote:
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> Would be a nice TGRAPH feature if the jocks min.
> weight last 90 days was listed next to the name.

This might be helpful if their \"natural\" weight was listed as well, so I can estimate how fatigued each of them might be from constant reducing.

[sekrah]

I\'d rather have the horses weight.  Far more valuable piece of information.

[Silver Charm]

I really doubt the 5 lbs made a difference. This one was off the bit on the far turn, and even if she had felt like running a little more, the wider trip was not going to catch the 4 who was narrowly beaten by the McPeek winner who got the rail trip.

Trainer KMP had 3 winners last night and one got Hit Hard Late, one got Hit Hard Early and One got Buried Money in the Double Pools.....Thats the information we needed!!!

[P-Dub]

Jockey\'s weight, horse\'s weight, reallY??  There\'s enough information to process, this is getting ridiculous.

Jockey\'s weight so you can adjust a TG figure?? Sure. The rest is nonsense.

[Rick B.]

P-Dub Wrote:
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> Jockey\'s weight, horse\'s weight, reallY??  There\'s
> enough information to process, this is getting
> ridiculous.
>
> Jockey\'s weight so you can adjust a TG figure??
> Sure. The rest is nonsense.

This info may be of no interest to *you*, but...does that make it \"nonsense\"?

* A older horse shows in his pp\'s that he runs his best when he\'s around, say, 1300 lbs. His poorer performances are when he has returned from layoff and tipped the scales at over 1500 lbs...but today, he checks in at 1250. Visual inspection confirms that he seems fit and healthy.

(Could knowing a horse\'s \"fighting weight\" vs. his current weight help make a betting decision? Some handicappers think so.)

* We have an on again, off again jockey here in Chicago that came out last year and admitted that he was having trouble making weight -- he is naturally a 150 lb. man. Some quick analysis showed that this guy was winning his share of the shorter races, but couldn\'t seem to get the job done at a route of ground, which revealed a pretty nifty betting angle: anytime this guy was replaced by another who could finish a route race, the horse almost always improved, and those that were paying attention and knew how to apply this arcane bit of info collected some handsome mutuels.

(Coincidence? Maybe, but I\'m not giving the money back.)

Finally, as a counterexample, I have absolutely no use for information about front wraps -- yet there are guys around who will argue to their death that this information is somehow significant...and yet, there it is, right in the pp\'s, much to my puzzlement.

The obvious concerns of how this newfangled info would be obtained, recorded, communicated, and who would pay for it -- all noted, but none are insurmountable barriers.

[dlf]

P-Dub:
The difference in weight carried between, say, 121 and 126 LBS is less than 5%. Anyone who uses these figs take such a differential seriously.
In any given race, there might be a horse that weighs 1000 LBS, and another that weighs 1200 LBS. That\'s a 20% differential. Don\'t you think that might be significant? I\'m not saying I would know how to use that information if I had it, but maybe I could come up with some methods to apply it, and it would certainly be interesting to look for patterns. I have always wondered whether a horse that weighs 100 LBS more than an opponent but carrying an additional 5 LBS, really is handicapped 1 TG point.
In any case,  the Hong Kong Jockey Club makes this information available to its bettors - why can\'t we do the same here?

[elkurzhal]

Horses weight would be nice, but isn\'t going to happen.  Jockeys minimum weight last X 90\'s would be a easy thing to pull from a database. Yes, I take a 5 lb diff seriously.  Would be nice to know if we can expect a guy to be 5+ overwieght.

[P-Dub]

Megahertz was a tiny mare, carried more weight than her opponents, and steam rolled them in the stretch. I\'m sure your point has merit, but where do we draw the line?? I wasn\'t referring to the TG wt scale as to whst is important when comparing figures.

As for Rick, yes its probably important to some. But why stop there??
- does a horse run better in the afternoon or evening?
- on a sunny day or cloudy day?
- on a windy day or no wind?

I could probably come up with many others. My point is how important is that stuff?? Horses that may be a bit overweight still win. Jockeys that have the issues you described still win races.  I absolutely agree that there are significant jockey changes that should be noted.

It\'s odds and probability. If a horse is fast enough to be competitive, do the odds justify a wager?? I hit the last race at Belmont yesterday at 15/1, and the last thing I cared about was how much the jockey used to weigh or how heavy the horse was. He had great numbers and was 15/1.

I\'ve seen experienced body language guys talk me off a winner because the horse didn\'t \"look\" good. Paid well too. I\'m sure it\'s relevant at times, but the tote board is the key. If you guys want to get caught up in a horse\'s weight and what a jockey used to weigh, more power to you, I hope it helps. For me, it\'s largely irrelevant and my personal results back that up. For others, if it helps, then great.

[Rick B.]

P-Dub Wrote:
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> As for Rick, yes its probably important to some.
> But why stop there??
> - does a horse run better in the afternoon or
> evening?
> - on a sunny day or cloudy day?
> - on a windy day or no wind?

I would point out that I can obtain and track the above info myself; how do I get horse weight data on my own,
which (as another poster pointed out) the Hong Kong Jockey Club provides to the bettors; obviously, having and using this info is not that far-fetched.

> It\'s odds and probability. If a horse is fast
> enough to be competitive, do the odds justify a
> wager??

Fair enough, but you\'re only looking at what the horse has done before.

What\'s wrong with some information about his current condition, especially with layoff horses?

[P-Dub]

Rick B. Wrote:
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> P-Dub Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > As for Rick, yes its probably important to
> some.
> > But why stop there??
> > - does a horse run better in the afternoon or
> > evening?
> > - on a sunny day or cloudy day?
> > - on a windy day or no wind?
>
> I would point out that I can obtain and track the
> above info myself; how do I get horse weight data
> on my own,
> which (as another poster pointed out) the Hong
> Kong Jockey Club provides to the bettors;
> obviously, having and using this info is not that
> far-fetched.
>
> > It\'s odds and probability. If a horse is fast
> > enough to be competitive, do the odds justify a
> > wager??
>
> Fair enough, but you\'re only looking at what the
> horse has done before.
>
> What\'s wrong with some information about his
> current condition, especially with layoff horses?


Nothing at all, and if that info helps a player then by all means they should use it.

As for layoffs, another way to gauge readiness is with a trainer\'s past history.  Some are more adept at getting a horse ready to fire off a layoff than others.

Its a great game. As this post illustrates, there are many ways to examine a race.  What works for some doesn\'t necessarily work for others. Perhaps my comment of nonsense was a bit harsh.