ROTW - Stream!!

[number5858]

For me, when the odds were a lot less than the ML odds, +5 lb overweight, and stuck on the outside, it was a no bet. So it was an important piece of information for me.

[plasticman]

Dub, even though Megahurtz was tiny and steamrolled everyone carrying more weight, maybe she would have won by more lengths had she had less weight.

Interestingly enough, Megahurtz has a son who seems just as small as his mom who\'s won 2 in a row, including his last race at Hollywood at 9-1.

[magicnight]

P-Dub wrote: \"Perhaps my comment of nonsense was a bit harsh.\"

Good Lord! It\'s been only about two weeks and just LOOK what\'s become of you!

[miff]

Weight a somewhat controversial subject.To some every ounce matters, to others a few pounds is not relevant.Average horse is 1000 lbs, stands 64 inches/16 hands measured to the fetlock.

From there, you get to the immeasurable ability of each horse to carry the weight. It is impossible to believe that every horse has the same strength to shoulder say a 126lb impost.Light framed horses, esp fillies are most probably not as strong as larger animals.Megahurtz was a peanut but well put together.Her ability to carry weight was outside the norm.

Horses also lose quite a bit of weight from racing/training,lasix etc.so as to Rick B\'s comments,it\'s tough to do with so many horses at so many circuits, unlike Hongkong.It is uncommon for horses to be routinely weighed in NY, generally speaking.

Asked several jocks/trainers about weight and received varying opinions about it\'s overall relevance.The answers ranged from the individual horse to any weight the horse in question may have been spotting.Never spoke to anyone who did not want less weight on their horse.

Personal barometer has always been the Fall High weight where I have seen many horses carry the highest weight of their careers and run just as fast.The argument that they would have run faster with a few less pounds does not carry any weight with me, no pun intended.

[magicnight]

Miff wrote:

\"Average horse is 1000 lbs, stands 64 inches/16 hands measured to the fetlock.\"

Most people measure from the ground up. Guessing you are measuring from the withers down?

[miff]

Magic,

Either up or down but it\'s to the ground, not the fetlock, had brain lock.


Mike

[Lost Cause]

magicnight Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub wrote: \"Perhaps my comment of nonsense was a
> bit harsh.\"
>
> Good Lord! It\'s been only about two weeks and just
> LOOK what\'s become of you!


HA!!
He has learned quickly..

[richiebee]

I do not know if I would use weight of the horse as a large factor in my day to day
handicapping. That being said, I would be very curious as to IHA\'s weight going
into the Derby v. his weight going into the Belmont.

[TGJB]

That\'s the point. Without seeing some data there\'s no way to know whether it\'s useful or not. But if a horse is running his best figures at or close to a certain weight and bad races below or above it, I would want to know his weight today-- which I think they give out in Japan, and in dog races here (at least used to).

George is looking at what we can do about the riders\' weights. I agree, it\'s a pain in the butt trying to figure out weight relationships handicapping the day before, especially at tracks you don\'t play regularly.

[P-Dub]

magicnight Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub wrote: \"Perhaps my comment of nonsense was a
> bit harsh.\"
>
> Good Lord! It\'s been only about two weeks and just
> LOOK what\'s become of you!


That\'s funny.

Would you guys prefer to old P-Dub, if not the one that gets admonished from time to time, one that still acts like an argumentative __________??

[magicnight]

I like any of the P-Dubs, no matter how much weight you are carrying around.

Just a grumpy Monday for me (the in-laws are visiting, coincidence?), so I felt like throwing some darts, with you and Miff as the good-natured targets.

[richiebee]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 
> It\'s odds and probability. If a horse is fast
> enough to be competitive, do the odds justify a
> wager?? I hit the last race at Belmont yesterday
> at 15/1, and the last thing I cared about was how
> much the jockey used to weigh or how heavy the
> horse was. He had great numbers and was 15/1.

P-Dub:

I\'ll leave the redboard alone, but I have to ask what numbers you are referring
to.

The winner of the last race Saturday was Not Today, a five year old making third
lifetime start, first start on turf. NT ran once as a 3YO (TG 23). NT\'s only
other lifetime race, as a 5YO, resulted in a TG 17. By my quick count, no less
than five runners in the race were faster than Not Today, including the 2
longshots I needed to complete very nice doubles: Dreamalot and Soup a Fleet, who
ran second and third. The trainer, ex NFL safety William Cesare, is struggling
this year, so again, I\'m wondering what #s we are talking about here. And please
dont tell me there was a pattern here.

Topcat probably remembers the owner of Not Today, Joe Imbesi, who trained some
nice horses for his family\'s Briardale Farm back in the day.

In an unrelated matter, I never took the time to congratulate you on your
marriage and compliment you on the heartfelt post about your mom. I will echo the
sentiments of another poster and say that I was glad I was alone at my desk when
I read it.

Life gives us second chances. My mother died in her early 50s, and, unfortunately,
we were estranged at the time of her death. Last Thanksgiving, my 85 year old
mother in law moved in with my wife and me. I am very close with my mother in
law, there is a very strong bond, which I partially attribute to trying to make
up for the years that I battled with my own mother.

[P-Dub]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>  
> > It\'s odds and probability. If a horse is fast
> > enough to be competitive, do the odds justify a
> > wager?? I hit the last race at Belmont
> yesterday
> > at 15/1, and the last thing I cared about was
> how
> > much the jockey used to weigh or how heavy the
> > horse was. He had great numbers and was 15/1.
>
> P-Dub:
>
> I\'ll leave the redboard alone, but I have to ask
> what numbers you are referring
> to.
>
> The winner of the last race Saturday was Not
> Today, a five year old making third
> lifetime start, first start on turf. NT ran once
> as a 3YO (TG 23). NT\'s only
> other lifetime race, as a 5YO, resulted in a TG
> 17. By my quick count, no less
> than five runners in the race were faster than Not
> Today, including the 2
> longshots I needed to complete very nice doubles:
> Dreamalot and Soup a Fleet, who
> ran second and third. The trainer, ex NFL safety
> William Cesare, is struggling
> this year, so again, I\'m wondering what #s we are
> talking about here. And please
> dont tell me there was a pattern here.
>
> Topcat probably remembers the owner of Not Today,
> Joe Imbesi, who trained some
> nice horses for his family\'s Briardale Farm back
> in the day.
>
> In an unrelated matter, I never took the time to
> congratulate you on your
> marriage and compliment you on the heartfelt post
> about your mom. I will echo the
> sentiments of another poster and say that I was
> glad I was alone at my desk when
> I read it.
>
> Life gives us second chances. My mother died in
> her early 50s, and, unfortunately,
> we were estranged at the time of her death. Last
> Thanksgiving, my 85 year old
> mother in law moved in with my wife and me. I am
> very close with my mother in
> law, there is a very strong bond, which I
> partially attribute to trying to make
> up for the years that I battled with my own
> mother.

Richie,

I use TG on big days: Breeders\' Cup, Kentucky Derby, etc..  For my daily handicapping, I play tracks big and small and use another product. Smaller tracks with cheaper horses, I don\'t have a strong handle on them using TG.  I prefer using TG with better quality races.  I should have used a generic....\"I hit a race last week\", instead of citing a specific race.  This is a TG board, and I don\'t like to refer to other products, I don\'t think its in good taste to do so. My fault on that one.

I appreciate the kind words.  I never thought my post would resonate with so many people. We are interring her ashes this Saturday, and having a small get together after with close family and friends. I won\'t be playing this Saturday, but have already informed everyone that at around 3:15 we will be watching the Belmont. My mom would expect nothing less.

Wonderful to hear about your mother-in-law. Cherish the time you spend with her.  She sounds like a special woman.  Life is a wonderful gift that at times we all take for granted.

Good luck this weekend.