Go back to California Mike

[jimbo66]

Rich,

If there is, I don\'t have it.  

Like many on this board, I have watched a lot of races in my lifetime and there are horses that appear to be less comfortable when runnning down inside and I believe \"not coincidentally\", don\'t run as well.  Quality Road was another big strapping colt that needed to be outside.  

Street Sense, on the other hand, seemed to flourish cutting the corner, down on the inside (and yes, I know having Borel on him didn\'t hurt with the propensity to be down inside).

Figures are ONE part of the game and ONE tool in handicapping.  We all have to make judgments outside the figures before we bet and it isn\'t always scientific.  I believe and will bet that Union Rags is a much faster horse than he showed yesterday.  How many \"fast figures\" have we seen in the last few years in the Belmont?  Not many.  1 1/2 on dirt is not something we breed for, nor train for.  It is no accident we get aberrational results in the Belmont, so much so that betting on every Belmont horse over the last x number of years resulted in a flat bet profit (don\'t have the quote from Beyer handy on that).

Good luck,

Jim

[sighthound]

I think Johnny V knew exactly how much horse he had, and knew that, at that point with a furlong left or so, if he used UR remaining energy to change direction and move out to the center of the track, that would be the \"one move\" his horse could make at that point - UR wouldn\'t necessarily have enough energy left to also go past Paynter, too.

Instead JV chose to sit on the rail and wait (hope) for the opening, instead using his horses\' only energy burst to accellerate for a couple strides - just enough to barely win.

[miff]

Sight,

Johnny V handicapped Mike Smith. Once pinned inside he was waiting for Mike Smith to go to his patented strong left hand, sure enough he did.No other option at that point.


Mike

[P-Dub]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sight,
>
> Johnny V handicapped Mike Smith. Once pinned
> inside he was waiting for Mike Smith to go to his
> patented strong left hand, sure enough he did.No
> other option at that point.
>
>
> Mike


When Smith hit him left handed, UR was already in the hole and had enough room. Watch the replay.

[miff]

Paul,

Agree, saw that. Only repeating what Johnny V said about the stretch run.


Mike

[sighthound]

Exactly.   JV won that round.

[sighthound]

Frankly, I was surprised UR still had enough run to fit through there.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- you and I are going to have to remember to revisit this before the Jim Dandy or Haskell, whichever one UR goes in. I\'ll probably do it for ROTW.

[MO]

Not sour grapes on my part unless you consider the fact that for the first time in at least a decade I put some serious work into playing a P6, and I kept coming up with \"hit the all button\", thus making the ticket too expensive. So I settled on what I thought were the 2 best betting races in the sequence, and got drubbed there....

[Beginner]

I had a pretty surreal experience after the Belmont this year.  I got to the track around 2:30pm and was having a pretty good day at the windows and just a really fun day overall. (loved the jockey-ettes parading around the grounds giving away IHA posters)  I had a 3,9 exacta box (along with other tickets) on the Belmont. I loved Paynter, but I just didn\'t want to watch Mike Smith get run down again at the wire and have nothing on it - so I boxed it.  Somehow, I managed to leave UR off my pick 4 ticket and was alive to the Belmont.  Genius.

Sure enough, deja vu.  After the race, I spent 20 minutes talking to a friend about how badly I felt for Mike Smith (the subject of this string, notwithstanding). I stayed til the 13th and enjoyed the sunset.  So I head back to my former hometown with friends and go to one of the local bars that has been there since the beginning of time.  I had a few beers at the bar which was relatively crowded and I turned to go to the bathroom and literally run into Mike Smith! It was truly bizarre and so random.  

I introduced myself and told him how badly I felt for him and he was so cool and casual, I almost couldn\'t believe it was him.  I kept thinking I just watched this guy lose the 3rd TC race of the season in almost identical fashion  3 hours ago. I spent almost a half an hour speaking with him about the TC series, the craziness of being run down 3 times on 2 different Baffert horses.  I\'m not the type of person to question a professional (a) when I don\'t know enough to question and (b) when I think the person is down. I\'m sure some of you guys would have had a lot better questions to ask him.  I think he was concerned about letting the 2 horse go by him on the far turn and stepped on the gas maybe more than he wanted.  Maybe UR doesn\'t get the chance to go by if that doesn\'t happen.  I don\'t know and I don\'t know enough to speculate.  I do know enough to say he was a total gentleman, class act and a downright great guy. He wasn\'t drunk or even mildly inebriated.  He certainly didn\'t have sour grapes and was gracious in defeat paying a lot of respect to both UR and IHA.  It turns out he was there by himself, he was wearing a suit and only a few other people recognized him. When we were done talking - mostly because I REALLY had to go to the bathroom, he told me was leaving and walking back to his hotel - and out the door he went and started walking toward the hotel.  This was at Leo\'s in Garden City for anyone familiar with the area.  Todd Pletcher also has a house in town.  It certainly was a great experience.  This was a Belmont I certainly won\'t forget.

[P-Dub]

Beginner Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I had a pretty surreal experience after the
> Belmont this year.  I got to the track around
> 2:30pm and was having a pretty good day at the
> windows and just a really fun day overall. (loved
> the jockey-ettes parading around the grounds
> giving away IHA posters)  I had a 3,9 exacta box
> (along with other tickets) on the Belmont. I loved
> Paynter, but I just didn\'t want to watch Mike
> Smith get run down again at the wire and have
> nothing on it - so I boxed it.  Somehow, I managed
> to leave UR off my pick 4 ticket and was alive to
> the Belmont.  Genius.
>
> Sure enough, deja vu.  After the race, I spent 20
> minutes talking to a friend about how badly I felt
> for Mike Smith (the subject of this string,
> notwithstanding). I stayed til the 13th and
> enjoyed the sunset.  So I head back to my former
> hometown with friends and go to one of the local
> bars that has been there since the beginning of
> time.  I had a few beers at the bar which was
> relatively crowded and I turned to go to the
> bathroom and literally run into Mike Smith! It was
> truly bizarre and so random.  
>
> I introduced myself and told him how badly I felt
> for him and he was so cool and casual, I almost
> couldn\'t believe it was him.  I kept thinking I
> just watched this guy lose the 3rd TC race of the
> season in almost identical fashion  3 hours ago. I
> spent almost a half an hour speaking with him
> about the TC series, the craziness of being run
> down 3 times on 2 different Baffert horses.  I\'m
> not the type of person to question a professional
> (a) when I don\'t know enough to question and (b)
> when I think the person is down. I\'m sure some of
> you guys would have had a lot better questions to
> ask him.  I think he was concerned about letting
> the 2 horse go by him on the far turn and stepped
> on the gas maybe more than he wanted.  Maybe UR
> doesn\'t get the chance to go by if that doesn\'t
> happen.  I don\'t know and I don\'t know enough to
> speculate.  I do know enough to say he was a total
> gentleman, class act and a downright great guy. He
> wasn\'t drunk or even mildly inebriated.  He
> certainly didn\'t have sour grapes and was gracious
> in defeat paying a lot of respect to both UR and
> IHA.  It turns out he was there by himself, he was
> wearing a suit and only a few other people
> recognized him. When we were done talking - mostly
> because I REALLY had to go to the bathroom, he
> told me was leaving and walking back to his hotel
> - and out the door he went and started walking
> toward the hotel.  This was at Leo\'s in Garden
> City for anyone familiar with the area.  Todd
> Pletcher also has a house in town.  It certainly
> was a great experience.  This was a Belmont I
> certainly won\'t forget.

What a cool story, that will certainly be a great memory for you.

I\'ve met Mike Smith twice, and he was an absolute gentleman each time.  Smalltimer arranged for me to meet him last year on my annual Big Cap trip, and he was very accommodating to us. I also saw him this year after he ran second in the SF Mile here at GG.  After he ran 2nd on the chalk Jeranimo, many fans were anxious to meet him, get an autograph, and take a few pictures.  He was extremely gracious with his time and a class act.

Congrats on the fine wagering day, despite the P4 snafu.  Sounds like you had a fantastic time.

[sekrah]

What does being a gentleman have to do with jockey skill relative to his peers?   There\'s lots of gentlemen out there, it doesn\'t mean they are the best at their profession.   That trait doesn\'t make him a better jockey.  Mike Smith is SEVERAL years removed from his prime and is a PISS POOR, Below Average jockey these days.   I don\'t have any remarkable encounters with this gentleman that would affect my honest and accurate assessment of his jockey skill.

But P-Dub, Here are the ROI and Win% (last 12 months) of all the jockeys that had mounts in the Belmont Stakes.

Nakatani 2.14 ROI - 18% Win
Alvarado 2.08 ROI - 20% Win
Gutierrez 1.93 ROI - 19% Win
Napravnik 1.88 ROI - 22% Win
LeParoux 1.87 ROI - 22% Win
Lezcano 1.86 ROI - 18% Win
Castellano 1.84 ROI - 21% Win
Desormeaux 1.77 ROI - 15% Win
Velazquez 1.70 ROI - 20% Win
Dominguez 1.69 ROI - 23% Win
Solis 1.53 ROI - 9% Win
Smith 1.12 ROI - 13% Win

That\'s alot of butchered rides there Mike.  Someone should stick a fork in the guy, he\'s DONE!  He\'s a hell of a gentleman though.  Pathetic, disgrace of a jockey, but hell of human being.

[drbillym]

One of my most memorable experiences was when Chris McCarron won the Travers about Deputy Commander, nosing out the favored Behrens.  It was an emotional week for McCarron as his mother had died a few days earlier.  Following the race, we were celebrating with our winnings at a nice Italian restaurant.  We looked over at a few tables away and saw Chris with about 10 family members and friend.  Three of us wanted to meet him, but our buddy who had bet on Behrens said, I\'d like to ring that little *%$@ neck!  So Chris walks by our table and the disgruntled friend kept his cool and said Congrats, Chris.  We chatted for about 10 minutes and I will never forget it.  I would hope that if Sekrah actually met Mike Smith in person, he would realize the priorities of life and also be a gentleman.

[miff]

\"That\'s alot of butchered rides there Mike. Someone should stick a fork in the guy, he\'s DONE!\"


Sek,

Many who have watched Mike Smith for years surely know he\'s slowed his pretty brilliant career down. You watched him ride in the TC and conclude he\'s done, fork time? Pretty tough to name any top jock who hasn\'t butchered a few.

Never a big fan of Wide Mikey\'s style but he can still send one, rate one and finish with authority. Precisely what are you watching? You\'re slamming a guy based on current ROI?

Think it\'s clouding your judgement.Not too many outfits that would not use Mike Smith based on his current ability.


Mike

[sekrah]

Those are the facts.  There is no defending his ROI.   For every one \"he can still rate and finish with authority\" there must be a dozen that he blows to achieve that sort of rate.

I\'m using one of the best tools we have to judge a rider, Return on Investment.  Everyone else is rating him by personality.  And I\'m the one with my judgement clouded?  Umm okay.