Haven\'t missed a Travers since 1986 and was there today. Took a few lumps myself, though the damage was light. Today was first time I bet since July 28th; thought a break was in order after a long losing streak.
Through good fortune had not attended a Travers sans seats in the clubhouse since \'93. Naively showed up at around two today, parked in the bushes on Ward St, and me and my 13 year old son got out and began lugging our lawn chairs and cooler toward the Nelson Ave entrance. Given today\'s humidity levels, this turned into quite the desultory trudge-fest, and any notions I had of reliving golden memories of the late \'80\'s/early 90\'s dissipated with the large amounts of sweat pouring off of us and with encountering the suffocating sea of humanity occupying the backyard. They announced the crowd at 46k and change, but it felt like twice that. Had to go all the way over to the playground to find room to put our stuff down. As soon as we did a little baby started screeching and I thought shit, I have an 11-month old, I could have stayed home if I wanted to listen to this. My son and I debated leaving immediately but we decided to stick it out.
I did not buy TG today so take my comments with the requisite grains of salt. Coming in off a losing streak and a layoff I set a strict total loss limit (which I hit with alarming ease) of $100 for the day, so spending $25 on the numbers seemed out of proportion to me, just like spending $200 for a pair of clubhouse seats on offer via craigslist seemed out of order, though next year, I\'ll do it if necessary.
Back in the day, the dad of a good friend of mine did his best to teach me the ropes. He didn\'t use figures but he did use, in my view, principles espoused here. One of the earliest lessons involved a Mack Miller trainee named, I believe, Coronation Cup, who ran in either a maiden or NW 1x grass race the day before the \'92 Travers. I liked a longshot in this race. My mentor told me the Miller horse, on offer at the unappetizing price of 8/5, was a cinch. He made me go watch the replay of her last race with him. I watched. She ran around the track unimpeded in like fifth all the way around; I didn\'t get it. I was expecting some checking or something.
He grabbed my shoulder and said, LOOK! PAY ATTENTION! SHE WAS FOUR AND FIVE WIDE ALL THE WHOLE RACE! I still didn\'t get it - geometry really was my worst subject in high school. But he broke it down for me, made me understand that being four or five wide all the way around meant the horse actually ran farther than other horses had in the same race.
I wound up betting the 8/5 shot over my longshot in a $20 exacta, backing it up for a couple. The Miller horse aired and my horse got up by a nose and I won what was for me, at the time, an absolute fortune, something like $600.
Another thing this guy used to harp on was avoiding at all cost horses who seemed to be making a habit of getting beat at short prices. I thought of his harping when I read the comments here about Animal Spirits and Night Site; both showed three straight short-priced beats in their last three outs. When I read the comments I thought their figs and/or patterns must have looked awfully good but I also thought, man, Sam would cry if he ever found out I\'d bet either of them. Unfortunately my son insisted on leaving after the Travers (in that one I bet the wrong McPeek), on our way out there was this nagging voice in my head telling me to run back to the windows to leave a bet on the eventual $16.60 winner, but alas, I had hit my loss limit for the day and decided against adding $20 to it, so my losing streak continued.
Anyway, as an intermittent TG user, I\'m genuinely curious to know if experienced users ever consider simplistic angles like \"don\'t bet horses who keep getting beat at short prices?\" Seems like even if the advantage on numbers is big, you have to be right so many times on repeat offenders like Night Site that it\'s not worth it. I will admit I used Animal Spirits among others over and under the son of Film Maker (thought the race cried out for a price, maybe next time); the Lukas piece wasn\'t one of the ones I put in the mix.
Last thought - to my eyes, best looking run I saw all day came from Zagora. Watched the race upstairs and got a good view, visually, it was impressive - she looked like she was shot out of a cannon as she inhaled Summer Soiree (my bet).
