drshillito Wrote:
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> Lets get back to handicapping as Keeneland opens
> on Friday and this Kentucky boy is very glad to
> see the doors open after a month of horrific
> Turfway fare.
>
> I\'ve always kept a mental note to keep an eye on
> Charlie Lopresti runners off of huge efforts. I
> think sometimes his runners will regress off of
> monster efforts and short turnarounds. Now,
> obviously Wise Dan is a special animal with
> probably the most talent of any horse that
> Lopresti has ever trained, but he has turned in
> four monster efforts this year (2 on turf, 1 on
> dirt, 1 on poly). And as TGJB has warned us over
> the years, those huge figs can take a toll on a
> horse over time.
>
With a Grade 3 win on synth, two graded wins on turf and a narrow loss to Ron
the Greek on dirt in the Foster (G1), this guy has to get some HOTY consideration
if he wins a BC race. If you are trying to beat him, you have to hope that
Lopresti is focusing on a BC race and will not have this one fully cranked for
the Shadwell.
> To add fuel to the fire, I recall a TGJB lesson on
> how horses will sometimes miss the break or bear
> in, bear out, etc when they are \"over the top\".
> For example, I Want Revenge\'s near disastrous
> break from the gate in the Wood Memorial
> foreshadowed his subsequent injury that led him to
> be declared from the KY Derby. Well, Wise Dan was
> designated with the \"op\" last time and it makes me
> wonder if now is the time to take a shot against
> him on Saturday.
>
> And last but not least, Dan is 0 for 1 on the
> Keeneland turf, finishing 4th last year behind Gio
> Ponti in the same race (probably a tougher spot
> than this year\'s version).
I\'m all over horse for course angles, but you have to give me something more
to work with than a one race sample!
>
> All this adds up to me taking a shot against Wise
> Dan in horizontals. Will likely include Dominus,
> Data Link, Worthadd and Corporate Jungle.
Of the ones you mentioned, my only comment would be that Dominus got an
incredibly easy and relaxed lead in the Baruch and probably will have pressure
to contend with on Saturday.
>
> Thoughts?
I\'m focusing on Belmont Saturday, but two Keeneland runners in the 10th race
caught my eye: Azorina, who trailed the field in her first start at Arlington,
gets a total makeover (blinx, Lasix) for David Carroll stretching to two turns
with outstanding breeding. Bird Swing, for Ian Wilkes, goes sprint to route, turf
to synth after being well beaten at 4/1 at Ellis. Must have been shocking to see
the iconic Whitney colors at the Pea Patch. Both fillies are 15/1 ML.
