A few BC Thoughts

[jimbo66]

First off, hope everybody in the Northeast found shelter and safety.  Quite a storm.  Unfortunately, the newscasters were not exaggerating this time.

Secondly, I, for one, am excited at what I hope is the opportunity to bet on a \"real track\" on the biggest day of racing, for the first time in 4 years.  Yes, I consider Churchill a \"real track\", but when the rail is dead and speed is disgusting, it becomes very aberrational.  That was the case the previous two years.  Then before that, two years of pro-ride at Santa Anita.  I suspect there will be no excuses this weekend, as the Santa Anita surface seems to be pretty fair, in general.

A few horses I am looking to key around over the two days:

I like Zagora at a square price in the F&M Turf.  She is consistently fast and in good form.  Her last race at Belmont was a bog, so I am going to forgive her getting tired late.  The one before was a beauty at Saratoga.  The Euros will take a ton of money and are VERY VERY slow on TG.  Buyer beware though, in that I have continually gotten fooled over years with Euros coming into the races here with extremely slow TG figures and then they win anyway.  Goldlikova even looked slow coming into 3 of the last 4 years.  Many are saying that Zagora won\'t get the 1 1/4.  I will choose to disagree with that.  As said, that last race was on a bog and the previous 1 1/4 try last year at Belmont was quite good, with her charging hard late, almost getting to a horse who led all the way on a very soft pace.  The race looks pretty paceless and she should get a decent trip with the inside post.  I am thinking 8-1 is very very fair for this horse and I give her a big shot.

I like a \"slow\" horse in the BC Mile.  I look at the race by assessing the two horses that figure to take most of the money, Shackleford and Emcee.  I would have loved Emcee in the Sprint as that race is very slow.  However, I am not srue I want Emcee trying the distance and two turns for the first time.  A regrettable toss for me, but I have to do it.  Shackleford just doesn\'t seem to be the same horse to me that he was earlier in the year.  yes he was better last time out but Jersey Town went by him like he was standing still.  The old Shackleford was a battler.  Third choice is Jersey Town.  He certainly has big figures and if he fires one, he likely wins, as only Emcee can run as fast as he can.  I expect him to bounce though.  He has a history of regressing, and I will play him to do that.  The horse I like is Fed Biz.  Yep, pretty slow for this race, but I think a mile is perfect for him and I can\'t get over the fact that I thought he was the best 3 year old I saw this spring and since I give Jimmy Creed a shot in the sprint, I have to respect his win against that one two races back.  He disappointed the hell out of me last time, as I needed him in Indiana, and I can\'t really explain it, but I am going to give him a chance to run a nice race at a price.  He should leave the gate and take the rail, letting Shackleford and Emcee go by.  

I know that attacking Groupie Doll is probably a fruitless exercise, but I may take a small flyer against her.  I am going to say her best races were on synthetic, except the crazy race at Churchill on Derby day.  However, I think that track was a bit quirky and I will take a chance she could be slightly vulnerable.  I don\'t see a ton of pace in the race.  I wonder if Dust and Diamonds could shake loose on the front end and be gone.  Slowly improving, and a competitive number last out, with everybody else but Groupie Doll, gets an inside post a likely early lead and if the track is playing to speed, I give her an upset chance.

Good luck,

Jim

[aceriley63]

For this year\'s Breeder\'s Cup, I\'m interested to see how jockey Rafael Bejarano does.  He\'s hell on wheels out here, but amazingly he has only two BC wins over the last 8 years.  And no success on the big stage of the Triple Crown races.  With his familiarity with the courses and some live local Baffert mounts, I expect him to at least double his career BC win total over the two days.

[drshillito]

I, too, like Fed Biz in the Dirt Mile. I felt like these types of races were in his future when he blitzed the same distance back earlier in the year at Santa Anita.  I think the key with this horse winning the Mile will be his ability to rate off of what I believe will be a faster than par pace, what with Emcee, Tapizar, Shackleford in the early mix. What intrigues me most about this son of Giant\'s Causeway is the \'third off the lay\' angle.  He paired up his comeback effort last time in the Indy Derby and I think he\'s capable of exploding Saturday.

Any thoughts about In Lingerie in the F&M Turf? Her numbers, in my opinion, are surprisingly competitive with this group.  I\'m wondering, with the lack of early speed in this event, will the TAP camp decide to send her early from the poor post in hopes of getting a 1w1w trip and soft fractions.  I\'d think that she could wire this thing by going 47 and 1:11 with a two length lead turning for home. Her Kee poly efforts indicate that the switch to turf is well within her realm.

I find Gantry interesting in the Sprint. Last time, in Louisiana, he was trapped down along the rail chasing a slow pace set by the useful sprinter Delaunay before angling out and having nothing to offer to catch the aforementioned winner.  Perhaps he was still recovering from the monstrous effort at Calder earlier in the summer and the two months rest since that rest could be all the doctor ordered for this guy to fire his best shot once again. He has proven that he can race at any track successfully, with big efforts at Belmont, Churchill, Calder, and Fair Grounds.  I think he will be overlooked with his unknown connections (Faucheux) and may get sent off at 12-1 or so. I think his chances of winning or even hitting the board are much greater.

[bstaubs22]

I\'m hoping the for the same fate with Dust and Diamonds, except I think that Teddy\'s Promise from the rail will have to go and I want Dust and Diamonds to basically get the same trip she got in her last stalking the pacesetter outside. According to race shapes that could be the case. I agree if that doesn\'t happen she will have to try and wire the field. I\'m against Turbulent simply because I think she loves SAR and her last wasn\'t that great from a guy who brought her back to a negative number first start with the operation.

With regard to the F&M Turf I had the same idea as earlier post about In Lingerie going to the front and playing catch me if you can. If she is allowed to get comfy on the lead look out. I like Zagora and then Marketing Mix with the Euros.

[mjellish]

Hey Jimbo,

I think you make a good point about evaluating the Euro figs.  The fig is what it is and I don\'t tend to question them.  But as I\'ve said before on this board, it seems to me that the slow early pace often compresses the figs in the Euro races. When they go 51 and change to the half due to running styles, jockey intent, etc. (but could have went faster) they just can\'t come home in 21 and change to make up for it.  So you wind up with a slow overall time and therefore fig, and you have to take that into account somehow.  So when I see a colt like Dundonnell in the Juv Turf coming out of a slow early, fast late race shape with an already competitive fig, I tend to respect the number even more.  Same could be said for Noble Tune, who closed strongly and passed them all anyway after a pretty slow early pace in the Pilgrim over yielding ground.

I understand your thoughts around playing against Groupie Doll but I just can\'t quite get there.  She looks awfully tough to me.  And she\'ll be such a strong single on most horizontals that I\'m not even sure there is any value in using her strong and going deep in a few of the other races.  She probably keeps me out of the early Pick 4 altogether.  This is one race I may just watch a champion go about her business.

For what it\'s worth I heard the colt you like in the Dirt Mile had a great final work with a strong double gallop out afterwords and seems to be coming into this in top form, and the favorites are beatable IMO.

I haven\'t finished the Friday races but here\'s a couple more thoughts about Saturday.

The Turf Sprint is a spread race for me because you have to get the trip over this quirky track configuration.  But I was very impressed by Unbridled\'s Note in his first try on the lawn and I\'m leaning towards keying him strongly.  He\'s 1/1 over this surface and now he breaks from the 13 post and figures to get about the same trip as last time when he broke from the 12.  He\'s a little short on number power but has room to improve 2nd on the grass as a 3 yr old and the price should be fair for the risk.  Hoping a bomber can get into the verticals with him.

I\'m going to try to beat Shanghai Bobby in his first try around 2 turns in the Juvenile.  I liked Power Broker a lot before the draw.  Baffert\'s been running him on the grass because he\'s a two turn horse, not because he\'s bred for it.  He set a strong early pace two back after being bumped pretty hard at the start and held on really well to miss by a neck on a surface that probably isn\'t his best.  His first on the SA dirt was a big move forward and a fast fig for a 2 year old.  But like I said, I think the draw hurt him and tempered my enthusiasm as he\'s now likely to lose ground all the way around.  Dynamic Sky is interesting in this spot as a first try on dirt.  I could see a first time dirt from synthetic move up here as he\'s not bred to have a preference either way.  He\'s also one of the few that is not Lasix off here (along with Fortify), and if either one of them breaks through now they could stalk and pounce at a nice price.  Bye the way, not sure how the Lasix off thing is going to affect the 2 yr old races this year, but it\'s a pretty useless new policy IMO.

Don\'t yet have a strong opinion about the BC Turf other than to say the race the Euro\'s look beatable and the pace should be reasonable/strong.

The Sprint is such a roughly run race that it\'s tough to put your neck out there on any one entry.  Spread race.

The race of the day for me from a fan\'s perspective has to be the BC Mile.  Watching Wise Dan and Excelebration duke it out in the stretch if they both bring their A-race is going to be worth the price of admission and then some.  The former is certainly in the discussion for North American Horse of The Year IMO, and the later has pretty much trounced anyone not named Frankel up and down the European Continent the past two years.  If you can beat both of them with anyone you probably have a big return in the horizontals.  But I am going to go with the chalk here and use these two in the Pick 4.

Game on Dude is going to take some beating in the Classic IMO.  From what I hear his last work was pretty special and he seems to be coming up to this primed for a top effort on a track that he is 5/5 on and in a race that would appear to set up nicely for him.  I will probably single him on my main horizontal ticket(s) and spread on a few back-ups.  If Flat Out\'s foot issues are behind him he\'s already run fast enough to be there.

Should be fun.  I don\'t plan to make a killing but hopefully I can get out in the Pick 4 by getting a price horse home in the Turf or the Sprint.

[miff]

\"I like Zagora at a square price in the F&M Turf. She is consistently fast and in good form\"


Careful Jim,a Kool Aid drinker told me Zagora a total toss, 0 2 X. Dont ya love it!

[vired]

What effect if any will there be for the horses that were delayed in shipping out of ny and ky?

[miff]

Vired,

No jogging for a couple of days also cant help and late arrival gives less settling in time. Can\'t quantify effect but at best its netural,possible negative, cant see anything positive.


Good Luck


Mike

[TreadHead]

I am hesitant to discount Shak, he clearly is a horse that does not care for even the slightest bit of moisture in the ground, and if you go by that theory you have to toss his last 2 and look back to his races on truly fast going, which he should certainly get at SA.  

Have also read lots of discussion about Trackus data in 2-turn routes so far at SA and losing ground is a death sentence according to that recent data.  Shak has the speed needed to get a good spot near the rail and the burried number power to run well IMO.

[gteasy]

The paddock can be key...if you can\'t be there, stay glued to the feed.

These races are so tough, prefer or consider professionals at the conditions...especially those out of key races.

Many horses move forward spring to summer, then get a much needed break...look for those about to circle back to their previous form.

With Euros adding lasix I like to allow for a two-point forward move just in case...2nd tier Euro\'s can often be dismissed.

On Friday, look for track biases and the impact of lasix off American horses...Fortify will be an interesting consideration in Saturday\'s Juvenile.

Finally, ask yourself if this is the way you would prepare a horse for the Breeders\' Cup...I think the Japanese have done a great job pointing Trailblazer for the Turf, win or lose.

gt

[richiebee]

Good call on Zagora, Jim.

[jimbo66]

Thanks RichieBee.

Hope you are hitting them hard!  

Jim

[aceriley63]

Wow.  He didn\'t even sniff a win.