jerry, the contest....

[CHOWDERMAN]

are you happy with the way the format played out, not just for you, but how people play it strategywise...can you tell us your picks and strategy in this format....i was there, was looking for you on the leaderboard after trinnieberg won....anyone else feel free to give their take on this format...

i will not go to this tournament next year because it\'s in la two years in a row...had massive traffic problems getting to and from lax....

the top two finishers finished one-two again...

i went off zagora after a week of having her as my play...that caused a chain reaction where i couldn\'t make any bets on the last two races on friday, that i would have hit....then on saturday, i was out of plays so i couldn\'t bet trinnieberg and mucho......just bad play by me....

[TGJB]

I couldn\'t get out of NY, advised Roger Neubauer, we didn\'t do any good. (15th out of 140 early day 2, took shots and tapped, like last year). On my own bets broke even for the 2 days, thanks to the South American and Mike Smith\'s Atigun ride. At least one regular poster here did a WHOLE lot better.

Meanwhile, pretty good story re the contest, which as always I\'ll point out was my idea:

Christian Hellmers, a California guy who used to be Betfair\'s rep in the U.S., is a friend of mine. He uses our data (along with a lot of trip stuff), and finished second last year, leading the whole second day until another guy bet 10k to win on Drosselmeyer.

So this year he hit a $1,000 two horse exacta box on the FM Turf, took the lead, and nursed it through the second day. In the last race he bet 2k to win on Fort Larned. (His girlfriend bet 4k on FL herself, don\'t ask, I have no idea). Only to find out...

THE SAME GUY bet 7k on FL, plus a $300 exacta over MMM.

So there Christian was, rooting his horse home, only to find out he would have been better off losing the photo (170k first prize).

[alm]

Have not posted here for quite some time, but entered my FIRST contest at the BCBC and came away with complete confirmation that I quit posting on Thorograph for the right reason.

For what it is worth, anyone sitting near me at the contest heard me say on the first day that Baffert would not win a race and Game on Dude would not hit the board in his race.  I can get you witnesses.

How could I make these ridiculous(?) claims?  Because none of Baffert\'s horses had numbers at the top of their fields and the Dude was not even among the top five horses in the Classic in terms of his numbers.  

I\'m not going to say where I got such numbers, because my approach would be so terribly ridiculed here.  Let\'s just say that I was able to spot the superfecta in the Classic and keep some balance in the contest standings by hitting the tri.  My side betting was pretty good, where I could go horizontal...my natural strength.

A note to someone who posted on the Dude\'s \'bad\' ride, not going to the front.  According to the numbers I was viewing, this horse had NO chance of getting to the front against this field.  Going into the first turn I said to the guys at my table, \'he\'s done already.\'

And to the first wise guy who asks, if you\'re so smart why didn\'t you win the contest?  Answer, I got killed by Europeans over and again.  No numbers.  Thank you and goodbye.

[miff]

1 PATRICK MCGOEY $85,341.00 Q
2 CHRISTIAN HELLMERS $74,525.00 Q
3 DUSTIN MOORE $62,400.50 Q
4 DUKE MATTIES $52,000.50  
5 WENDY LONG $45,603.50 Q
6 ALICIA TERESI $41,655.00 Q
7 ALAN HOFFMAN $36,170.00 Q
8 TOMMY MASSIS $29,811.00  
9 KEVIN MCFARLAND $26,745.50  
10 JAMES BENES

[rob]

RE: For what it is worth, anyone sitting near me at the contest heard me say on the first day that Baffert would not win a race and Game on Dude would not hit the board in his race. I can get you witnesses.


 Wow... that\'s a fantastic prediction. Give me your address so I can send you a box of chocolate chip cookies to pass out to your witnesses.

[TGJB]

Even if you don\'t post here again hopefully you will read a post I hope to be able to make later today-- have to get permission to pass on what I know. Might cast a somewhat different light on things.

[P-Dub]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Even if you don\'t post here again hopefully you
> will read a post I hope to be able to make later
> today-- have to get permission to pass on what I
> know. Might cast a somewhat different light on
> things.


You have my permission. Can\'t wait to hear this.

[jimbo66]

Alm,

Your post is nonsense.  There are no credible numbers anywhere where Game on Dude was not a top 5 contender.  Very easy to say that after the race.  But also foolish to say it after the race.  The world is full of red-boarders.

There are many on this board who don\'t only look at TG numbers, but look at Beyers, pace figures, trip handicap, compression figures, etc.etc.  And based on any of those measures, Game on Dude was a strong contender.  You want to play him to bounce as Covello did, good call.  But saying he wasn\'t fast enough on figs to be in the top 5 is just plain foolish.  

Can you please log in on Wednesday and tell us who you thought was going to win the election?

[Boscar Obarra]

I think I know where he got those numbers.

 Someone bought an old Kelco Calculator off Ebay just before the Cup.

[Rick B.]

alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I got killed by Europeans over and again.
> No numbers.  Thank you and goodbye.

Sound like you used relative newcomer \"AccuRacing\",
for $5 a card.

Hey, you get what you pay for.

* I * had numbers on most Euros, excellent analysis,
strike that, damn near uncanny analysis...and I had
my most successful BC to date.

Not redboarding at all, anyone can check and see who
TG recommended.

[BitPlayer]

Rick B.-

I just checked the Analysis for Saturday (Friday\'s is no longer available).  I\'m not seeing where any of the recommended wagers hit. I\'m not criticizing the data, but the uncanny analysis seems like it must have been yours.

[Rick B.]

Mike, did you get that from Tim Schram?
Looks almost exactly like what he sent me
in reply to my e-mail this morning.

Hey, industry rags and scribes, where\'s the
story and final standings on this contest?

These contests have simply blown up in
popularity -- why is the reporting on them
so slow and slipshod?

[Rick B.]

I should have said \"Audio Seminar\".

Sorry for the confusion.

[justwin]

Rick,
I have to say, I paid for the seminar and the TG #\'s. The TG #\'s and analysis were great but i still, lost. Didn\'t play the pick 3 or 4\'s and keyed the wrong horse on top for the wins and for the most part my major exacta plays. I boxed exactas and tri\'s for the most part per TG analysis and it was great on Friday but I didn\'t hit anything on Saturday. Don\'t take this the wrong way, the losses were not because of the #\'s or the analysis but the way I played it. The #\'s were great. But don\'t expect everyone to be a winner due to the TG #\'s. even Jerry broke even.I learned some more this weekend, especially handicapping the ouchy horses.Great work by TG regardless of my stupidity.
George

[TGJB]

Basically, the ones who used the data, seminar  and analysis for multiple race bets did very well, the ones who played within the races (which is how I did the analysis and to a large extent bet myself) not so much. Almost all my multiple race bets were pick 6\'s,and the 5 of 6\'s the first day kept me from losing overall.

We were way behind on doing days around here so no idea when we will get the BC sheets up. But I can\'t resist-- I really, really wish Friedman would post full sheets for all the BC races. There were several really important differences, and they all were in our favor.