Author Topic: O2X Arcana  (Read 1090 times)

SoCalMan2

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O2X Arcana
« on: December 14, 2012, 01:29:20 PM »
Question for 02X experts.  What happens if the X of the 02X is a dead rail X?  Is it extra good?  Is it not a true 02X?  Is it possible the dead rail and the 02X cancel each other out?  Any insight would be helpful.

TGJB

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Re: O2X Arcana
« Reply #1 on: December 14, 2012, 02:08:39 PM »
Since the idea is to in effect to regard the X as not measningful anyway, it can\'t be a bad thing.
TGJB

dannyboy135

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Re: O2X Arcana
« Reply #2 on: December 14, 2012, 03:56:08 PM »
JB. Help me with 02x. I have a 2 year old filly. She runs 18 17 12 14 x. Do you play her to run back to the 12??

TGJB

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Re: O2X Arcana
« Reply #3 on: December 14, 2012, 04:14:18 PM »
Assuming 4 weeks between all starts, they\'re all on dirt, the x isn\'t too terrible, and no distance or trainer changes, she could be a play. The point of betting that pattern is not that 0-2-x\'s automatically lead to tops. It\'s that 2 big efforts often understandably lead to an off race, and there\'s a good chance the horse will rebound. Combined with the public dramatically overstating the importance of a horse\'s last race in the odds today, the result is often an overlay.

But there are lots of nuances to this. How big the top (and/or X) are, surface (grass horses seldom X so when they do it\'s more indicative), time between races (short rest after the X may not give the horse time to load up for a good one, extra rest before it makes the X more indicative)...
TGJB

dannyboy135

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Re: O2X Arcana
« Reply #4 on: December 14, 2012, 05:33:56 PM »
Understood. Thx