Aqueduct 6th today

[FrankD.]

Gulfstream was sloppy,yielding and a couple were off the turf and nothing else too juicy caught my attention today so I took a rare gander at the Big A this time of year. A complete disgrace of a race meet I know but we all need a fix now and again.

A friend had a horse in the 2nd race who aired as advertised and I was rewarded with a $19 double, $44 & $35 pick 3\'s topped off by a whooping $59 pick 4!!!!!!!

So with my windfall I played a late pick 4 and I know Boscar had to see this exacta board in the 6th race. The 8 a Levine horse was7/5 and the 10 was taking some play as a solid 2nd choice and that was reflected in the will pays.
However: A first time starter the 4 horse was dead on the board with everyone but the 6. The 4 was hovering around 7/1 and went off @ 5.60/1 while the 6 was 7/2 or so and off @ 5.90/1. The 4/6 was showing $36.00 while the 6/4 was coming back $20.00, while the 7/5 favorite with the 4 was $56 & $73 respectively and completely dead with the 10.The 6 was in play with both favorites as a solid 3rd choice.

A small Saturday pool by any standards but still 273k and a very disproportionate number for sure. But in vintage inner track fashion the 4 stumbled at the start the 6 played ping pong with 2 others at the break and an impossible 32/1 goes coast to coast and wins by 6.

Oye Vey is this really the best they can do?

Good luck,

Frank D.

[P-Dub]

Agree that the racing quality is pretty bad. But a $66 horse for a lousy race cashes the same as if it were a stakes race.  It wasn\'t impossible for all of us.

[Boscar Obarra]

Saturdays 30-1 winner, eminently haveable  by anyone but Andy Serling, who needed at least 7 races to figure out there was a gold rail, and even then he wasn\'t too sure.

  Helped that the 5 outside her got squeezed, boxed, bounced, and otherwise inconvenienced.

  Very little (or no) wise guy money on the winner in the exacta pools, they knew nothing. That seems to be a pattern these days.


  \"The New York State Racing and Wagering Board is conducting an investigation into the short payoffs produced from Thursday\'s sixth race at Aqueduct won by Everyotherdayhero, who paid $63 to win.\"

6th Race Chart


  I didn\'t have the race up , but noticed the \'bad\' payoff after the fact. I guarantee you one thing, they will find NOTHING, because there\'s nothing to find.


 PS  I mentioned something a few months back and got some stuff back about computer guys betting late, yadda, yadda. WRONG then ,wrong now.

 Someone is running a program all over the country that bets significant money well before the bell in the exacta pool, badly skewing the payoffs on all manner of combos.

 I haven\'t done a real study to see if they are winning on those plays, but if you look up and see some exacta that should be 200 paying 40, 15 mtp, its them, not me.

[FrankD.]

I\'m a bit sorry I even started this string yesterday but IMHO I need to make a couple of statements here. What the heck, we need to stir the board a bit; it\'s kind of dead until the triple crown preps get juicy.

P-Dub & Boscar both seem to think everyone on the planet should have had the 32/1 shot in the 6th yesterday. After all it was a golden rail?

The first 5 races had a total of 32 horses and the biggest price was $ 5.30. Granted most of these pigs have never passed another horse in their careers so why not bet the best horse in the race with speed?

The 6th was a combo of a rugby scrum and a roller derby jam (sorry many of you are too young to remember it) as described by Boscar above. The only horse that did not get mugged was the 1 from the rail and he did go coast to coast.Read the charts it looks a police report with the non victims all ridden by wide Mike!

The 7th and 9th were wire jobs by the usual suspects Englehart & Rudy Rod with the Englehart piece getting the award for biggest price of the day at 4/1 besides the obvious 32/1 shot!!!
While the 8th saw an even money stalker in a 5 horse field go by the quiting 2/1 shot who had an easy lead with a 49 half and faded to 3rd.

So we had 9 races, 60 horses ran, 5 favorites, 2 2nd choices, a 3rd choice and a 32/1 shot in a race on a racing program that should have a line drawn through the whole day.

I must be missing something after 39 years of watching races; how obvious this horse was and how in the f\'in world to you make any reasonable observations about  a day like yesterday???

Good luck and No more Big A until April for this T-generate,

FD

[Boscar Obarra]

Nah, nothing obvious about it or it would have been 3-1 not 30.  Just sayin, if you don\'t mind reaching in a bad race, there were more than enough signs. Certainly nothing anyone would be unloading on , unless your name is Maggie. She was smiling broadly after the race, but don\'t recall her mentioning the horse.    Getting 30-1 in NY these days is like getting 100-1 elsewhere.

 The cards are an abomination. Amazing  Nyra keeps the handle up , must be out of habit.

[Holybull]

What?  P-Dub redboarding a bomb?  You don\'t say.

[P-Dub]

Just saying it wasn\'t impossible.  Thats all.

Way to take things out of context, as usual.

[P-Dub]

FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'m a bit sorry I even started this string
> yesterday but IMHO I need to make a couple of
> statements here. What the heck, we need to stir
> the board a bit; it\'s kind of dead until the
> triple crown preps get juicy.
>
> P-Dub & Boscar both seem to think everyone on the
> planet should have had the 32/1 shot in the 6th
> yesterday. After all it was a golden rail?
>
> The first 5 races had a total of 32 horses and the
> biggest price was $ 5.30. Granted most of these
> pigs have never passed another horse in their
> careers so why not bet the best horse in the race
> with speed?
>
> The 6th was a combo of a rugby scrum and a roller
> derby jam (sorry many of you are too young to
> remember it) as described by Boscar above. The
> only horse that did not get mugged was the 1 from
> the rail and he did go coast to coast.Read the
> charts it looks a police report with the non
> victims all ridden by wide Mike!
>
> The 7th and 9th were wire jobs by the usual
> suspects Englehart & Rudy Rod with the Englehart
> piece getting the award for biggest price of the
> day at 4/1 besides the obvious 32/1 shot!!!
> While the 8th saw an even money stalker in a 5
> horse field go by the quiting 2/1 shot who had an
> easy lead with a 49 half and faded to 3rd.
>
> So we had 9 races, 60 horses ran, 5 favorites, 2
> 2nd choices, a 3rd choice and a 32/1 shot in a
> race on a racing program that should have a line
> drawn through the whole day.
>
> I must be missing something after 39 years of
> watching races; how obvious this horse was and how
> in the f\'in world to you make any reasonable
> observations about  a day like yesterday???
>
> Good luck and No more Big A until April for this
> T-generate,
>
> FD

Complete overreaction Frank.

Nobody said it was obvious, or that everyone on the planet should have had it.

On a speed biased track, a 32/1 shot with the best early pace figures was worth a wager.  Nothing more than that.

[moosepalm]

Sorry for the redboard, but I don\'t exactly know how to get in front of this story at this point.  Check the trainer\'s ROI on TG\'s 4-1 and above.  She has popped her share of head shaking winners in the past few months.  In more than one instance her horses have elicited a \"where did that come from?\" reaction.

[P-Dub]

This is a Thorograph board, thus we handicap using TG data and stats.

First real fig is a 22 1/4, backed up 3.5 in its last (25 3/4) over a muddy track. The rest of the field is an assortment of FTS and others.

- a blinkers on horse with a 19 in its last, a turf race
- a one fig 21.5 with an OP designation
- a one fig 27.5
- the favorite with its last three: 20.5, 14, 22.5.  Last was a route
- a 2 race horse, 23 1/4 and a muddy 16.5
- a one fig 18 1/4
- a few FTS

I never was any good betting maidens with TG. Perhaps some of you are. Looking at this race using TG data its tough to bet the winner with any confidence. Those using different data, such as various pace figures, could at least make a case for playing this horse at generous odds. I wouldn\'t have touched that horse at 10/1. At 32/1 I\'ll take a shot. He had an early pace advantage, combined with a surface very kind to front speed. We are also talking about relatively inexperienced horses, so that is one more variable.

The current NYRA product is not very good.  There are many tracks running comprising a few hundred races a day. If I can find a couple good opportunities at each track, that is plenty of action. I played 3 races at AQU yesterday, one being the aforementioned race. It was a modest win bet, nothing life changing. Today I hit a big mutuel at Tampa Bay and another at GP.  I also can go several days without hitting a thing.


I was in no way trying to brag, I guess what got to me was the \"impossible\", implying that it was dumb luck.  It wasn\'t, it was just a different way of looking at the race.