Yesterday's preps

[jimbo66]

Treadhead,

Nobody is ganging up on you.  Actually sounds like some others, like Michael D., like the Fairgrounds race better than the Gulf race.  

As for TGJB\'s opinion on Normandy Invasion, I would lay 3-5 it is something like:

\"It depends on his next race.  A healthy 3 year old has to get back to his 2 year old top by his second race. If he runs the \"1\" again in the Wood, he becomes a strong contender in the Derby as he could even run better in the Derby and the \"1\" would likely make him a contender even without a new top.  But if he can\'t get back to the 1, he becomes another in the long line of early developers that don\'t progress at 3.  Or at least you have to bet him that way\".

Jim

[Michael D.]

Jim, it\'s not that I liked the Risen Star better, just that I thought the only value going forward (next out) might be Oxbow.

[jimbo66]

Ah!  Ok, so maybe we all were piling on Treadhead....  

[TreadHead]

Trust me, my opinion is not popular in the Twitter-verse either, apparently I am on an island here in that this was pretty much exactly what I would want to see 1st time out for someone with his 2 yr old figs.  An extremely buried effort for a horse that is already proven at 9F on a horse with a running style that will not get caught up trying to stay too close to the pace when more speed is added to these larger and larger prep fields.  But we will see, that\'s what makes it fun!

[Caradoc]

TGJB,

The most important indicator of a horse being ready to run well in the Derby is two good races (pairs and tops) in the final two preps, even if one of those races is run in February.  Normandy Invasion and a good number of other horses who ran Saturday were probably running in their next-to-last prep, and so their performance in that race is really important.  An off race, regardless of whether a layoff is involved or anything else, is a warning sign about the horse’s likely ability to run well in the Derby.

Some horses who don’t have the preferred pattern of only pairs and tops in the final two preps will run a good race in the Derby, but there just isn’t any evidence that it is preferable that the better performance of the two be in the final prep.  In fact I can’t find a Derby winner with that pattern, but can find two who ran well in their next to last prep but went back in their final preps – Monarchos and I’ll Have Another.

In the context of NI, the other factor to consider is the overall magnitude of his 2yo top.  1¼ in November is a huge number, whether he marched forward or not, and it was run months before the other fast horses who ran in the Saturday stakes ran their slower tops. He may struggle for some time to get back to it, somewhat like Mucho Macho Man did.

[TGJB]

Most of the times a horse came in off two good numbers (and in fact most of the time they came into the Derby off any numbers) they had more than two preps, which makes those cases a little different. Also, you may be making an assumption about what # NI ran (though you are right that it wasn\'t a top).

If he doesn\'t get back to his top next time (i.e. was hurt by the big 2yo effort) it\'s a problem all right. Which goes to the it\'s-only-February thing. But I would be careful about lumping horses with a big 2yo top (Street Sense) in with those that need to be developing now. Regardless, until we see his next figure it\'s tough to evaluate him.