Pletcher Comebackers

[TGJB]

I got on Twitter specifically to follow Maggie. John, you have now created a real problem for me-- I don\'t know if in good conscience I can follow that guy. Man.

[phil23]

This seems like an appropriate place to bring up some Dubai World Cup discussion. Dullahan (and Little Mike) both did not appear to fire first out in Dubai. The theory will be though that they needed a race over the track. AK, who in the ROTW in Feb, Jerry mentioned may be sitting on a new top next out, would appear to have travelled well and is now bedded down in the desert. The real question is what to do with Royal Delta. Even is she were to only run her 3rd fastest lifetime fig, with the weight break (4.4lbs), that makes her a very likely winner. BUT..she clearly hated the surface last year (along with an odd ride). So fellow TG\'ers, any thoughts on RD\'s likelyhood of firing this year?  Current best odds antepost are: Hunters Light (who won the two local preps) 6:1, AK 7:1, RD 5:1, DUL 14:1.

[TreadHead]

I\'m not buying into the \"needed a race over the track theory\" and think this is more about the removal of Lasix.  There are not many US-bred horses that can run similar figures off Lasix, it comes from how intensely speed has been bred into pedigrees, and Lasix helps that speed stay.

Have no statistical study to prove this, but the theory would be that horses with similar speed breeding experience a larger drop-off when removing lasix than those with european or true route/turf pedigrees (like a Dynaformer for instance) would see.  (hopefully we all agree that Lasix is a performance enhancer either way, I\'m saying that it is much more pronounced is speed pedigree horses).

If this theory holds true, I\'m not expecting much different out of Royal Delta this year and am scratching my head over the decision to run her back.  Little Mike with the Spanish Steps, I\'m not expecting a good run off Lasix, expecting similar to what we saw on the main track last time, might reach the lead around 8f but won\'t have the closing kick needed.

Dullahan, I would aim for a better run than he showed last out, but anyone expecting him to get near his top figs I think is barking up the wrong tree.  For me, the clear play of the American horses is Animal Kingdom, who figures to run more closely to his best figures off lasix than any of these others.

[Silver Charm]

Neither of.them may run a jump but Tammy has been over there with them the whole time and this has always been the Plan. Its a challenge but they are giving it their best.

[Bigredgoer]

It\'s so blatantly obvious with this guy (@Fourlegsdoc\'s), how does he get away with what he does....Is he that far ahead of the testing??

[Caradoc]

JohnT,

You got me interested so I took a look at his Twitter.  Apparently he visited Drysdale on March 6th, so perhaps it is now time to watch the Drysdale runners for move up tendencies.  Never thought I would write that sentence.

As you often wrote John, your move.

[phil23]

To quote C&C Music factory...

Dr. Steve Allday ‏@Fourlegsdoc 5m
Preparing to travel to Palm Meadows on Sunday. Looking over runners for Mr. P who happens to have the strongest racing stable on America!

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- Not just running bad. Delhomme\'s return was delayed, then he went wrong in his return. Overanalyze ran fair (not loking for an argument), then they said they were running next at Sunland, now say they are skipping this entire round of preps and pointing for Oaklawn.

Meanwhile, after Fairmount pointed me in this direction, and with the help of Andy Serling, I did a little (and I do mean a little) homework.

Pletcher at CD:

2010  21 for 89

2011 6 for 60

2012  0 for 36

Kentucky changed labs in December 2010.

[phil23]

Do we have any info/opinion on Plesa visa vee this particular subject? Kinda makes a pretty big difference too, no?

[Caradoc]

Should I blame you or Andy or both? You have forced me to defend Pletcher because these numbers are off by a lot.  According to Equibase, Pletcher had 7 wins in 41 starts at the fall 2012 Keeneland meeting, and had 4 wins in 13 starts at the spring 2012 meet at the same track. He was 0 for 36 at the two 2012 Churchill meetings.  He was a combined 1 for 4 at the three Turfway meetings in 2012 and did not have a starter at KD last year.  At least according to Equibase, therefore, the aggregate Pletcher stats for Kentucky in 2012 should be 12 for 94.

[TGJB]

Should have said at CD, will correct post.

[ColonelShillito]

This is purely gossip, but I had heard that Pletcher\'s barn had a bit of a dust-up with the Churchill racing office for using up too many stalls and not producing enough starters. I heard one well-connected trainer in particular quip that Pletcher was using Churchill as a \"training facility\" for his second string juveniles and were racing them elsewhere. Perhaps, this led to a decline in the number of quality starters Pletcher had at CD last year.

I would be interesting in the comparison of juvenile runners at CD he started last year as compared to previous years.

Not that I want to defend Pletcher either.

[Fairmount1]

Caradoc,

You are correct that he was better at Keeneland.  JB\'s numbers I believe are in Louisville.  His numbers at Churchill though are glaring to say the least.  Defend him all you want.  If you followed every starter at the Downs last year (at the spring meet I did), it is difficult to accept that he just wasn\'t shooting for that meet.  His horses lacked that \"will to win in the stretch\" (see my notes on Shanghai, Violence, or even his 2012 Remsen runners) that predominate the Gulfstream meet every single year.  Bridgetown was his best effort in my opinion on Derby Day from the Spring/Summer Churchill meet.  His 2012 Spring/Summer Churchill meet totals, 17-0-2-1.    

The total stats you cited make him a 12.76% trainer in Kentucky in 2012.  This is still a glaring number compared to TAP\'s normal numbers year round any state not named Kentucky.

And looky there right before JB says Lab change happened in Kentucky in December 2010....Churchill Downs fall meet 2010, Todd Pletcher leading trainer: 40-9-6-5, 23% wins, 50% in the money, $2.8 million in earnings.  

I am not saying I have the entire answer here.  But if you can figure out places to competely eliminate overbet horses, I\'m really, really interested in playing those races.  For me, with his far flung stable and involvement in big days when I like to consider playing multi-race, horizontal wagers, I like to figure anything out about a Pletcher entry that can give me an edge at discerning whether to use his horse(s), and to what degree, or not use it altogether.  As I previously stated, this is almost impossible for me to do even with hours and hours and hours of study. One angle that seems reliable is when he enters a horse that has been racing for many races and changes hands from a much lower percentage trainer to him.  That first race for Pletcher often shows marked improvement and I don\'t mean just first off the claim.  These trainer change horses for him win with more reliability in my experience although there is not a lot of value in the win pool on those types but I often use them in the multi\'s.

[Caradoc]

Defend him? You must be kidding. I proudly count myself as a charter member of the anti-Pletcherites on this board, as most recently expressed here (https://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,77529,77537#msg-77537) but going back many years to my debate with Classhandicapper and Barry Irwin regarding the double standard Barry applied to Pletcher.

There are two simple points to be made here.  First, if we were going to have any discussion about the performance of Pletcher runners in Kentucky then we ought to at least start with good numbers.  That shouldn’t be controversial.  Second, we have been invited to connect a lab change mandated by the KHRC with the supposed decline in Pletcher’s Kentucky win percentage.  If there is a relationship between the two, then his numbers should be equivalently impacted at both Churchill and Keenelend, both under the jurisdiction of the KHRC.  In fact, the numbers have not been equivalently impacted.  At Keeneland, Pletcher’s stats generally correspond with his overall stats – 8 for 35 in 2011, and 7 for 41 last year, leaving him just under 20% when combined.

If you want to say that there is an issue with his CD entrants, fine, but I’d still like to compare those results with his results at other tracks during the relevant periods; given where they fall in the calendar then perhaps it’s a down time for his stable everywhere.  And I’d sure like to know what the TG run-based performances of those CD runners were.

[miff]

Caradoc,

You\'re ruining it for the conspiratorial minded. Everyone,ahem,knows TAP uses illegal stuff for which there is no test.Such being the case, it is irrelevant which venue is testing.To deflect attention,TAP only uses it at Gulf and Saratoga which coincidentally are the two only meets he points for.

Mike