Orb

[covelj70]

I didn\'t read the individual horse comments. I just read the conclusion where you made Delhomme the \"most likely winner\" so i assumed you expected him to run well given that you thought he was \"most likely winner\"

[TGJB]

There\'s a guy on this site thinks they might not go to KY even if they win at GP. There\'s almost no chance they go if he doesn\'t win or run big.

[covelj70]

Well, that\'s one of the many things that makes this a great game.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion and gets to put their money where their thoughts are

Heck, i could be way off base.

I am just offering opinions

I won\'t be playing him in fla derby but I think he is very live for ky no matter what happens in fla.

[Caradoc]

Jim,

Leaving aside the trainer intent question that you and Jerry have covered, there is also the trainer performance issue.  I doubt whether it is possible for even the best of trainers to make the very fine adjustments in preparation that would be required to have a thoroughbred run in the middle of a campaign what is a really good race (let’s say a 3 for Orb) but not pair his top or run a new one.  Any trainer would us tell there is a greater risk of injury when under-training a horse in the way that would be necessary to achieve that goal.  How else could it be achieved?  Seems like a lot to risk particularly with such a valuable young horse who is primed to become a stud.

I know what you are saying about trainers getting horses ready to run in big races.  Still, the guys who brought horses into the Derby off the sort of line we are discussing only to fall completely apart in the race is not exactly a dinner for schmucks roster.  It includes guys who know something about priming a horse for a big race, such as Mott, Lukas, Shirreffs, Hollendorfer, Zito, Baffert and Kiaran.

[TGJB]

Shug said something after he won his last indicating ambivelance, along the lines of he has to much respect for the Derby to run a horse that doesn\'t have a chance, something like that. If he finishes third beaten 4 lengths-- which will probably happen if he bounces 2 points-- he\'s very unlikely to go.

I know you\'re gonna think this is crazy, but not everyone has Derby fever.

[mbeychok]

Great discussion. I have to agree with Jerry/Caradoc on this one Jim. I have the greatest respect for Shug but horses can\'t be \"dialed in\" like setting your watch no matter how good the trainer is. Sure, a horse can be left short for a race that is a prep but can we really consider that an owner or trainer or jockey for that matter will not go for a win in a Grade 1 for a cool million.

And, consider the horse. He\'s not an Olympic athlete who can call up a 90% effort because he knows he will need a 100% effort in the next race. He\'s going full out and trying as hard as he can so to that point, the Florida Derby for ORB will be an effort.

I actually agree with you that ORB is very, very interesting right now for the Derby. I\'ll wait to see what kind of number he runs in Fla Derby - hope for a pair or a number close to his last and trust that Shug/owners don\'t go all aristocratic on us and put him in the gate.
michael

[covelj70]

\"All aristocratic on us\"

What a great line that is. Love it.

Thanks for the thoughts.

I think Nafger did it with both unbridled and street sense who both lost grade 1\'s by not being fuly cranked for the final preps and Wilkes did it with fort larned this year for the classic but I definitely get the point that its hard to do.

Gonna be alot of fun to see how this plays out

[miff]

Agree JB, but Shug will openly tell you it\'s his number one dream to win the derby.Said that after a few brews at the SPA,like 7-8 years ago.

He believes this horse has a real shot and has not shown any outward sign of going back out of that last race.Also agree Orb must run well in the Fla Derby to go on.

Guys,many trainers can point for a race fairly well but horses just don\'t come with an off/on switch.You need much luck to avoid a myriad of even minor problems that can arise leading up to any race.

Years after the fact Bobby Frankel lamented about the rather minor trouble that cost Empire Maker the derby.In the latter part of his career,he was deadly \"pointing one\"

[TreadHead]

Only thing missing from this discussion I think is a deeper look at what his running style actually is.  Not sure if ppl realize this, but Orb ran a 22+change SECOND quarter in this race and was slowing considerably in the quarters afterwards, his move by Violence really more an optical illusion than a true layback closer getting to an early speed horse.

If he runs this style of race in a Derby field of 20, he will definitely not be the deep closer many ppl are making him out to be in his last race.  His 2 races prior to that, his other 2 victories, he sat very close to the pace with the exception of the first call.

[covelj70]

Tread,

It\'s a great point and one that miff may to me earlier today in a different discussion. I think you guys are both right.

With merrit man going in the fla derby, he may be coming from far back again. Small field there buts tons of pace. SB and lucky day both fly early as well.

[jimbo66]

Jim,

Very bad news for you.  Maybe the worst.  I am in complete agreement with about every post you wrote on this thread, I could have written them.  From the Fairgrounds race to Orb, to thinking that I won\'t bet him in the Fla. Derby and then will like him in the Kentucky Derby, at hopefully a better price.

I say bad news, because lately I am in \"uber-mush\" zone, likely surpassing even TGAB, which ain\'t easy.

TGJB, what odds would you lay right now, that Orb runs in the Derby?  Yes, Shug wouldn\'t chase the Derby with a horse that hadn\'t proven himself.  This one, with his last race and distance pedigree, need only not embarass himself next time out to have already proven he belongs.  

As for many/most on this board over-reacting to the Remsen (your view), exactly how many short priced horses would you like us gamblers to bet on before we start to discount the race and/or figure?  Overanalyze was the chalk, Normandy Invasion was a very short chalk and Delhomme was 3rd choice.  For those that were \"on board\" early with this opinion of the race, a ton of money could have been made, while you wait for more figures to come in.  (I understand for your purposes, you need more data, but gamblers can\'t wait, it is too late to react after all the evidence is in).  As Jim pointed  out, it really doesn\'t matter to us whether the figure is wrong, or the horses just ran too fast too soon, either way they have been dead pieces.  As for Normandy Invasion, he COULD run better next time out, but I will be willing to bet that there will be no value in betting that he does.  Too many people are willing to forgive his last race, for him to become a \"good bet\" (that is a guess, have to wait till 5 minutes to post to see if that is true or not).

Jim, the only thing I worry about with Orb, besides injury of course, is that his bandwagon is pretty full.  He was 12-1 ML last time, and I was thrilled to bet him at that price, but then was shocked to see him as the 2nd choice in the will pays to the pick-3 I had bet.  

Thread, the fact that the horse has the versatility to run a 22 second 2nd quarter, when he needs to, on a track like Gulfstream, just adds to his appeal IMO.  He won\'t be near a hot Derby pace.  Racing 1 1/4 at Churchill is way different than 1 1/16 at glib Gulfstream.  

Jim

[TGJB]

I bet against Overanalyze and Normandy Invasion last time.

[big18741]

Tread

I think a lot of the horses in the FOY were running sub 23 second quarters if you look at the chart.

Orb breaking from the rail was seventh at the first call of that race in front of only the Cali shipper from the 8 hole who didn\'t have much gate speed and the Barry Rose 120-1 shot who I might be able to beat into the turn.

In four of his races he\'s been last at the first call and in his other one he was ninth of ten.I\'m guessing in a fast paced ten furlong race at CD you\'d find him dropping out the back early and doing his best running late.

Slower paced allowance race at GP he\'s versatile enough to stay close or even in the FOY because of the strip they want him to stay in contact but in the Derby I think a different ballgame.If he makes it there.

[SoCalMan2]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"All aristocratic on us\"
>
> What a great line that is. Love it.
>
> Thanks for the thoughts.
>
> I think Nafger did it with both unbridled and
> street sense who both lost grade 1\'s by not being
> fuly cranked for the final preps and Wilkes did it
> with fort larned this year for the classic but I
> definitely get the point that its hard to do.
>
> Gonna be alot of fun to see how this plays out


With all due respect, I am not so sure this is an accurate rendition of what Nafzger or Wilkes did. Admittedly the sample size is small and the three horses are very very different, but they do not look to me like the horses were not cranked up in their final preps.  I do not know whether trainers can \"throttle\" a horse back or not and am not talking about whether that is possible or not.  I am only saying that these three examples do not look to me like last preps were the horse was not wound up.

Unbridled\'s prep before the Derby was the bluegrass where he matched his lifetime top.  Matching a lifetime top does not look to me like he was eased up on.  With the benefit of knowing his big jump up new top in the Derby, maybe you can look back and say he was eased up on going into the Blue Grass, but if you put your thumb over the Derby Figure, he looks like a horse being pushed to develop....not being eased up on.  The sheet is in the archives and speaks for itself.


Street Sense is a completely different horse.  He ran fast enough to win the Derby as a 2yo, so in the course of his three year old prepping (which consisted of only 2 races) development and new tops were not in any way a consideration.  I think that if Street Sense had run a new top before the Derby, people would have thought that Nafzger was crazy.  Thus, it seems like Nafzger purposefully gave Street Sense a longer than 4 month break between his last 2yo race and his first 3yo race. My guess is that by giving him such a big break before racing him again, he knew the horse would be rusty and need a race or two before getting back to his prior form.  Maybe that can be viewed as easing up on him, but I do not think you can characterize the Blue Grass as an easing up from the Tampa Bay Derby.   They were both very fast figures for a pre-Derby 3yo (1.5 and 2.25). The only possible sense you could look at the 2.25 and say it was an easing up is to simply look only at the number and ignore a lot of other important factors.  The Tampa race was Grade III and the Blue Grass was Grade I. Street Sense won the Grade III by a nose and lost the Grade I Blue Grass by a nose.  I would contend that the 2.25 in the Bluegrass was a better performance than the 1.5 at Tampa.  The Blue Grass was run on an artificial surface that simply was not producing comparable figures to dirt at the time.  This was especially true at that time because all jockeys seemed to conclude that the best way to race was to crawl early together.  This particular Blue Grass had an EXTREMELY slow pace....first half was 51 and 2 and the three quarters was 1:16 and 3..it got a deserved slow pace designation on the sheet. On top of that, he was 4w4w so he was actually running faster fractions than the horses inside of him on the turns YET he had to close into their crawling (slower than his) fractions. While the 2.25 is slower than 1.5 in absolute terms, if you take into consideration the surface switch, the pace, the fact that he had to close into such a pace while running faster fractions, and yet he only lost a better prep race by a nose, I do not think it is fair to say that race reflects an easing up or not having him wound up for the race. Again, he did come back to his 2yo top and win the Derby next out, but I view that as more of a function of the 4 month layoff and 2 prep plan.  If the Blue Grass had been run on Dirt in normal conditions, it could have easily been something like a zero or certainly faster than a 1.5.

As far as Fort Larned, with exception of one race where he had an excuse (in June), he ran 5 straight minus 1s going into the classic.  In the Classic, he ran a minus 1.75.  Again, the only way you can say he was easing up on him in the last prep is if you look in retrospect based on the new top in the classic.  There is no way handicapping the classic you could look at that sheet and say he did not have him wound up before.

If you want to credit Derby winning trainers with not having their horses fully cranked up in their last Derby prep, it would seem to be by perusing the archives, that you need to credit D. Wayne Lukas (Thunder Gulch), John Ward (Monarchos), and John Servis (Smarty Jones).  I have never heard anybody say that D. Wayne Lukas eases up on horses on the Derby Trail, but, if you are looking for horses who appear to have \"managed\" reactions prior to their Derby win, Thunder Gulch is a real candidate.  N.B. I did not include Swale because his bad prep was obviously either a result of the sloppy surface or some other issue where his ease up was actually a clear X.

[covelj70]

SoCal,

Thanks for the thoughtful response.  Great points. This is turning into a much more interesting dialogue than I expected as I dont\' think this is a controversial issue at all.

I think we all may have to agree to disagree on this one.

I have 100% absolute belief that one of the arts of training a horse is having a horse ready to run their best races on the biggest days.

Some of the things a trainer can do or not do when wanting to have a horse fully cranked for a race include:

1) breezing them more often than normal (every 6 days instead of every 7 or

2) stronger longer gallops in between breezes as opposesed to lighter gallops, just jogging or so called \"half and half\" (just jogging for half of the morning work and then galloping for the rest of the morning work)

3) Breezing in company as oppossed to alone (huge huge difference here)

4) length of breezes (6 and 7f breezes obviously get a horse fitter than 4 and 5f breezes)

5) how much a trainer tells the exerecise rider to gallop out after the breeeze (ie. shut down right after the wire or keep going all the way around the turn

6) then (and this is the most important one), there is ALOT of LEGAL I repeat LEGAL vet work that can be done on a horse that allows them to perform at the top level.  Maybe Sight or others would like to go into detail on such things but the key here is that alot of these legal things that can be done have diminishing marginal impact.  The more you do it, the less it helps.  Waiting to do the vet work before the big race instead of the prep can make all the difference in the world.

These are just some of the things that I think a trainer can do or not do to have a horse primed for a top effort (or not).  There\'s no way Shug is going to dial up all of these knobs for the Florida Derby.  

Orb may pair up in the Fla Derby just like Fort Larned did before the classic but I know that Wilkes didn\'t dial up all of the knobs before the classic and I know Nafger didn\'t do it with either of his Derby winners either. MAybe if Shug dialed up all the knobs, Orb could run a 2 negative next weekend so pairing shouldn\'t be confused with being fully cranked.

Let me end it by turning the issue to first time starters.  If trainers don\'t have the ability to manage whether horses are ready for big efforts or not, why do some trainers win 25% with first time starters and others win 3% with first time starters.  Do we think Wesley Ward knows that much more about training that Bill Mott?

All fun stuff to talk about, no better time of year!