Orb

[covelj70]

The deeper we get into the Derby trail, the more I like Orb as my Derby horse:

5 reasons:

1) he has already run a TG fig that will likely be fast enough to win the race so I don\'t have to rely on a horse moving forward to win the Derby.  We all know the studies that say only a few horses in each Derby field run a new top in the Derby for many reasons so we really want a horse that has already proven they are fast enough to win and he has

2) he has the luxury of coming into the Derby the right way.  Shug won\'t have to have him fully cranked for his final prep because he has already earned enough points and Shug certainly knows how to bring a horse into a big race the right way.  I think this is probably the most misunderstood issue on the derby trail.  A horse who looks great in the final prep gets alot of action on Derby day but when they are all in to run that number in the final race, it\'s less likely they can repeat it on Derby day (regardless of the pattern).  So many of the top horses will need a top effort in their final prep to get into the Derby (i.e. Itsmyluckyday, etc) that it\'s unlukcly they can stay at that level for the next 7 weeks.  

3) Pedigree wise, he\'s as qualified to get the mile and a quarter as any of them

4) he has a jock who has won the race before on a horse with a similar running style which I think is very important.  Johnny V isn\'t going to choke on Derby Day coming from off of it.  He\'s been there before.

5) I love horses that have overcome a bias and even though the pace was hot in his last, no one else closed that day at GP.  running against a bias is one of the only other things I consider as a handicapper other than TG figs and I put a big emphasis on it.

I hope ORb runs a dull 3rd in the Florida Derby because Shug doesn\'t have him cranked or because the track is a conveyor belt and we can get high single digits on him in the Derby.

Only caveat is that if Pletcher can get Verazzano to the Derby healthy, they are all running for second as none of this crop is in his zip code but I don\'t think it\'s likely that he can stay sound that long.  Not saying he won\'t run, just that he won\'t be the same horse in 7 weeks that we saw in that GP allowance or even in the Tampa Bay Derby.  And that\'s no knock on Pletcher or anything, no one can keep a young horse running that fast completely sound for 3 months, it\'s impossible.

[big18741]

6- His running style fits with what is usually a fast paced ten furlongs.

7- Post isn\'t an issue since he drops back out of it.

[miff]

traffic/ground loss could be an issue.

[TGJB]

Traffic/ground loss indeed.

But that aside-- Jim, what makes you think he\'s run fast enough already to win? Not only have some horses already run faster, some may in the next 4 weeks. This is when we start finding out.

I don\'t want to comment further right now, but remind me to revisit this post after the last Derby futures pool closes.

Re Orb-- if he does bounce in his last prep he\'ll look something like Monarchos.

[Caradoc]

Yes, if so he would look like Monarchos and perhaps to a lesser degree I\'ll Have Another.  Notwithstanding those successes, generally not a great pattern coming into the Derby, right?  Based on what one can learn from the Archives, there\'s a better than 50/50 chance (14/26) a horse with that pattern X\'s out in the Derby.  That pattern has produced no new tops in the Derby, and only 4 of the 26 who showed it (Prime Timber in 1999, Monarchos, Imperialism in 2004 and I\'ll Have Another) were able to pair.

[covelj70]

All,

Love the dialog. Thamks for the thoughts.

Just a quick thought before my next meeting but

JB, I don\'t think the faster ones will make it to the derby and/or make it in one piece and just as I argued this time last year with I\'ll have another, he will have had plenty of time to get over the 1 by the time may 4th rolls around

Finally, if shug doesn\'t have him wound tight, then if he runs a 3 in the fla derby, I don\'t consider that a bounce.

Re ground loss, definitely an issue but that\'s where Johnny comes in. He knows how to ride a horse from off the pace in the derby.

[TGJB]

This year\'s crop is miles better than last year\'s, and last year\'s didn\'t get stronger over the next 3 months. This one might.

[covelj70]

You\'re counting those remsen horses as part of the \"fast\" ones and most of the rest of us are not.

Maybe the figures aren\'t right or maybe those horses were knocked out by too fast too soon efforts but its hard for me to include those horses right now.

Maybe overanalyze will run big this weekend and Normandy invasion will progress forward in the wood but at this point, I wouldn\'t be surprised if neither of them made the derby so that race might be irrelevant in 2 weeks.

Take out those 3 remsen horses and verazanno who neither one of us thinks Will make it to the gate and this crop is no different than last year.

[Caradoc]

Jim,

If he does run an off race in the Florida Derby, what reliable metrics would we use to determine whether Shug had him wound tight or not?

[covelj70]

Its a great question

Part of it is looking at the horse myself and asking others I trust to look at the horse and compare how he looks in the fla derby with how he looks derby week

That said, I don\'t think there\'s any way shug has him cranked for fla derby.

Some trainers know how to point their horses for a big race. Nafger was a Master. He taught his asst Ian Wilkes to do the same. Shug is right there and them some in this category

To me, his next race figure is irrelevant.

Even if he does \"bounce\" in the truest sense of the word, just like IHA last year, he will have had a long time to recover from the big figure.

[TGJB]

I was not counting the Remsen horses, despite having absolute confidence in the figures. Talking about 3yo figures only.

All these things are a matter of percentages. As you saw here , I make Verazzano 50/50 to make the race. But he has SOME chance of winning, as do other fast horses. And Orb-- who just ran a 6 point new top-- has some percentage chance of being knocked out.

Re the Remsen, I\'m having a hard time believing you guys are making a decision about that race after seeing a horse get eased and two others run 3 points off a huge figure in spots they clearly weren\'t being aimed for. Good thing you guys don\'t make figures.

[covelj70]

I don\'t think any of us claimed to be figure makers and you seemed to be missing the part about how I said maybe the figs are correct but those efforts knocked these horses out.

As I said, maybe overanalyze and Normandy invasion run big next two weeks but you thought Delhomme would run this weekend as per rotw so you can\'t say that the efforts aren\'t disappointing so far.

[TGJB]

If you think a trainer has one of the favorites for a million dollar GI, a horse that hasn\'t won one and needs a GI to be a stallion, and isn\'t trying to win that race, you better rethink it.

He has 5 weeks after that to the Derby. Is he going to kill the horse now? No. Will he be tight and pointed for the Fla Derby? Yes. If he goes back it\'s a reaction to the top, not by design.

[TGJB]

What I actually said about Delhomme was \"he\'s getting a late start, probably not by design, so it\'s hard to know what he\'ll produce off the bench\". I definitely did not say he would run, my position was given the post and weights if he did run he was going to win-- based on both his route figures, not just the last one. I haven\'t done the day yet but I would be surprised if it turned out a 4 for him at the weights with the Lukas horses wide wouldn\'t have won, given slow horses were not that far back.

A similar situation happened with Take Charge Indy in last year\'s Derby, where he got hurt in a situation where any kind of good effort with the trip he got would have won.

[covelj70]

You think those owners would rather win fla derby and get stallion money or win the big one?

Those owners burn the money they would get for a stallion deal in their fire places every night