The Matriarch

[jbelfior]

Anyone care to explain what HEAT HAZE did yesterday?

If my calculations are correct, she closed in 22 flat....and she was weaving in and out to avoid running over horses who were moving pretty well themselves.

Not bad for a fily who was off the board in her last two races, had a long year, was cutting back from two races at a mile and a quarter, and showed several slow works going in.

Frankel\'s such a magician he could probably make the mountains behind Santa Anita disappear on national TV.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[asfufh]

Explanation: Heat Haze had 3 or better in 5 of his last 6 races ( a couple at a mile or less) and a 4 in his last in the BC (losing by 2-12 lengths) with trouble prior to a 2 two ago...easily the fastest and  most consistent horse in the race at 4-1 with 35 days rest showing the potential to improve based on his last two races.
The real question is what was up with Musical Chimes.

[Michael D.]

possibly the quickest turf filly EVER TO RUN. look at the fractions she has been running at the end of her races. in her second turf sprint in the US she ran the last 1/16 in about 5.0 flat. do you remember dansili, the horse that finished third in the BC a few years back with JR aboard? that was her half brother, and he put in one of the most incredible stretch runs i have ever seen. heat haze is also a half to banks hill, a horse with a pedigree tilted more towards distance, but she was also an incredible animal.... but seriously, running 1m, heat haze has the greatest burst of speed i have ever seen...... was also interesting how Frankel praised JR (saying he wins with a 50% clip when JR rides for him, which can\'t be true). will only be a matter of a few years before JR has every record in the book.
and how about the price on HH yesterday? you knew post 11 wouldn\'t be much of a problem with most of the horses inside of HH having good tactical speed. she was bound to save ground until the top of the stretch, then her class just took over. i thought 4-1 was a gift.



Post Edited (12-01-03 20:37)

[Michael D.]

just read where frankel said he should have had HH in the mile instead of the F&M turf. sometimes it may appear as though she needs more ground, but many of these one run closers can only put in their best run when they go a mile or less. i think HH is the perfect miler.

[jbelfior]

Michael D--

You\'re right about the one run closers kicking better going shorter, especially the classier ones.

My thoughts were the :22 flat weaving through a full field was mind boggling. I needed DEDICATION in the one or 2 spot, so sour grapes are part of my speech here.

ASFUF makes an even better point. How does one explain MUSICAL CHIMES?


PS: Based on Frankel\'s comment re: Johnny V; why doesn\'t he use him more often???


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Michael D.]

i think JR has been known more as a speed rider on dirt than a turf rider. for some reason frankel started giving every turf mount that bailey wouldn\'t take to prado. while edgar is an excellent turf rider, i think frankel is starting to learn that JR is the second best rider in the game, on any surface. look for more frankel/jr combos in the future....... and Joe, why dedication? a guy on the other board also needed dedication. i just thought she was a bit slow, using any speed figures. as for musical chimes, i wrote \"no idea\" next to her name on my form. i used her a bit, but she could have finished second or last, and it would not have surprised me.



Post Edited (12-03-03 10:11)

[Michael D.]

maybe the TG crew could also shed some light on the HH race. they recommended HH at 5-2 or better, making her a solid play at 4-1.

[jbelfior]

Michael D--

I was at Belmont for both of her efforts in the U.S. Her first try in September was a nice prep in the Noble Damsel---she made a quick mid-race move into a strong pace only to hang late. She toyed with allowance horses going 6f on turf in October where she was hopelessly blocked, but kicked in with a furious drive once cleared. I projected an improvement off of the 2 races in this country and liked the 6f to 1 mile angle. I also looked at the figs assigned to that race with a bit of skepticism. Visually, both of DEDICATION\'s efforts were impressive; + Good post + Clement freshening + excellent value.  
I think she wins it if she doesn\'t get stopped for that brief moment at the top of the stretch. The sad part was I just needed her to hold second. That\'s the pain of turf racing...you\'re a winner two steps before the wire, then you\'re third.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Michael D.]

ok..... makes a bit more sense now. thanks Joe.

[HP]

I agree that Velazquez is an excellent and improving rider, but I\'m pretty sure that Prado is ahead of him in terms of win/ITM% on turf, and that would be one good reason why Prado gets those Frankel mounts. I don\'t have the stats in front of me, but I\'m pretty sure I recall Julie Krone and Nakatani as others who are ahead of JohnnyV on grass in terms of win/ITM% as well, and I think there are a few others.

I\'m sure TG has access to this info and can chime in if I\'m wrong. I am referring to the stats in the new DRF press book \"Go For The Green\", which probably come from Equibase as well.

HP

[Michael D.]

i think \"improving\" rider is the key word here> Velazquez is only 31 years old. he has made his share of mistakes on the turf as he has learned the art. i think he\'s just about at the point now where most of the big name outfits will want his services on any surface. after the race on sunday, frankel must have been thinking that no other jockey would have saved ground on BOTH turns from post 11, and won that race for him. a rather big race, since it might earn HH an eclipse (although Isl would still get my vote).

[Michael D.]

not to beat this subject to death, but i remember the DRF comment when drysdale\'s horse won the otto mile with JR aboard three or four years ago. the line was \"perfect trip\"...... the horse started from post 13, and was about 10-1. (sorry, forget the name of the horse)

[TGJB]

I remember he won a turf race back in 98 at CD, some horse Dickinson trained...

Actually, I thought he moved too soon that day, pulling 3w on the second turn for no reason, and it almost cost us the BC. But in general he has become a top rider, and the HH ride was a beauty. Not many guys would have had the patience to stay inside until something opened up, and if he goes around he\'s third or worse-- it\'s unlikely HH ran the best number, despite giving weight to the 3yo.

Meanwhile, think Julie\'s glad she made a comeback?

By the way, we used the above two regularly when I managed the Wachtel stable with Forbes training in the late 80\'s-early 90\'s, back when Velasquez was a bug in NY and Julie was in Jersey.

[HP]

I think Krone is about the only jockey who has MUCH better stats on turf than dirt. I heard her call a race once (Belmont?) and I almost fell over laughing while I was looking to see where she kept the helium. HP

[Michael D.]

come on, velazquez timed that BC ride perfectly. it\'s solis who blew it on that one run Rahy horse, a horse i bet a ton of money on. i also thought solis blew it on VG that day, letting him get so far damn back. hey, TGJB, if it\'s not too much trouble, could you post VG\'s sheet. it is hysterical how his #\'s moved when they switched from solis to bailey (if it\'s time consuming, don\'t bother with this stuff, but could you also put up the dickinson horse\'s sheet?)