Orb. Wow!

[JoseOcon]

Very nice looking after crossing the wire!

Who will prefer JV ?

[miff]

Only ran app12 lengths slower than Dreaming Of Julia.

[ajkreider]

The number will be interesting.  Indeed, 12 lengths slower than Julia, but that means 10 lengths ahead a decent filly in Live Lively.  The Skip Away will also come out slower than Julia\'s race (8 seconds for that extra 1/16th).

I think the conclusion is that the others were decent races, but DOJ just went really really fast.

[miff]

Forget ORb,DOJ wow,preliminary Beyer comes up like 114 or TG neg -3.TAP would try derby under old system.Fastest 3 yr old a filly as of today.

[phil23]

Given the beaten lengths and ground (Trakus says Orb ran 7 feet more than Lucky) looks like about a two point differential between them. So if Orb\'s 97 is about a 2, then Lucky bounced all the way to a 4.

So...do we give him (Lucky) any chance to get back to his big ones in 5 weeks. Sure doesn\'t seem like the pattern you want heading into Derby.

Conversely, if Orb \"paired\" (within 1 point of his top either way), that is the exact pattern we like isn\'t it?

And full disclosure - I have not been an Orb supporter at all. Thought he would bounce to the moon today.

[FrankD.]

Quite a bounce indeed for Lucky; especially after 9 weeks rest and a perfect trip on the Gulfstream conveyer belt.

Freakishly fast race for Julia; will that knock her out at odds on in the Oaks?

Happy Easter & Passover to all,

Frank D.

[miff]

Caio Bella(4 yr old filly) also outran ORB yesterday 104 Beyer vs 97. Interesting discussion here about fillies in the Derby.

3 yr old Filly, Unlimited Budget, outran Revolutionary at FG, Beyer 98 vs Beyer 93, before ground, 1/16th shorter.


....fast ladies!

[Fairmount1]

ALL are Fast PLETCHER ladies.  Will be very interesting to see how all of these run at Churchill if they are pointed that direction.  

Obviously, Revolutionary and Julia will be.  

Pletcher at FG and Gulf yesterday:

15-6-3-1, ROI $1.946

The numbers (finish time) seem pretty straight forward with the two turn Gulf routes yesterday.  Visually, I thought Orb was not Derby winning material--I saw him grinding slowly to pass \'lucky.  But as pointed out, he isn\'t racing against the fillies so he might be fine against the competition that steps in the gate.  I need to go back and look at the fractions at the points of call to make some more fine line opinions on his race....but I know Julias race was 1:11 and change compared to 1:13 plus for Ciao Bella.

[magicnight]

miff Wrote:

\"TAP would try derby under old system.Fastest 3 yr old a filly as of today.\"

When I suggested one or two \"at large\" spots in the gate a few days ago this is precisely what I had in mind. Or, is running a 114 Beyer in March not \"earning your way in\"?

[Michael D.]

magicnight Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> miff Wrote:
>
> \"TAP would try derby under old system.Fastest 3 yr
> old a filly as of today.\"
>
> When I suggested one or two \"at large\" spots in
> the gate a few days ago this is precisely what I
> had in mind. Or, is running a 114 Beyer in March
> not \"earning your way in\"?


18 automatic qualifiers under the current system and 2 at large spots would probably work out best in the long run. If DOJ remains healthy, she should be in the Derby, and it\'s best she was able to stay with fillies until she did what she did yesterday. With these young horses, we sometimes don\'t know how good they are until it\'s too late, especially at the longer distances.

Anyway, if you\'ve had enough of this toptic, well, stop following horse racing for a while, because we\'re about to get bombarded with stories about how the 114 Beyer filly got left out.

[jimbo66]

Frank

Just one point.  I would not refer to Gulf Stream as a conveyor belt yesterday or this meet in general.  I have seen more dead rails and neutral to negative speed tracks at Gulf Stream this meet than the last few combined.  Yesterday didn\'t seem to be a speed day to me. Have not reviewed the day in detail but I gambled on it and was not looking for speed horses late in the card.  Actually pressed orb because I thought speed wasn\'t holding well

Anybody notice how soaked orb looked heading to the gate?  Not sure that bodes well for a horse that will run in front of 100k plus at Churchill.

[FrankD.]

Jimbo,

I\'ll agree compared to past years it has not been all speed but many days we\'ve seen 50/1 shots run off and hide with very few horses getting passed in the lane.

 I\'m sure you will agree that the Florida Derby and it\'s snail like pace with as much movement as an Indian file harness race on a half mile track didn\'t tell us much yesterday. Shug and crew were adamant about keeping Orb close to the pace yesterday as the first 6 finishers were 1-6 all the way around just changing a couple of spots; nothing behind them ran a step.

My point is it\'s a huge setback for Lucky given the way the race unfolded as he could only pass Merit Man and a 80/1 shot who were on fumes at the end and was no match for the winner.

Just stirring up the Derby stew a bit!!!!

Frank D.

[jimbo66]

Frank

will agree that the Florida derby told us very little.  But not at all because of any track bias.  The race was just too slow overall to be \"defining\".   But it told us a few things:

1.  Shanghai bobby isn\'t any good, at least as a distance horse in his 3 year old season.

2.  Orb is a pretty serious race horse who is getting better.  Even if he just pairs sup it was a better race.  He showed a bit more tactical speed which is always a sign of an improving horse.  Yes, the pace was slow but he was near it\' tracking.

3.  I think it was a pretty bad race for itsmuluckyday.  I had him amongst my top 3 with Verrazano and orb.  I will drop him significantly.

[ajkreider]

I would describe it as a conveyor belt.  What was different was that it wasn\'t fast.  Normally the track is suped up for FD day, but the FD was two seconds slower than last year and the Skip Away three seconds.

Ciao Bella led all the way, while DOJ and Cigar Street were no more than 2 back at any point.  Only Orb came from further back and was wide to do it - while carrying 5 more pounds than CS and CB.  It says his effort wasn\'t too bad, and DOJ\'s was really something special.
 
As to Lucky, normally I\'d say he doesn\'t need to get back to his top, since a 1 or 0 usually good enough to win.  But this year I think it will take something negative.

[jimbo66]

Ajkreider,

Other than 2 chalks, one of them 1-2 and one 6-5, nobody wired on dirt.


For me, a conveyor belt at gulf is when average or subpar horses do we\'ll on the front end.

That didn\'t happen.