Orb. Wow! ... but

[richiebee]

...from my vantage point 1000 miles or so away in Living Room Downs, sure looked
like this colt got two perfect trips at Hallandale. Is there any such thing as a
perfect trip in a 20 horse Derby?

[covelj70]

Come on Richie, your better than this.

Athletic horses with tactical speed and good turn of foot make their own \"perfect\" trips

IHA last year got a \"perfect\" trip in all his races because he had the tactical speed and turn of foot to put himself in a good position.

Same with Big Brown\'s derby and many others.

Orb got a \"perfect\" trip in the FOY because he ran a 22 and change middle 8th of a mile to keep himself in striking distance of a very fast pace and then still had something left at the end.

Its too early to know if Orb is the one but you can\'t knock his trips.

Union rags was opposite kind of horse last year. Nice horse but huge striding, slow acceleration horse so no surprise he found trouble in the Florida Derby and Ky Derby. I think of Revoltionary as same kind of horse this year

Just my two cents

[richiebee]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Come on Richie, your better than this.

I am only as good as my wife lets me be.
 
> Athletic horses with tactical speed and good turn
> of foot make their own \"perfect\" trips.

Agreed, but part of this statement reflects your belief that Orb can sit closer to the pace if necessary.

>
> IHA last year got a \"perfect\" trip in all his
> races because he had the tactical speed and turn
> of foot to put himself in a good position.

Looking back at the chart of the Derby, IHA was very lucky that Bodemeister was a bit short on foundation and that Union Rags was being bad ridden. That was a bad Derby field. To me the best Derby trips of recent vintage were Borel\'s rail rides.
>
> Same with Big Brown\'s derby and many others.

As for Big Brown, just do not lose that frozen sample.
>
> Orb got a \"perfect\" trip in the FOY because he ran
> a 22 and change middle 8th of a mile to keep
> himself in striking distance of a very fast pace
> and then still had something left at the end.
 
> Its too early to know if Orb is the one but you
> can\'t knock his trips.

Am not an Orb hater. Gotta love Shug, even if the people he trains Orb for are too snooty for Miff and not philanthropic enough for Magicnight. Gotta love that Shenanigans, who produced the brilliant Ruffian and the speedy Icecapade, is way back in the pedigree. On a personal note, I singled this colt in both of his Florida stakes wins and cashed decent multiple race wagers, though not nearly decent enough to change my life (or even square up the books after 40 years of wagering). I am not \"knocking\" his trips, but saying that it is highly unlikely that his Derby trip will be nearly as clean.

>
> Just my two cents

[covelj70]

Awesome response.

It\'s been said here before but you should be writing a racing column.

Only thing I take issue with is the lack of foundation for Bode.

Horse ran the first 6f in graded stakes winning time chasing Trinni around so I think what Bode and IHA did in last years derby was very impressive.

Always great to get your thoughts.

Thanks

[mbeychok]

I gotta get in on this conversation regarding 2 \"perfect\" trips. I don\'t think you can classify each as perfect trips because they were so dissimilar. In the FOY, Orb got a \"perfect\" closer trip because he sat behind ruinous front running fractions and did what was expected - close convincingly to win.

In the Fla Derby, the fractions were pedestrian yet he was able to close again in a powerful way and win going away.

Perfect can\'t be a two way street.

I\'m not sold on Orb just yet - he is a mite bit slower than the rest but I\'m also trying to buy into the theory that Shug hasn\'t let the throttle out fully either.

He is a serious contender however who has proven he makes his own trip perfect and that is something to respect.

Michael

[miff]

Jim,

Orb has shown a bit of improved ability to stay closer than his first few races. A serious question remains as to where he will possibly be when they run away hard from the gate on that long CD straightaway.I would not be surprised if he was 10th or worse and 10+lengths off the leader.

Take a look at Orbs isolated internal splits from Sat, kinda ugly. Orb an obvious contender but potential traffic,and race dynamics may be against him derby day.Not sure he\'s faster than many not getting any ink.

Wood, SA Derby and Ark Derby will bring this into better focus. If Verranzano easily handles Vyjack and Normandy on their \"home\" AQU court Sat,we may be dealing with a shortish priced derby favorite to take aim at.

Good Luck in Illinois?

Mike

[magicnight]

My issue with the Phipps family is not their generosity or lack thereof. Maybe they are very generous and are just quiet about it. Who knows?

Where I fault them is their lack of leadership and vision when it comes to the industry in general and New York racing in particular. They are billionaires, and have held the most sway over New York racing for decades, and what do we have to show for it?

Hayward and Campo are hired hands. Phipps is late to his own party, and has swung open the barn doors, minutes before the thing burns to the ground.

Plus, they are snooty.

[TGJB]

Jim-- Jay Privman once said the same thing to me, citing Affirmed and Funny Cide as examples. But not Big Brown-- he was fast enough to overcome an unbelievabley wide trip in the Derby, not benefit from it.

[covelj70]

JB,

I was going to use Funny Cide as an example but I was driving to a meeting so was in a rush and left him out.

Totally agree that he is a good example of this same dynamic.

Maybe even Babaro in his derby win as well.

[phil23]

There may indeed be other obstacles for Orb to overcome, but based on DoJ\'s fig, not be fast enough ain\'t one of them.