Meanwhile...

[TGJB]

How come nobody\'s talking about the unbelievable 3yo filly division? Oaks is coming up sensational.

[miff]

As long as Julie goes away!

[Fairmount1]

I mentioned it.  And I\'m betting against Julia for the reasons that I\'ve articulated about her trainer at CD, obvious bounce to the moon candidate, and potentially a pace problem.  

Beholder to the front.  Julia likely very close to the front.  Emollient and Hatches based on today to the front although I think Emollient is versatile.  Midnight Lucky\'s Sunland score something to behold although that track was a highway that day.  How the track is playing Oaks day will be a big factor on exactly how to play it.  I thought Silsita was sensational at Turfway unfortunately another Pletcher decision which obviously distorts my decisions as I\'ve said.  Rose to Gold and Flashy Grey (?) also in the mix as entrants.  FG Oaks winner is undefeated I believe also.  

Should be a dandy of a betting opportunity.  Oaks/Derby Double is more interesting to me this year than usual.

[FrankD.]

Mike,

Freakishly fast in Florida reminds me of Quality Road who could never duplicate his Gulfstream numbers elsewhere.

This fillie will be 4/5 or less in the Oaks facing 2 or 3 others who have run as fast or faster than the colts. No doubt she can bounce 4-5 points and still win; but if huge efforts early in the 3 year old season knockout colts, what can a number like that do to a fillie?

I find the Oaks much more interesting than the Derby at this point. We\'ll see how the recipients of the miracle waters at Palm Meadows do under super testing!

Good luck,

Frank D.

[miff]

Hi Frank D,

The problem with DOJ is that it will take guess work on just what she will do. I for one will feel like an idiot if she runs off the screen and I tossed her.Julia took it to a nice filly in last and dismissed her with impunity,an ominous sign when horses at this level show up earlier than usual and still finish with authority.

For the record,all this nonsense about testing having something to do with the possible performance or lack thereof re TAP is for the conspiracy minded.You can rest assured that Dr.Mary Scollay and co will be doing their best to ensure proper testing.

No trainers dominate TC or BC races so it comes as no surprise to me what TAPs record is. Run a filter over his 1-32 CD runners, I did not like but a couple.It is not like he ran a bunch of short priced horses and he is usually overbet,many looking over the top to me.


Anyway,there is no argument that Verranzano did not do anything yesterday to scare anyone on Derby day.

Tried to get the Orangemen home last night, they kinda blew the game I thought!


Good luck and be careful with the 800 lb gorilla-esse!


Mike

[Rick B.]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Anyway,there is no argument that Verranzano did
> not do anything yesterday to scare anyone on Derby
> day.

Hi Mike. Hope all of you S.I. folks are getting your
and lives back together.

What if Verrazano simply repeated his last effort,
the bounce at Tampa Bay? Couldn\'t that set him up
for a giant \"bounce back\", right to his previous
top?

Minus 2 and change should be plenty to defeat this
year\'s Derby hopefuls, IMO.

[FrankD.]

Rick,

After the Florida Derby & Wood providing many more questions than answers IMHO a neg 2 in the Derby would win by open lengths. I like many others here thought this years crop of 3 yr old colts was a very fast one?

[miff]

Hi Rick,

Possible but numbers alone are a slippery slope, that neg  fig one turn.where does it say horses all run as fast one or two turns?Maybe V is only a fast miler.Verrazano was very unimpressive yesterday, sat a perfect trip off a hopeless longshot,had a bit if trouble getting by that one and did not draw off from the rest.

Possible TAP is saving the magic move up stuff for the derby to get him back to the neg -2.

Just heard SA derby winner Goldenscents ran a Beyer of 105, like neg TG 1 which he probably will not receive.

Mike

[BitPlayer]

Miff -

Why not a negative number?  Goldencents was wider than Flashback until they turned for home, and Flashback had 8 lengths on the 3d place finisher.