Already Salivating

[richiebee]

... at the prospect of trying to beat an obvious no value Ky Oaks/ Derby double
of DOJ/ Verazzano which will have a probable payout of, what? $12.80?

Can one or both of these beasts be defeated on the first weekend of May? Will
step back and look forward to a solid month of analysis coming from all
corners... TG analysis from the most excellent archives, a chorus of cynicism
from the anti-Pletcherites, the annual contribution from the herd whisperer, a
hearty debate on enhanced testing in Kentucky (and again, 3 of the last 5
Derby winners have come from the barns of the usual suspects). All theories
accepted and acceptable, preferably supported by statistics, facts or at least
a humorous anecdote.

JB, cue up the days/hours/minutes counter to add to the pressure...

[jimbo66]

Richie,

Agree that it will be a super interesting Oaks/Derby Double with many of us \"chalk haters\" having plenty of reasons to try and tackle one or both chalks.

That said, I don\'t think it will be anywhere near that short.

This Oaks field has the potential to be really really loaded.  If the Baffert runs, Beholder runs, the other undefeated Pletcher runs, both Mott fillies run, then this field is really really good.  As much as Julia\'s crazy fast race would dominate them, I still think Dreaming of Julia is 6-5 or so, if the others run.  Can\'t imagine much lower.

Then you add Verrazano at somewhere between 3-1 and 4-1, and the double pays 20.00.  Still short, but it won\'t create as many overlays as if it had been 12.00 or so.

Trying to decide what to do with Julia is going to be a headache for me.  I know I am not playing Verrazano, but Julia\'s run in the Gulfstream race was eerily reminiscent to me of the Oaks run by Rachel Alexander.  When they announced she would come back in the Preakness, I was sure she was a bet against.  Stood with a beautiful Black Eyed Susan\'s horse and was live to about 10 horses in the Preakness, none of them named Rachel.  (stupid bet, I kow).  I was warned before the race by another longtime poster here that she was well within herself in the Oaks, despite the big figure.  Many times those \"gut wrenching\" \"on the belly\" races are the ones that gut a horse.  Dreaming of Julia was pretty much within herself, despite the huge figure.  Not sure it \"gutted her\".  I am MUCH more worried about the Pletcher factor, than I am, the bounce.

Jim

[TGJB]

Rachel bounced 3 points in the Preakness. If DOJ does that she doesn\'t have a lot to worry about. But I\'m right there with you on the Pletcher-in-Ky thing, and we\'ve never had a chance to see what a number that big can do to a) a 3yo, b) a filly, c) anybody.

Richie-- The first three of those five Derbies came before they changed labs.The only one since trained by one of the usual suspects came last year, and had already run a big figure in California, where testing may be as tough as it will be on Derby day-- unless they do true OOC testing starting more than 72 hours out.

From what I have been told the intervals being used for EPO not to test are 14 and 4 days out.

[Deadrockstar]

What did Julia run? neg 6?

[Lost Cause]

Deadrockstar Wrote:
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> What did Julia run? neg 6?

I think negative 7 was the best ever by Midnite lute so it was more than neg 7.

[Fairmount1]

You failed to mention the rising tension between passionate posters including the host about their convictions on many subjects.....tis the Derby season.....

I usually look forward to Mjellish making his appearance so I can learn his betting strategies.  And he has re-emerged at just the right time.